Philadelphia Phillies (46-37) vs Pittsburgh Pirates (40-45)Date : 07/06/2018
Time : 7:05 pm EST
Location : PNC Park, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
Pick, Prediction, & Preview:
Philadelphia Phillies vs Pittsburgh Pirates
Game 1 of a 3-game set between the Philadelphia Phillies and the Pittsburgh Pirates will take place at PNC Park in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, on Friday night beginning at 7:05 pm EST. The Phillies are currently in 2nd place within the NL East while the Pirates occupy the 4th place slot within the NL Central division. In their last outing, the Phillies were 3-2 home winners versus the lowly Baltimore Orioles on 7-3-2018. The Phills cashed in on the money line as favorites (-170) while the under was the play in that the total was set at 9 runs for the game. Philadelphia had only 5 hits for the game with Mikael Franco was 2-3 for the game while Rhys Hoskins and Andrew Knapp were each 1-4 with a combined 3 RBI’s. Zack Eflin (7-2) would get the win in this matchup in pitching 7 innings while allowing 2 runs on 5 hits, 1 homer, and 6 strikeouts with an ERA of 2.97. The losing pitcher was Alex Cobb (2-10) as he went 6.2 innings while allowing 3 runs on 4 hits and 5 strikeouts with an ERA of 6.53.
The Pittsburgh Pirates were 8-3 road losers against the surging Los Angeles Dodgers on 7-3-2018. The Dodgers would cash in on the money line as heavy favorites (-230) while the over was the play in that the total was set at 7.5 runs for the game. Clayton Kershaw (2-4) would pick up the win as he pitched 6 innings while allowing 2 runs on 4 hits and 2 strikeouts with an ERA of 2.86 while the losing pitcher was Ivan Nova (4-6) who pitched 5 innings while allowing 7 runs on 9 hits, 5 homers, along with 3 strikeouts with an ERA of 4.48. The Pirates had 5 hits for the game by only two players, Elias Diaz (2-4) and David Freese (3-3 with 3 RBI’s). Max Muncy was 3-4 for the Dodgers in the win with 2 RBI’s.
Philadelphia Phillies's Latest Performance :
The Phillies enter this matchup winners of 4 of their last 5 games to where the O/U was 1-4. Recently, they would lose a 3-game home set to the Yankees, however, would rebound in their next home series against the Nationals and would win the 4-game set on 7-1-2018 with a 4-3 win in the finale. This momentum would translate into their next series as they were 3-2 home winners over the Orioles in game 1 of a 2-game series.
For the season, the Phillies are averaging 4.35 runs per game (17th) with a team batting average of .235 (26th), 95 homers (18th), along with 36 stolen bases on the year (19th). Their pitching staff possesses an ERA of 3.96 (15th) with 762 strikeouts (7th), along with 41 quality starts (6th).
Odubel Herrera (.280 BA on 318 AB), Rhys Hoskins (.253 BA on 261 AB), and Cesar Hernandez (.266 BA on 316 AB) have been the stalwarts for this Phillies offensive attack. Maikel Franco (.262 BA on 237 Ab) and Scott Kingery (.223 BA on 269 AB) are also critical to the Philadelphia offense.
Aaron Nola (10-2) has pitched 109 innings this year while allowing 30 runs on 79 hits, 6 homers, 31 walks, and 107 strikeouts with an ERA of 2.48 while Nick Pivetta (5-7) has pitched 87 innings while allowing 45 runs on 87 hits, 13 homers, 27 walks, and 104 strikeouts with an ERA of 4.66 for the season.
Pittsburgh Pirates's Latest Performance :
The Pittsburgh Pirates have lost 3 of their last 5 games to where the O/U was 4-1. Recently, the Pirates would win 3-game road sets against the Mets along with the Padres, yet, would lose the first 2 games of an all-important 3-game road set to the Dodgers by being outscored 25-4 in games 1 and 2 of the set.
For the season, the Pittsburgh Pirates average 4.39 runs per game (14th) with a team batting average of .248 (12th), 84 homers (25th) along with 32 stolen bases (23rd). Their pitching staff has an ERA of 4.36 (20th) with 711 strikeouts (17th) along with 38 quality starts on the year (12th).
Corey Dickerson (.301 BA on 286 AB), Francisco Cervelli (.257 BA on 175 AB), Starling Marte (.262 BA on 275 AB), and Colin Moran (.266 BA on 279 AB) have been the most consistent hitters in the lineup for the Pirates this year. Jordy Mercer (.250 BA on 264 AB) and Josh Bell (.252 BA on 290 AB) have also been solid for Pittsburgh this year at the plate.
