Cincinnati Reds (37-49) vs Chicago Cubs (48-35)Date : 07/06/2018
Time : 2:20 pm EST
Location : Wrigley Field, Chicago, Illinois
Pick, Prediction, & Preview:
Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs
The opener of a 3-game set between the Cincinnati Reds and the Chicago Cubs will take place at Wrigley Field in Chicago, Illinois, on Friday afternoon at 2:20 pm EST. The Reds currently occupy last place within the NL Central while the Cubs continue to hold fast at the 2nd place slot within the division. In their last outing, though all seemed to be going their way early on, the Cincinnati Reds would lose at home to the White Sox on 7-3-2018 by a 12-8 score primarily due to a rally in the 6th inning to where Chicago put up 4 runs while putting up yet another run in the next inning in which to tie the game at 7 all. In the extra innings, the White Sox would put up 4 runs in the top of the 12th inning when Yoan Moncado hit a triple to not only break the tie, but, proving to provide the game’s most exciting play of the night on their way to the win. Anthony DeSclafani did not factor in to the decision as he pitched 5.1 innings while allowing 5 runs on 6 hits, 3 homers, and 5 strikeouts with an ERA of 5.08 for the game. Jose Peraza and Jesse Winker had 2 hits in defeat while Eugenio Suarez was 1-4 with 2 RBI’s along with Adam Duvall going 1-6 with 3 RBI’s. Lucas Giolito also did not factor in to the final decision for the Sox as he went 5 innings while allowing 7 runs on 8 his, 3 homers, and 3 strikeouts with an ERA of 6.93. The White sox cashed in on the money line as huge underdogs (+210) while the over was the play in that the total was set at 9.5 runs for the game.
The Cubs were 5-3 winners over the Detroit Tigers at home on 7-3-2018. Chicago accounted for 11 hits in this game with Jason Heyward (2-4) and Kyle Schwarber each going 2-4 in the game with an RBI each. Anthony Rizzo went 1-4 with 2 RBI’s. Kyle Hendricks picked up the no decision as he pitched 5 innings while allowing 3 runs on 7 hits and 2 strikeouts with an ERA of 4.27 while Michael Fulmer pitched 6 innings while allowing 3 runs on 7 hits and 5 strikeouts with an ERA of 4.22. Mike Mahtook went 3-4 in this game for the Tigers in the loss. Chicago cashed in on the money line in this game as huge favorites (-200) while the under was the play in that the total was set at 8.5 runs for the game.
Cincinnati Reds's Latest Performance :
The Reds have won 3 of their last 5 games to where the O/U was 3-1-1. Recently, they would win a 3-game road set versus the Atlanta Braves on 6-27-2018 while tying a 4-game home set to the Milwaukee Brewers on 7-1-2018. After winning game 1 of their following matchup, a 3-game home series versus the Chicago White Sox by a 5-3 score, the Reds would lose game 2 by a 12-8 score.
For the season, the Cincinnati Reds are averaging 4.65 runs per game (9th) with a team batting average of .256 (6th), 92 home runs (19th), along with 39 stolen bases (16th). Their pitching staff has an ERA of 4.66 (24th) with 669 strikeouts (26th), and 23 quality starts (30th).
Jesse Winker (.272 BA on 235 AB), Scooter Gennett (.332 BA on 314 AB), Tucker Barnhart (.264 BA on 254 AB), and Joey Votto (.291 BA on 302 AB) have been valuable to the offense this year. Jose Peraza (.274 BA on 329 AB) has also been a pivotal piece in the offensive puzzle for the Reds.
Tyler Mahle (6-6) has pitched 91.2 innings and has allowed 43 runs on 89 hits, 16 homers, 39 walks, and 93 strikeouts along with an ERA of 3.83. Finally, Luis Castillo (5-8) has pitched 94.1 innings while allowing 61 runs on 97 hits, 18 home runs, 33 walks, and 91 strikeouts with an ERA of 5.53.
Chicago Cubs's Latest Performance :
The Cubs come into this game winners of their last 5 games to where the O/U was 4-1. Recently, the Cubs would tie a 4-game road set with the Los Angeles Dodgers on 6-28-2018, however, would go on to sweep a 3-game home set versus the Minnesota Twins on 7-1-2018 with an 11-10 victory in the finale. They would most certainly carry this momentum into their next series as they beat the struggling Detroit Tigers at home by a 5-3 score.
For the season, the Cubs are averaging 5.12 runs per game (3rd) with a team batting average of .267 (1st), 91 homers (20th) along with 36 stolen bases (18th). Their pitching staff has an ERA of 3.58 (5th) with 697 strikeouts (21st) with 33 quality starts on the season, good for 19th in the MLB.
