Washington Nationals (40-36) vs Philadelphia Phillies (41-35)Date : 06/28/2018
Time : 7:05 pm EST
Location : Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Pick, Prediction, & Preview:
Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies
Game 1 of a 4-game set between the Washington Nationals and the Philadelphia Phillies will take place at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, on Thursday night at 7:05 pm EST. The Washington Nationals are in the 3rd place slot within the NL East while the Phillies currently are in 2nd place within the division. In their last outing, the Nationals were blitzed by an 11-0 score by the Tampa Bay Rays in game 1 of a short, 2-game set on 6-25-2018. Gio Gonzales took the loss as he pitched his shortest outing of the year in going 1 inning while allowing 6 runs on 3 hits, 5 walks, 1 homer and 2 strikeouts with an ERA of 3.68. The Nationals continued to struggle at the plate as they could only muster two hits for the game by Anthony Rendon and Juan Soto. Blake Snell (10-4) picked up the win as he pitched 7.1 innings while allowing no runs on only 1 hit4 walks, and 10 strikeouts with an ERA of 2.31. The Rays cashed in on the money line as slight favorites (-115) while the over was the play in that the total was set at 7 runs for the game.
The Phillies were 4-2 losers at home to the NY Yankees on 6-25-2018. Vince Velasquez (5-8) took the loss for the Phills as he pitched 6 innings while allowing 2 runs on 3 hits, 4 walks, 1 homer, and 7 strikeouts. Scott Kingery and Mikael Franco were each 1-4 with an RBI each in defeat. Jonathan Loaisiga (2-0) who pitched another solid outing by allowing 0 runs on 1 hit in 5.1 innings of work with an ERA of 1.93 with 8 strikeouts. The Yankees cashed in on the money line (-147) while the over was the play in that the total was set at 8 runs for the game.
This will be the 3rd meeting of the season amongst these two teams as they have both split the past 6 meetings while the Phillies took 2 of 3 from the Nats in a 3-game home set on 6-24-2018.
Washington Nationals 's Latest Performance :
The Washington Nationals have lost 3 of their last 5 contests to where the O/U has been 3-1-1. Recently, Washington would be swept in a 3-game road set versus the Toronto Blue Jays on 6-17-2018 while following this up with a lackluster performance in a makeup loss versus the Yankees at home by a 4-2 score. Though they would go on to win a 3-game home set versus the Baltimore Orioles on 6-21-2018, they would not only follow this up by losing a 3-game home set versus the Phillies, despite winning the finale by an 8-6 score, the Nats would also come out flat against the Tampa Bay Rays in game 1 of a 2-game road set on 6-25-2018 by an 11-0 score.
For the season, the Nationals are averaging 4.19 runs per game (21st) with a team batting average of .239 (22nd), 85 homers, (18th) along with 63 stolen bases (1st). Their pitching staff has an ERA of 3.67 (10th) with 725 strikeouts (5th) along with 40 quality starts on the year (4th).
Trea Truner (.264 BA on 307 AB), Bryce Harper (.217 BA on 267 AB), and Michael A. Taylor (.245 BA on 245 AB) have been the offensive leaders for this Washington Nationals squad thus far.
Max Scherzer (10-3, 107.2 IP, 28 R, 67 H, 10 HR, 24 BB, 152 SO, 2.09 ERA) and Gio Gonzales (6-5, 85.2 IP, 37 R, 83 H, 9 HR, 39 BB, 82 SO, 3.68 ERA) have been the most consistent on the pitching staff while Stephen Strasburg (6-6, 80.2 IP, 35 R, 69 H, 12 HR, 19 BB, 95 SO, 3.46 ERA) and Tanner Roark (3-8, 92.2 IP, 45 R, 82 H, 13 HR, 33 BB, 79 SO, 4.27 ERA) have also been solid on the mound for the Nationals this year.
Philadelphia Phillies's Latest Performance :
The Phillies enter this matchup winners of 3 of their last 5 games to where the O/U was 2-2-1. Recently, they would perform well in a 3-game home set versus the St. Louis Cardinals and would ultimately win the series on 6-20-2018. To follow this up, they won yet another series, this time versus the reeling Washington Nationals on 6-24-2018, despite the 8-6 loss in the finale. The Phillies would, however, come out flat in game 1 of a 3-game home set versus the Yankees on 6-25-2018 and would drop game 1 by a 4-2 score.
For the season, the Phillies are averaging 4.43 runs per game (14th) with a team batting average of .235 (25th), 88 homers (16th), along with 35 stolen bases on the year (18th). Their pitching staff possesses an ERA of 3.96 (14th) with 696 strikeouts (9th), along with 38 quality starts (5th).
Odubel Herrera (.302 BA on 288 AB), Rhys Hoskins (.252 BA on 234 AB), and Cesar Hernandez (.261 BA on 291 AB) have been the stalwarts for this Phillies offensive attack. Maikel Franco (.256 BA on 219 Ab) and Scott Kingery (.224 BA on 241 AB) are also critical to the Philadelphia offense.
