NY Mets vs Cincinnati Reds 5-7-18 Picks and Prediction

NY Mets vs Cincinnati Reds 5-7-18 Picks and Prediction

NY Mets (17-12) vs Cincinnati Reds (7-24)

Date : 05/07/2018
Time : 7:10 pm EST
Location : Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati, Ohio

Pick, Prediction, & Preview:

NY Mets vs Cincinnati Reds

Game 1 of the 3-game set between the visiting New York Mets and the Cincinnati Reds will take place at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, Ohio, on Monday at 7:10 pm EST.  The Mets occupy the 2nd place slot in the NL East while the Reds are 5th place within the NL Central.  This will be the 1st meeting of the year amongst these two squads, however, the Mets have won 4 of the past 7 while winning 3 of their last 4 on the road against the Reds.

NY Mets's Latest Performance :

The New York Mets have lost 4 of their last 5 games to where the O/U was 2-3.  They have not won a series since 4-15 when they won a 3-game home set against the Milwaukee Brewers.  Since then, the Mets lost a 3-game set at home against division rival Washington, while also losing a 4-game road set to the Atlanta Braves with the finale of the series being postponed due to weather.  Furthermore, they dropped a 3-game road set to the Cardinals before getting back to form in take a 2-1 series win over the Padres on 4-29.  Unfortunately, they performed miserably at home against the Braves only to get swept in a 3-game set on 5-3.

For the season, the Mets are averaging 4.45 (19th) with a team batting average of .231 (26th), 27 homers (26th), along with 12 stolen bases (24th).  Their pitching staff has an ERA of 4.14 (15th) with 289 strikeouts (7th) along with 10 quality starts on the season (25th).

Asdrubal Cabrera (.327 BA on 110 AB), Todd Frazier (.255 BA on 98 AB), Yoenis Cespedes (.248 BA on 113 AB), and Jay Bruce (.235 BA on 98 AB) have been the offensive stars for the Mets this season.  Amed Rosario (.222 BA on 90 AB) has also been a critical component to the Mets’ scoring attack.

Jacob deGrom (3-0, 43.1 IP, 10 R, 32H, 2 HR, 11 BB, 54 SO, 1.87 ERA), Noah Syndergaard (2-1, 40.2 IP, 17 R, 40 H, 3 HR, 6 BB, 49 SO, 3.10 ERA), and Robert Gsellman (3-0, 15 IP, 4 R, 13 H, 0 HR, 6 BB, 19 SO, 1.80 ERA have been the bright spots for their talented pitching staff.

Cincinnati Reds's Latest Performance :

The Reds have not been able to get much of anything done all season as they are currently losers of 4 of their last 6 games to where the O/U was 3-2.  While the they possess potentially potent hitters that can be dangerous, Cincy has not been able to get timely hits at critical points in the game from others within the lineup, thus contributing to their miserable start to the 2018 campaign.  They will, however, try once again in which to gain some much-needed momentum against the Mets.

The Cincinnati Reds are averaging 4 runs per game (23rd) with a team batting average .242 (18th), 24 home runs (29th), along with 15 stolen bases (14th).  Their pitching staff has an ERA of 5.29 (29th) with 233 k’s (26th), and 10 quality starts (23rd).

Jesse Winker (.302 BA on 86 AB), Scooter Gennett (.293 BA on 116 AB), Tucker Barnhart (.232 BA on 82 AB), and Joey Votto (.259 BA on 108 AB) have been valuable to the offense this year.  Jose Peraza (.294 BA on 119 AB) has also been a pivotal piece in the offensive puzzle for the Reds.

Homer Bailey (0-4) has pitched 39.1 innings for the Reds while allowing 22 runs on 37 hits, 8 homers, 12 walks, and 22 strikeouts with an ERA of 4.81 while Tyler Mahle (2-3) has pitched 33.1 innings and has allowed 16 runs on 33 hits, 7 homers, 11 walks, and 28 strikeouts along with an ERA of 4.32.  Finally, Luis Castillo (1-4) has pitched 34.2 innings while allowing 27 runs on 44 hits, 7 home runs, 14 walks, and 31 strikeouts with an ERA of 7.01.

How NY Mets & Cincinnati Reds Matchup.

Vegas Odds, Offshore Odds, & Odds ATS:

For the year, the NY Mets are 17-12 ATS while the O/U is 15-13-1.  On the other hand, the Cincinnati Reds are 7-24 ATS while the O/U is 15-16.

In-Depth Analysis of each team:

This matchup will pit together two teams that have struggled lately and are badly in need of a win having lost 4 of their last 5 games.  The Reds have played terribly all year long as they have not won a series at Great American Ball Park this season. The Mets, on the other hand, have fared well on the road this year (10-5), however, have lost 7 of their last 11 road games.  This matchup on Monday will allow both teams to somehow hone in their focus and pick up some wins in which to either stay in the race for the top spot in their division, or, simply attempt to climb out of the cellars of their respective division.

Against The Spread Selection: NY Mets

My reason for the pick :

There is no trend that could justify me backing the Reds in this game 1 matchup on Monday.  Despite the Mets now playing some of their most awful baseball of the year, I will pick them to perform well not only on Monday, but, throughout the entire 3-game set.  With that being said, the Mets will regain their form offensively against a lackluster Reds pitching staff and set the pace for the series early on Monday.

Betting trends for NY Mets:

  • Betting Trends for NY Mets

    • The Over is 8-4-1 in Mets last 13 games
    • The Mets are 3-0 in last 3 road games versus Reds

Betting trends for Cincinnati Reds:

  • Betting Trends for Cincinnati Reds

    • The Reds are 0-5 in last 5 home games
    • The Reds are 4-11 in last 15 games
    • The Over is 5-2 in Reds last 7 games


A sports analyst and enthusiast, Filipa enjoys writing articles for NHL, NBA, NCAAB, and, of course, for NCAAF. In addition, he enjoys the true art of breaking down games in such as way as to locate certain trends that can impact future contests. With a willingness to research, construct, and relay information that any reader can understand, Filipa aims to provide the reader with interesting & indepth knowledge for upcoming sporting events.