Kris Bryant (.280 BA on 264 AB), Kyle Schwarber (.247 BA on 243 AB), and Javier Baez (.286 BA on 297 AB) have spearheaded the Cubs offensive attack this year. Wilson Contreras has also been critical to the scoring attack with a batting average of .280 on 268 at bats. Anthony Rizzo (.250 BA on 280 AB) and Jason Heyward (.288 BA on 243 AB) have also been pivotal to the Cubs’ success.
Jon Lester (11-2) has been solid this year pitching 100 innings while allowing 31 runs on 80 hits, 11 homer, 35 walks, and 79 strikeouts with an ERA of 2.25 while Kyle Hendricks (5-8) has pitched 97 innings while allowing 48 runs on 91 hits, 16 homers, 30 walks, and 72 strikeouts with an ERA of 4.27 for the season. Jose Quintana (6-6) has pitched 85.2 innings while allowing 44 runs on 81 hits, 12 homers, 40 walks, and 80 strikeouts with an ERA of 4.31.
How Cincinnati Reds & Chicago Cubs Matchup.
Vegas Odds, Offshore Odds, & Odds ATS:
For the season, the Reds are 49-37 ATS while the O/U is 42-39-5. On the other hand, the Cubs are 45-38 ATS while the O/U is 37-44-2.
In-Depth Analysis of each team:
Tyler Mahle (6-6) will come to the mound for the Reds in game 1 looking to halt a string of no decisions in his last few outings. Against the Brewers on 6-30-2018, he pitched 5.2 inning while allowing 3 runs on 6 hits, 1 homer, and 12 strikeouts in a 12-3 win in which he received the no decision while in his last outing versus the Cubs, Mahle would take the loss in pitching 6 innings while allowing 4 runs on 6 hits, 3 long balls, and only 4 strikeouts in a 6-1 home loss on 5-20-2018. The Cubs remain 6-1 in Mahle’s last 7 starts while the over has been the result in 3 if his last 6 games. In all, the right-hander has been credited with 6 earned runs in his last 3 games while giving up 3 homers during this time. In his last 3 starts, Mahle is 1-0 with an ERA of 3.24 with 25 strikeouts.
Opposing Mahle in game 1 will be Mike Montgomery (3-2) who will be seeking his 2nd straight win after his last outing to where he pitched 5 innings while allowing 5 runs on 7 hits, 3 walks, 1 homer, and 5 strikeouts in a 10-6 home win versus the Twins on 6-29-2018. In his last outing versus the Reds, Montgomery pitched 6 innings while allowing 4 runs on 6 hits, 1 homer, and 6 strikeouts in an 8-6 road loss at Great American Ball Park on 6-24-2018. Despite not having a loss, Montgomery is still charged with 9 earned runs in his last 2 outings while the over has been the result in each. In addition to this, he has also given up a homer in each of his last 2 games while the Cubs are 5-2 with him at the mound.
Joey Votto (.286 BA on 14 AB), Eugenio Suarez (.286 BA on 7 AB), Adam Duvall (.273 BA on 11 AB), and Billy Hamilton (.188 BA on 16 AB) have had the most experience facing Montgomery on this Reds lineup. Jose Peraza is .222 on 9 at bats while Scooter Gennett is 1-5. Jesse Winker is 1-1 against the righty in his career.
Game 2 will bring to the mound Matt Harvey for the Reds who has been solid lately and seeking his 4th win in as many outings. He lasted 5.2 innings in his last outing while giving up 0 runs on 2 hits and 6 k’s in an 8-2 home win over the Brewers on 7-1-2018. In his last outing versus the Cubs, Harvey pitched 6 innings while allowing 2 runs on 5 hits to this dangerous Cubs lineup with 6 k’s in a 6-2 home win on 6-21-2018. The Reds are 3-0 with Harvey on the mound recently while the under is 3-1 in his last 4 starts. In all, he has only been credited with 3 earned in his last 3 appearances.
Though Harvey does not have much experience facing those within Chicago’s lineup, he has indeed faced Javier Baez (2-4), Wilson Contreras (1-2), Ian Happ (1-3), Jason Heyward (.250 BA on 8 AB), and Anthony Rizzo (.287 BA on 7 AB) in the past. Addison Russell (1-2), Kyle Schwarber 1-4), and Ben Zobrist (1-2) have also had success against the right-hander in the past as well.
Tyler Chatwood (3-5) will oppose Harvey in game 2 as he will be looking to obtain his first win since the beginning of May when he pitched 5 innings while allowing 2 runs on 3 hits, 5 walks, and 6 strikeouts in an 11-2 home win versus the White Sox. Since, he has been bombarded with a string of no decisions and losses. In his last outing, he was bailed out in a game to which he lasted 5 innings while allowing 7 runs on 7 hits, 3 walks, 1 homer, and 6 strikeouts in a 14-9 win against the Twins on 6-30-2018 to where he received the no decision. In Chatwood’s last outing versus the Reds, he received a tough luck loss going 6 innings while allowing only 1 run on 4 hits, 6 walks, and 4 strikeouts in a 1-0 road loss in the Cubs first game of the season on 4-2-2018. Chatwood has been credited with 12 earned runs in his last 3 starts while the under continues to be the result (3 of his last 4 starts). Chicago is 4-2 in Chatwood’s last 6 starts.