Aaron Nola (9-2) has pitched 101.1 innings this year while allowing 29 runs on 74 hits, 6 homers, 29 walks, and 99 strikeouts with an ERA of 2.58 while Nick Pivetta (4-6) has pitched 84.1 innings while allowing 38 runs on 80 hits, 10 homers, 24 walks, and 101 strikeouts with an ERA of 4.06 for the season.
How Washington Nationals & Philadelphia Phillies Matchup.
Vegas Odds, Offshore Odds, & Odds ATS:
For the season, the Phillies are 36-40 ATS while the O/U is 36-36-4. On the other hand, the Nationals are 39-38 ATS while their O/U stands at 31-44-2.
In-Depth Analysis of each team:
Jeremy Hellickson (2-0) will come to the mound in the opener looking to continue his solid pitching streak. In his last outing, he only pitched .1 inning while allowing 0 runs on 1 hit in a 4-2 road loss to the Atlanta Braves on 6-3-2018. The under has been the play in 7 of the right-hander’s last 8 starts while the Nats are 5-1 in Hellickson’s last 6 appearances. He has been credited with 5 earned runs in his last 6 outings. While there is not much experience for the righty against this Philadelphia squad, he has struggled against Carlos Santanta (2-4), but, has owned Odubel Herrera in the past (0-4).
Aaron Nola (9-2) will get the start for the Phillies in game 1 and will look to win his 4th game in 6 starts. In his last outing, he pitched 6 innings while allowing 2 runs on 4 hits, 3 walks, and 4 strikeouts in a 5-3 road win versus the Nationals. In his meeting prior to this against Washington, Nola went 5.1 innings to where he allowed 3 runs on 7 hits, 2 walks, and 8 strikeouts in a 4-3 road loss on 9-7-2017.
Wilmer Difo (3-10), Bryce Harper (.471 BA on 17 AB), Daniel Murphy (.400 BA on 20 AB), and Anthony Rendon (.235 BA on 17 AB) have had the most success against Nola in the past. Adam Eaton (0-5), Mark Reynolds (0-3), Pedro Severino (0-2), and Trea Turner (.143 BA on 7 AB) have struggled against the right-hander.
The game 2 starter for the Washington Nationals is not yet known, however, Nick Pavetta (4-6) will come to the mound once again for the Phillies as he looks to pick up a much-needed win. Pavetta has not won in his last 6 starts being credited with 19 earned runs on 35 hits. He has also given up 5 homers in his last 4 starts while the team is 1-5 in his last 6 appearances. The over is 4-2 in his last 6 outings. In his last outing, Pavetta pitched 5 innings while allowing 2 runs on 8 hits7 strikeouts, 1 homer, and 3 walks in an 8-6 loss at Washington on 6-24-2018.
Wilmer Difo (0-1), Bryce Harper (0-2), and Trea Turner (1-5) have struggled a bit versus the Nola in the past; However, Daniel Murphy (2-4), Anthony Rendon (3-5), Mark Reynolds (1-2), and Michael A. Turner (2-5) have had much more success against the right-hander in their careers.
Game 3/Game 4
The pitchers for game 3 and 4 have not been assigned, however, it would be fair to note that the Nationals are 8-4 in the last 2 games of a 4-game set this year. In all, expect the Nationals to come out of their offensive funk at some point in time. With that being said, expect their pitching staff to continue to hold it down for this struggling team until the offense decides to make a much-needed appearance. It will be interesting to see how this Washington team approaches a team that they have struggled against in the past in the Phillies.
Against The Spread Selection: Picks: Game 1, Game 2: Philadelphia Phillies
My reason for the pick :
I will back the Phillies in games 1 and 2 not only because Hellickson and Nola have been on fire recently, but, the Phillies are simply the better team at this point in the season. The Nats continue to lose (8 of 11 games) to the point to where their offense is not only nonexistent, but, their top ranked pitching staff has been giving up more and more runs lately (34 in last 4 games). The opening 2 games could also get ugly for the Nationals in that both pitchers slated to pitch for the Phillies have had success against their lineup, though there are some within the Washington rotation that have really worked Nola in the past. In all, take the Phillies to set the tone in this series with slim victories in game 1 and 2.
Totals Selection: Picks: Game 3, Game 4: Over
My reason for the prediction :
With neither pitcher being known that are to take the mound for the final games of the series, I must go with the over in games 3 and 4 simply due to the fact that the over has been the play in 4 of the last 7 games for the Nats while it has been the result in 6 of the last 9 games for the Phillies. In other words, both teams are giving up runs at this point and I expect this trend to continue despite who the pitcher may be (minus Scherzer) on Saturday and Sunday.
Betting trends for Washington Nationals :
- Betting Trends for Philadelphia Phillies
- The Phillies are 4-2 in last 6 home games
- The Phillies are 6-2 in last 8 games
- The Over is 5-2 in Phillies last 7 games
Betting trends for Philadelphia Phillies:
- Betting Trends for Washington Nationals
- The Nationals are 2-7 in last 9 road games
- The Nationals are 4-9 in last 13 games
- The Under is 12-2 in Nationals last 14 home games