Trevor Williams (6-6, 91.2 IP, 48 R, 80 H, 11 HR, 30 BB, 68 SO, 4.22 ERA) and Ivan Nova (4-6, 92.1 IP, 51 R, 99 H, 17 HR, 17 BB, 71 SO, 4.48 ERA) have shined on the mound for the Pirates, at times, this year.
How Philadelphia Phillies & Pittsburgh Pirates Matchup.
Vegas Odds, Offshore Odds, & Odds ATS:
For the season, the Pirates are 39-46 ATS while the O/U is 42-37-6. On the other hand, the Phillies are 48-35 ATS while the O/U is 37-42-4.
In-Depth Analysis of each team:
In game 1, Nick Pavetta (5-7) will look to build from his last outing to where he pitched 1 inning in relief while giving up no runs or hits in a 4-3 home win versus the Nats on 7-1-2018. In his last outing versus the Pirates, Pavetta pitched 6.1 innings while allowing 2 runs on 5 hits, 1 homer, and 7 strikeouts in a 3-2 home win on 4-22-2018. Pavetta has been charged with 21 runs in his last 6 games while giving up 8 homers during this time. The over has been the play in 4 of this last 5 outings while the Phillies are 2-6 in his last 8 starts. This will be his first start against the Pirates, however, in his last 3 games, Pavetta is 1-1 with a 10.57 ERA with 10 strikeouts.
Jake Arietta (5-6) will get the start for the Phillies in game 2 hoping to end a string of no decisions and losses and get back on track. In his last outing, Arrieta pitched 5 innings while allowing 3 runs on 4 hits and 2 strikeouts in a 4-3 home win versus the Nationals on 7-1-2018 while in his last outing versus the Pirates, he was marvelous in going 7 innings while allowing no runs on only 1 hit with 10 strikeouts in a 7-0 home win on 4-19-2018. Arrieta has been tagged for 21 earned runs in his last 6 starts while the under has been the play in his last 3 appearances. The team is 2-4 in the right-hander’s last 6 starts.
Josh Bell (.500 BA on 14 AB), Corey Dickerson (.667 BA on 6 AB), David Freese (.200 BA on 25 AB), Starling Marte (.265 BA on 34 AB), Jordy Mercer (.200 BA on 20 AB), Max Moroff (.500 BA on 2 AB), and Gregory Polanco (.235 BA on 34 AB) have the most experience against the righty in the past. Elias Diaz (0-1), Josh Harrison (.130 BA on 23 AB) have not fared as well against Arrieta in their careers.
The pitchers for game 3 have not been assigned.
Against The Spread Selection: Game 1: Philadelphia Phillies, Game 2: Pittsburgh Pirates
My reason for the pick :
The Phillies are certainly on a high at this point in the season. They have not only won 5 of their last 6 games, but, they are suffering an average of only 2.3 runs in their last 3 outings. In all, take the Phillies to improve upon the momentum of their current play in which to set the tone in this series on their way to a competitive and low-scoring bout with the Pirates in the opener on Friday.
Arrieta has been dominated by this Pirates lineup in the past. It is for this reason that I will lean towards Pittsburgh in the game 2 matchup on Saturday. While I have the feeling the Phillies will indeed get some runs across the plate as well, I will say that Arrieta will allow the Pirates to get some hits and some costly runs as well. In all, take the Pirates to continue their dominance over Arrieta to tie the series on Saturday in game 2.
Totals Selection: Game 3: Under
My reason for the prediction :
I see the under being the play on Sunday in that both these teams have been privy to the under in recent matchups. On one hand, the Phills have cashed in on the under in 6 of their last 7 games and while the over has been 3-0 in the Pirates’ last 3 games, the under is 6-3 in their last 9 home games. With that being said, I expect not too many runs to be scored in this game due to great pitching on both sides.
Betting trends for Philadelphia Phillies:
- Betting Trends for Philadelphia Phillies
- The Phillies are 4-1 in last 5 road games
- The Phillies are 8-4 in last 12 games
Betting trends for Pittsburgh Pirates:
- Betting Trends for Pittsburgh Pirates
- The Pirates are 1-10 in last 11 home games
- The Over is 6-5 in Pirates last 11 home games
- The Pirates are 4-8 in last 12 games