St. Louis Cardinals (37-33) vs Milwaukee Brewers (42-30)Date : 06/21/2018
Time : 8:10 pm EST
Location : Miller Park, Milwaukee, Wisconsin
Pick, Prediction, & Preview:
St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers
Game 1 of a 4-game set between the visiting St. Louis Cardinals and the Milwaukee Brewers will take place at Miller Field in Milwaukee Wisconsin, on Thursday night beginning at 8:10 pm EST. the Cardinals occupy 3rd place within the NL Central while the Brewers occupies the 2nd place slot within the division. This will be the 3rd meeting of the year amongst these two teams as they have split the last 6 games, however, the Brewers took 2 of 3 from the Cards in their last meeting at Miller Field on 5-30-2018.
St. Louis Cardinals's Latest Performance :
The Cardinals come into this matchup as losers of 4 of their last 5 games to where the O/U was 3-2. Recently, after the Cards would drop a 3-game home set versus the San Diego Padres on 6-13-2018 while also losing a 3-game home set to the Chicago Cubs on 6-17-2018. The Cardinals would go on to lose game 1 of a 3-game road set versus the Philadelphia Phillies by a 6-5 score on 6-18-2018.
For the season, the Cardinals are averaging 4.27 runs per game (18th) with a team batting average of .244 (16th), 89 homers (10th), along with 26 stolen bases (23rd). Their pitching staff has an ERA of 3.71 (10th) with 588 strikeouts (21st) and 30 quality starts on the year (18th).
Tommy Pham (.269 BA on 238 AB), Jose Martinez (.314 BA on 239 AB), Paul DeJong (.260 BA on 150 AB), and Yadier Molina (.273 BA on 154 AB) have been the most consistent batters at the plate for St. Louis this season. Marcell Ozuna (.288 BA on 257 AB) has also been solid at the plate for the Cardinals this year.
Miles Mikolas (7-2) has pitched 90.1 innings and allowing 30 runs on 79 hits, 8 homers, 10 walks, and 66 strikeouts with an ERA of 2.69. Michael Wacha (8-2) has 80.2 IP, 33 R, 62 H, 8 HR, 34 BB, and 69 SO along with an ERA of 3.24.
Milwaukee Brewers's Latest Performance :
The Brewers have lost 3 of their last 5 games to where the O/U was 2-3. Recently, the Brewers would win a 3-game set versus the Chicago Cubs on 6-13-2018, but, would go on to lose a 3-game home set to the Philadelphia Phillies on 6-17-2018. The Brewers would also lose game 1 of a 3-game road set against the Pittsburgh Pirates by a score of 1-0 on 6-18-2018.
For the season, the Brewers are averaging 4.36 runs per game (15th) with a team batting average of .247 (14th), 90 homers (9th), and 53 stolen bases on the year (4th). Their pitching staff has an ERA of 3.47 (6th) with 618 strikeouts (14th), along with 22 quality starts (28th).
Lorenzo Cain (.286 BA on 255 AB), Ryan Braun (.237 BA on 190 AB), Travis Shaw (.246 BA on 244 AB), and Domingo Santana (.251 BA on 187 AB) have been the most consistent offensive weapons for the Brewers this season.
Jhoulys Chacin (6-2, 87.2 IP, 34 R, 74 H, 6 HR, 35 BB, 66 SO, 3.18 ERA) has been a bright spot for this Brewer pitching staff this season.
How St. Louis Cardinals & Milwaukee Brewers Matchup.
Vegas Odds, Offshore Odds, & Odds ATS:
For the season, Cardinals is 29-41 ATS while the O/U is 27-38-5. On the other hand, the Brewers are 41-31 ATS while the O/U is 28-42-2.
In-Depth Analysis of each team:
The pitcher for the Brewers for game 1 have not been named, however, Carlos Martinez (3-3) will come to the mound on Thursday night hoping to end a string of losses and no-decisions that have resulted in his last few outings. In his last start, he pitched 5 innings and allowed 3 runs on 7 hits, 1 homer, a whopping 6 walks, and 5 strikeouts in a 6-3 home loss to the Cubs on 6-16-2018. In his last outing versus the Brewers, Martinez pitched 6 innings while allowing 1 run on 6 hits, 2 walks, 1 homer, and 4 strikeouts in a 5-3 home win on 4-10-2018. Martinez has been credited with 12 earned runs in his last 4 starts while the under is 4-2-2 in his last 8 appearances. The Cardinals were once 5-0 at one point with the right-hander manning the mound, however, have since been only 1-4 in Martinez’ last 5 starts (0-4 in last 4).
The Brewers have tons of experience and success against Martinez in the past as Christian Yelich (.500 BA on 8 AB), Jonathan Villar (.348 BA on 23 AB), Eric Thames (.300 BA on 10 AB). Eric Sogard (.333 BA on 6 AB), Travis Shaw (.375 BA on 8 AB), Domingo Santana (.353 BA on 17 AB), and Manny Pina (.500 BA on 4 AB) have all dominated him in the past. Hernan Perez (.294 BA on 17 AB), Lorenzo Cain (.500 BA on 4 AB), Ryan Braun (.259 BA on 27 AB), and Jesus Aguilar (1-1) have also had much success against the righty in their careers. Orlando Arcia has a .091 batting average on 11 at bats against Martinez in the past.