Joey Votto (.286 BA on 7 AB), Eugenio Suarez (2-4), Scott Schebler (1-3), Jose Peraza (1-2), Billy Hamilton (3-6), and Scooter Gennett (1-1) have all had experience and success against Chatwood in their respective careers. Adam Duvall is .167 on 6 at bats against the right-hander lifetime.
Finally, game 3 will bring to the mound for the Reds Luis Castillo (5-8) who will be looking to break a string of no decisions in his last 2 outings. He pitched 6.2 innings while allowing 1 run on 6 hits and 6 strikeouts in a 5-3 home win versus the White Sox on 7-2-2018 to get the no decision. On the other hand, in his last outing versus the Cubs, he lasted 5.2 innings while allowing 3 runs on 4 hits, 1 homer, and 5 strikeouts in a 6-3 home win on 6-22-2018. Castillo has 16 earned runs in his last 5 starts while the over has been the result in 4 of his last 6 starts. The Reds are 3-0 in Castillo’s last 3 appearances despite his shaky pitching.
Albert Almora Jr (1-2) and Anthony Rizzo have had the most experience and success against Castillo for Chicago; On the other hand, Javier Baez, Jason Heyward, and Tommy La Stella are a combined 0-6 against the right-hander.
Jon Lester (11-2) will get the start in the finale and will be looking to win his 9th straight game. In his last outing, he pitched 5 innings while allowing 4 runs on 9 hits, a homer, and 5 strikeouts in an 11-10 home win versus the Twins on 7-1-2018. In his last outing versus the Reds, Lester lasted 6 innings while allowing only 1 run on 2 hits, 1 homer, and 8 strikeouts in an 8-1 road win on 5-18-2018. The Cubs are 9-1 with Lester at the mound while the over has been the result in 3 of his last 4 games (primarily due to the Cubs hot offense). He has only been credited with 6 earned runs in his last 6 starts and will be looking to neutralize the bats for the Reds in game 3.
Tucker Barnhart (.600 BA on 5 AB), Adam Duvall (.280 BA on 25 AB), Billy Hamilton (.368 BA on 19 AB), Jose Peraza (.450 BA on 20 AB), Eugenio Suarez (.296 BA on 27 AB), and Joey Votto (.273 BA on 33 AB) have put up huge numbers against Lester in their careers while Scooter Gennett (.125 BA on 8 AB) and Scott Schebler (0-11) have not fared as well against the left-hander in the past.
Against The Spread Selection: Game 1, 3: Cincinnati Reds
My reason for the pick :
Considering that the Reds have Mahle coming to the mound in game 1, who has certainly pitched well lately, along with the fact that the Reds lineup has dominated Mike Montgomery in the past, I will be backing the red-hot Reds to show and prove in the opener of this series. Keep in mind that they had their way with the Cubs a few weeks ago in a sweep, and I expect Cincinnati, who has now won 12 of their last 16, to come out focus to get a win. With division rankings on the line, they will certainly be looking to use this series as a way in which to pull themselves out of the basement in the NL Central.
While Jon Lester has pitched well this season, he has been dominated by those within the Reds lineup in the past. It is for this reason that I will back the Reds in the finale. Again, Lester has indeed be solid for the Cubs, however, there are some teams that seem to have it all figured out against a certain pitcher. With that being said, the stats paint a picture that seems to state that this is the case with Lester against Cincy. In all, I see the Reds pulling out yet another exciting victory against the Cubs, once again, to win the series on Sunday.
Totals Selection: Game 2: Over
My reason for the prediction :
The fact is that Matt Harvey has pitched well lately, yet, he has had problems facing those within the Cubs lineup throughout his career. On the other hand, Chatwood has pitched some terrible outings this year as well while also being the victim of poor run support during many of his outings. With that being said, I expect Harvey to get tagged in game 2 while Chatwood will continue to regress into what he essentially is: Simply a serviceable pitcher. Take the over to be the play in this game in that the scoreboard will indeed be lighting up frequently.
Betting trends for Cincinnati Reds:
- Betting Trends for Cincinnati Reds
- The Reds are 5-3 in last 8 road games
- The Under is 4-2-1 in Reds last 7 road games
- The Reds are 12-4 in last 16 games
Betting trends for Chicago Cubs:
- Betting Trends for Chicago Cubs
- The Cubs are 6-1 in last 7 home games
- The Cubs are 9-8 in last 17 games
- The Over is 4-1 in Cubs last 5 home games