Cincinnati Reds (41-51) vs St. Louis Cardinals (47-43)Date : 07/13/2018
Time : 8:15 pm EST
Location : Busch Stadium, St. Louis, Missouri
Pick, Prediction, & Preview:
Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals
Game 1 of a 3-game set versus the Cincinnati Reds and the St. Louis Cardinals will take place on Friday night at 8:15 pm EST at Busch Field in St. Louis, Missouri. The Reds continue to occupy 5th place within the NL Central division while the Cardinals are in 3rd place with the division. In their last outing, the Reds were 7-5 road winners over the Chicago Cubs on 7-9-2018 as they would cash in on the money line as underdogs (+160) while the over was the play with 9.5 runs being set as the total. Scott Shebler was 4-5 for the night with 3 RBI’s while Tucker Barnhart was 2-4 with 2 RBI’s in the win. Anthony DeSclafani (4-1) picked up the win for the Reds as he lasted 7 innings while allowing 1 run on 1 hits, 1 homer, and 5 strikeouts with an ERA of 4.43 while the losing pitcher for Cleveland was Mike Clevinger (7-4) who went 6 innings yet allowing 5 runs on 7 hits, 1 homer, and 11 strikeouts with an ERA of 3.34. Jason Kipnis was 2-4 for the night for the Indians with 2 RBI’s to his credit in the loss. The win broke a two-game losing streak for the Reds. In game 2 of this series, the Reds would also get a come from behind win by scoring 7 runs in the 9th inning to get the 7-4 road win over the Indians on 7-10-2018.
The Cardinals would tie a 4-game road set against the San Francisco Giants with a 13-8 loss in the finale on 7-8-2018. The Giants would cash in on the money line as slight favorites (-120) while the over was the play in that the total was set at 7.5 runs for the game. Ryan Flaherty had a disastrous day at the mound as he lasted on 2.1 innings while allowing 3 runs on 4 hits and 2 strikeouts with an ERA of 3.34. He was, however, fortunate to get the no decision. Madison Bumgarner (2-3) picked up the win after pitching 5.1 innings yet allowing 4 runs (4 ER) on 7 hits, with a homer, and 6 strikeouts with an ERA of 3.09 in the victory. Yairo Munoz was 2-2 with 3 RBI’s for the Cards while Matt Carpenter was 1-1 with 3 RBI’s as well in the loss. Pablo Sandoval was 3-5 for the home team with 5 RBI’s in the win. St. Louis has lost 2 of its last 3 games. In game 2, the Cards would get the 14-2 road win on 7-10-2018 to go up 1 game in a 2-game road set versus the Chicago White Sox.
Cincinnati Reds's Latest Performance :
The Reds have won 3 of their last 5 games to where the O/U was 4-1. Recently, they would win a 3-game home set versus the Chicago White Sox on by winning the finale by a 7-4 score on 7-4-2018. Cincy would go on to be defeated by the Cubs in a 3-game road set by a 6-5 finale loss on 7-8-2018. The Reds would go on to defeat the Cleveland Indians in both games 1 & 2 of a 3-game road set with game 2 being by a 7-4 score.
For the season, the Cincinnati Reds are averaging 4.74 runs per game (8th) with a team batting average of .258 (6th), 97 home runs (19th), along with 49 stolen bases (13th). Their pitching staff has an ERA of 4.64 (24th) with 711 strikeouts (25th), and 26 quality starts (29th).
Jesse Winker (.283 BA on 251 AB), Scooter Gennett (.322 BA on 335 AB), Tucker Barnhart (.254 BA on 276 AB), and Joey Votto (.291 BA on 337 AB) have been valuable to the offense this year. Jose Peraza (.275 BA on 349 AB) has also been a pivotal piece on offense for the Reds.
Tyler Mahle (7-6) has pitched 98.1 innings and has allowed 44 runs on 96 hits, 16 homers, 41 walks, and 97 strikeouts along with an ERA of 3.66. Finally, Luis Castillo (5-8) has pitched 98.1 innings while allowing 64 runs on 103 hits, 18 home runs, 35 walks, and 94 strikeouts with an ERA of 5.58.
St. Louis Cardinals's Latest Performance :
The St. Louis Cardinals come into this matchup winners of 3 of their last 5 games to where the O/U was 3-2. The Cardinals won a 3-game road set versus the Arizona Diamondbacks on 7-4-2018 while also tying a 4-game road set versus the San Francisco Giants on 7-9-2018. The Cardinals would go on to win game 1 of a 2 game road set against the White Sox by a 14-2 score on 7-10-2018.
For the season, St. Louis averages 4.49 runs per game (11th) with a team batting average of .247 (14th), 115 homers (10th) along with 33 stolen bases (24th). Their pitching staff has an ERA of 3.74 (9th) with 745 strikeouts (21st) along with 41 quality starts on the season (11th).
Tommy Pham (.246 BA on 301 AB), Jose Martinez (.302 BA on 3-8 AB), and Yadier Molina (.274 BA on 215 AB) have been the most consistent batters at the plate for St. Louis this season. Marcell Ozuna (.274 BA on 336 AB) has also been solid at the plate for the Cardinals this year.