For game 2, there is, once again, no known starter at this point for the Brewers, however, Ryan Flaherty (3-2) will get the start for the Cardinals looking to maintain his focus and consistency that was illustrated in his last 2 outings. In his last start on 6-17-2018, he pitched 5 innings while allowing no runs on only 2 hits, 3 walks, and 7 punch outs in a 5-0 gem versus the Chicago Cubs. In his last outing versus the Brewers, Flaherty pitched 6 innings while giving up 1 run on 6 hits, 1 walk, 9 strikeouts in a 5-4 road tough-luck loss on 4-3-2018. Flaherty is only credited with 11 earned runs on 31 hits in his last 7 starts while the under has been the play in 5 of his last 7 appearances on the mound. As a team, the Cards are 5-1 with Flaherty starting in his last 6 outings.
Flaherty has not had much experience against this Brewers lineup, however, Jesus Aguilar (1-2) and Jonathan Villar (1-3) has had experience and a bit of success against the right-hander in the past. Hernan Perez, Eric Sogard, and Eric Thames are a combined 0-6 against Flaherty in their respective careers.
While the pitcher for the Cardinals have not been named for game 3, Jhoulys Chacin (6-2) will grace the mound after a very good season at the mound for the Brewers. In his last outing, he pitched 6.1 innings while allowing 1 run on 6 hits in a 1-0 road loss to the Pittsburgh Pirates on 6-18-2018. In his last outing versus the Cardinals, Chacin went only 4.2 innings while giving up 5 runs on 6 hits in a 6-2 road loss on 8-3-2017. Chacin is credited with 14 earned runs on 37 hits in his last 9 starts for the Brew Crew while the under has been the result in 7 of his last 9 starts. Finally, Milwaukee is 8-2 with Chacin on the mound in his last 10 appearances.
Matt Carpenter (.333 BA on 6 AB), Jedd Gyorko (313 BA on 16 AB), Yadier Molina (.300 BA on 10 AB), Greg Garcia (.400 BA on 5 AB), and Kolten Wong (2-3) have all dominated Chacin in recent matchups while Marcell Ozuna (0-2), Dexter Fowler (0-1), and Tommy Pham (.200 BA on 5 AB) have had problems with the righty in the past.
Neither pitchers for game 4 have been announced, however, it would be important to note that both the Brewers and Cards pitching staff have not pitched terribly their past few games. In fact, the Brewers, were it not for a 13-5 blowout loss against the Cubs on 6-15-2018, would have only given up 22 runs in their last 7 games. On the other hand, were it not for a 10-9 home loss to the Phillies on 6-17-2018, the Cards would have only allowed 14 runs in their last 7 games. The problem seems to be the offense for both teams as the Brewers are only averaging a tad over 4 runs per game in their last 8 while the Cards are only putting up a tad less than 4 per game during this time. The finale on Sunday will be interesting to see from the standpoint of how will these two middle-of-the-road pitching staffs approach two cold offenses that have struggled mightily recently.
Against The Spread Selection: Game 1: Milwaukee Brewers, Game 2: St. Louis Cardinals, Game 3: Milwaukee Brewers
My reason for the pick :
Game 1- Milwaukee Brewers
With Martinez being dominated by the Brewers lineup throughout his career, I will back the Brewers to win the opener of this 4-game set. And while the pitcher for the Brewers have not been posted, St. Louis have had their fair share of lulls on offense throughout the season as well. Combine that with the fact that the Brewers’ pitching being very reliable lately, I will choose the home team to set the tone early in this division series.
Game 2- St. Louis Cardinals
While the Cards have struggled this year, they continue to remain resilient in their approach to the ups and downs that they have experienced this season. It is for this reason that with Ryan Flaherty coming to the mound, I expect the Cardinals to rebound and have a great performance to get back into the win column. As stated, the Cards play much better with Flaherty manning the mound and while the righty does not have much experience against the Brewer lineup, I expect him to shine as usual, or, enough to calm the bats for Milwaukee in game 2 to allow the Cards the ability/opportunities to sneak out with a slim victory.
Game 3- Milwaukee Brewers
Once again, the Brewers will come out fired up in this matchup on Saturday afternoon. Jhoulys Chacin will be taking the mound and while a couple of the batters for the Cardinals have had success against him in the past, Chacin has pitched well lately to the tune of being credited with only 5 earned runs in his last 4 starts where the under has been the play in 3 of his last 4 appearances. In all, the Cards will get some scores in this matchup, however, the Brewers pitching will overpower the hitters for St. Louis allowing the Brewers to, once again, get the much-deserved victory in game 3.
Totals Selection: Game 4: Under
My reason for the prediction :
As stated, the pitchers for the finale have not been named, however, I will go with the under on Sunday. The pitching staffs for both squads have been very much reliable in recent outings, however, the offense has not carried the water at all lately. Sunday’s matchup will be very important for division positioning. With that being said, expect a focused and competitive matchup in the finale to where not many runs will be scored. In all, this game will be won on the mound and on defense.
Betting trends for St. Louis Cardinals:
- Betting Trends for St. Louis Cardinals
- The Cardinals are 6-8 in last 14 road games
- The Cardinals are 4-6 in last 10 games
- The Under is 9-7-1 in Cardinals last 17 road games
- The Under is 9-7 in Cardinals last 16 games
Betting trends for Milwaukee Brewers:
- Betting Trends for Milwaukee Brewers
- The Brewers are 8-4 in last 12 home games
- The brewers are 11-10 in last 21 games
- The Under is 5-3 in Brewers last 8 home games
- The Under is 4-2 in Brewers last 6 games