Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins, 4-30-18 – Pick & Preview

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins, 4-30-18 – Pick & Preview

Philadelphia Phillies (16-9) vs Miami Marlins (7-18)

Date : 04/30/2018
Time : 7:10 PM
Location : Marlins Park

Pick, Prediction, & Preview:

Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins

The Miami Marlins are set to open another 3 game home series as they will play host to National League East rival in the Miami Marlins. These two teams met for a series in Philadelphia from 4/5-4/8 where Philadelphia won the set 2-1. These two teams will not meet again until 7/13 for another 3 game series in Miami.

Philadelphia Phillies's Latest Performance :

2-Man Show

The Philadelphia Phillies have come together under their first-year manager Gabe Kepler as they are in prime position to not only make the playoffs via Wild Card but give the top team in the NL East a run for their money. The Phillies have a bunch of young homegrown talent who have started to come together and have different guys who can produce on any given night. The Phillies were able to close out a series against the Atlanta Braves with a nice 7-3 win behind the bats of Odubel Herrera and Jorge Alfaro who produced all 7 runs. Odubel Herrera has been one of the best hitters on the Phillies as he is batting .348 and he enjoyed a good ballgame on 4/27 against the Braves where he went 2 for 4 from the plate with 4 RBIs as he was able to hit 2 HRs. Jorge Alfaro has not been a consistent MLB player over the last 2 years as the most games he has played in is 29 so his offense is still developing. Alfaro may only be batting .208 on the season, but he was able to enjoy a nice game from the plate as he went 3 for 4 with 1 HR and 3 RBIs. Aaron Nola was able to do just enough from the mound to secure the Phillies a win as he went 7 innings giving up 3 earned runs and the Phillies had their closer Hector Neris come in and close his 5th game of the season as he struck out 3 guys.

Miami Marlins's Latest Performance :

Starting Pitching Improving

The Miami Marlins don’t have the offensive firepower they once had and they don’t field a great pitching staff, but that is all expected out of a team that is going through a full rebuild. The Marlins have thrown a bunch of guys who may not be ready to play in the MLB right now out on the field which may translate into bad results but has an end goal of having your young guys gain experience and confidence. The young starting pitchers have gained some of that confidence as of recent as they have steadily improved. Jose Urena had a great 2017 campaign with the Marlins as he went 14-7 with a 3.82 ERA, but 2018 has not been so kind to him as he entered his last start on 4/27 with a 0-3 record and a 5.88 ERA. Urena was able to give the Marlins 7 strong innings where he was able to bring his ERA down to a 4.91 as he only let 1 earned run come across the plate. The offense for the Marlins struggled to get anything going as Colorado threw 6 different pitchers which threw the young batters rhythm off. The Marlins have struggled all year with the offense as they currently only have 2 guys with double-digit RBIs as the 5th-year 1B Justin Bour leads the team with 4 HRs and 13 RBIs. The Marlins hope they can find more offense out of another veteran in Starlin Castro as he has not homered in 2018.

How Philadelphia Phillies & Miami Marlins Matchup.

Vegas Odds, Offshore Odds, & Odds ATS:

Philadelphia is 16-9, 5-6 on the road.

Miami is 8-17, 3-10 at home.

In-Depth Analysis of each team:

The probable starting pitchers for this matchup is as follows: Jake Arietta (3-0, 1.82 ERA) for the Philadelphia Phillies vs. Jarlin Garcia (1-0, 1.00 ERA) for the Miami Marlins.

Arietta last started on 4/25 against the Diamondbacks where he went 7 innings giving up 1 earned run on 4 hits in a W.

Garcia last started on 4/23 against the Dodgers where he went 6 innings giving up 1 earned run on 4 hits in a ND.

Philadelphia ranks in the top 10 in runs scored while Miami ranks in the bottom 3.

Philadelphia ranks in the top 10 in team ERA while Miami ranks in the bottom 5.

Against The Spread Selection: Philadelphia Phillies

My reason for the pick :

Jake Arietta has been awesome for the Phillies this year as he looks refreshed in his new home of Philadelphia. The Phillies look like true playoff contenders while the Miami Marlins are the opposite of competing. Jalrin Garcia has been good for the Marlins but the problem for them has been receiving run support which they won’t be able to give in this game as Arietta will have a good game. Pick Philly to win on the road.

Betting trends for Philadelphia Phillies:

  • Philadelphia is 5-1 against left-handed pitchers this season.

  • The over is 8-7-1 as the favorite this season.

Betting trends for Miami Marlins:

  • Miami is 1-5 against NL East teams this season.

  • The under is 10-9 with no rest this season.


I am a sports enthusiast and watch every sport from the NFL to the NHL with everything in between. I have followed sports since I was a young kid and have studied deep into statistics for teams, and players. I am always looking for transactions within sports and find in an interest in every game. Playing every sport growing up has led me to understand every game and look for certain trends and stats.