Philadelphia Phillies (16-11) vs Miami Marlins (9-18)Date : 05/02/2018
Time : 7:10 PM
Location : Marlins Park
Pick, Prediction, & Preview:
Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins
The Miami Marlins will close out a 3 game home series at Marlins Park with a 7:10 first pitch as they will host NL East rival in the Philadelphia Phillies. Before this series, these two teams met in a 3 game series where Philadelphia was able to take the set as they won 2 out of the 3 games. These two teams won’t meet again until 7/13 when Philadelphia travels back to Miami for another 3 game series.
Philadelphia Phillies's Latest Performance :
Another Bad Start
The Philadelphia Phillies look like a true contender this season as they have competed with some of the best teams in the MLB, but the Phillies closed out their previous series with a bad loss as they suffered a 10-1 defeat against the Atlanta Braves. A problem for the Phillies this season has been finding consistency with the back end of their starting rotation as Vince Velasquez and Ben Lively have gone a combined 1-6 with a 6.28 ERA. Vince Velasquez got the start in this 4/29 matchup and has proven that the Phillies need to tighten up the 4-5 starters as he was only able to last 4 innings where he gave up 6 earned runs on 7 hits. Aaron Altherr had a good game from the batter’s box as he went 3 for 4 from the plate which was a much-needed game as he is batting .200 on the season. Altherr has been good over the last week or so as he is batting .409 with 1 HR and 8 RBIs in his last 7 games. I still believe that this Phillies team has another level to them as they have started the season this hot without much production from one of their best hitters in Carlos Santana. Santana came over from Cleveland in the offseason where he hit 23 HRs and had 79 RBIs, but in 2018 Santana has struggled to find his swing as he is only batting .160 and has only gone yard 2 times.
Miami Marlins's Latest Performance :
The Miami Marlins have one of the youngest teams in baseball as they have a bunch of different guys who are still trying to figure out their path to success in the MLB, and after a sluggish start to the season from the Marlins pitching staff we have started to see an improvement from the young guys. The starting rotation has an average age of 25.4 and one of the youngest guys on the pitching staff in Caleb Smith has enjoyed a few nice starts to improve his confidence. Caleb Smith entered his previous start on 4/29 against the Rockies with a 0-3 record as well as an ERA of 5.82, but Smith was able to put his best start of the year together to propel him to his first career victory. Smith went 7 shutout innings against a fairly good Rockies team as he only held them to 2 hits and recorded 9 strikeouts in the process. The Marlins were also able to record good outings from 2 of their relievers as Drew Steckenrider and Brad Ziegler combined for 2 innings striking out 5 batters, and resulted in Brad Ziegler picking up his 3rd save of the season. Brad Ziegler was due for a good outing as he has struggled in his 11th season as he is posting a career high in ERA with a 7.71 which is well above his career ERA of a 2.71.
How Philadelphia Phillies & Miami Marlins Matchup.
Vegas Odds, Offshore Odds, & Odds ATS:
Philadelphia is 16-11, 5-6 on the road.
Miami is 9-18, 5-10 at home.
In-Depth Analysis of each team:
The probable starting pitchers for this matchup is as follows: Aaron Nola (3-1, 2.58 ERA) for the Philadelphia Phillies vs. Jose Urena (0-4, 4.91 ERA) for the Miami Marlins.
Nola last started on 4/27 against the Braves where he went 7 innings giving up 3 earned runs on 7 hits in a W.
Urena last started on 4/27 against the Rockies where he went 7 innings giving up 1 earned run on 6 hits in a L.
Philadelphia ranks outside the top 10 in runs scored while Miami ranks in the bottom 3.
Philadelphia ranks inside the top 10 in team ERA while Miami ranks in the bottom 5.
Against The Spread Selection: Philadelphia Phillies
My reason for the pick :
Aaron Nola has essentially grown into the ace for this Phillies squad as he has not slowed down since his hot rookie campaign in 2017. The Marlins have received good pitching over the last week but the thing is they don’t have the offense to back them. Philadelphia was able to put up 20 runs in a game between these two squads earlier and although Urena had a good outing last go around he still has a high ERA. Philadelphia wins on the road,
Betting trends for Philadelphia Phillies:
- Philadelphia is 12-6 in night games this season.
- The over is 10-9-3 with no rest this season.
Betting trends for Miami Marlins:
- Miami is 7-11 after a loss this season.
- The under is 9-6 as the home underdog this season.