Miles Mikolas (10-3) has pitched 115.1 innings and allowing 37 runs on 99 hits, 8 homers, 18 walks, and 81 strikeouts with an ERA of 2.65.
How Cincinnati Reds & St. Louis Cardinals Matchup.
Vegas Odds, Offshore Odds, & Odds ATS:
For the season, the Cardinals are 41-49 ATS while the O/U is 38-47-5. On the other hand, the Reds are 55-37 ATS while the O/U is 47-40-5.
In-Depth Analysis of each team:
Though it is unknown who will come to the hill for the Cards in game 1, Matt Harvey will be the opening starter for the Reds. Fresh off a game in which he received the no decision in an 8-7 road win versus the Chicago Cubs on 7-7-2018, Harvey lasted 5.2 innings in the matchup while allowing 3 runs on 9 hits. In his last 4 outings, Harvey has pitched well in allowing only 5 earned runs while the over has been the play in 4 of his last 7 starts (2-0 in last 2). Overall, the Reds are 3-1 in Harvey’s last 4 starts. In his last outing versus the Cardinals, the right-hander pitched 6 innings while allowing 5 runs on 6 hits, 3 homers and 6 strikeouts in a 7-6 home loss on 6-8-2018. Harvey has not given up a homer since.
Marcell Ozuna (.391 BA on 23 AB) has had the most experience and success against the righty in past for the Cards. Yadier Molina (4-5), Jedd Gyorko (1-5), and Kolten Wong (1-4) have also had a bit of success against Harvey in their careers. Matt Carpenter (.143 BA on 7 AB) and Dexter Fowler (0-7) have struggled mightily against Harvey in their respective careers.
The game 2 starter for the Cardinals is also unknown, however, Luis Castillo (5-8) will trot out to the mound for the Reds hoping to end a string of no decision in his last few outings that have kept him out of the winning column for weeks. In his last no decision, Castillo pitched 4 innings while allowing 3 runs on 6 hits in a 6-5 road loss to the Cubs on 7-8-2018 while in his last meeting with the Cards, the right-hander was very shaky in going 6 innings yet allowing 5 runs (5 ER) on 4 hits, 2 homers, and 10 strikeouts in a 6-4 home loss on 6-9-2018. Castillo is credited with 11 runs in his last 4 outings on 22 hits while the team is 3-1 in his last 4 starts. The over has been the play in 3 of his last 4 starts as well.
Aside from Paul DeJong who is 1-3, Castillo has dominated the Cardinals lineup in the past with Jedd Gyorko (0-3), Hose Martinez (0-3), Yadier Molina (0-2), Marcell Ozuna (0-3), and Tommy Pham (0-2) all going hitless in the past against the righty. Kolten Wong is also 0-1 against Castillo in his career.
Finally, the pitcher for St. Louis in game 3 has not been announced, however, Anthony DeSclafani (4-1) will start once again for the Reds this time looking for his 2nd straight win in as many starts. He is coming off a win in which he pitched 7 innings while allowing 1 run on 5 hits and 1 homer in a 7-5 win versus the Cleveland Indians on 7-9-2018. In his last outing versus the Cardinals, DeSclafani pitched 5 innings while allowing 3 runs on 10 hits and 6 strikeouts in a 6-3 home victory on 6-10-2018. In all, the right-hander is 4-2 in his last 6 starts while the over has been the play in 4 of his last 5 appearances on the mound. He has only been credited with 14 earned runs in his last 5 starts on 22 hits, though, the righty has given up 9 home runs during this time.
Matt Carpenter (.429 BA on 14 AB), Greg Garcia (.444 BA on 9 AB), Dexter Fowler (.167 BA on 12 AB), and Yadier Molina (.143 BA on 14 AB) have the most experience facing DeSclafani; On the other hand, Jedd Gyorko and Kolten Wong are a combined 0-14 against the righty in their careers.
Against The Spread Selection: Game 1: St. Louis Cardinals
My reason for the pick :
Despite the Cardinals troubles throughout the year, they have really been successful against the Reds this season as they are winners of 9 of their last 10 games while winning 3-straight contests at Busch Field. Matt Harvey has indeed pitched well in his past few outings, however, the Cards lineup have had a bit of experience and success against him in the past. While each team will be focused on getting the win, as always, I expect St. Louis to come out in the opener to set the tone for this series. That means getting a hard-fought victory over the resurgent Reds in game 1.
Totals Selection: Games 2 & 3: Over
My reason for the prediction :
The over has been the play in 15 of the last 20 games for both teams combined. With the Reds offense averaging over 6 runs per game in their last 4 games while the Cardinals putting up 46 runs in their last 6 games, I feel as if the two hot offenses will indeed combine to score some runs in games 2 and 3. Castillo as well as Desclafani has pitched well lately, however, have been known to have control issues at times. Again, with a hot offense such as the Cardinals, this could most certainly lead to runs being scored. In all, take the over for much of this series as both teams will be lighting the scoreboard up for this weekend series.
Betting trends for Cincinnati Reds:
- Betting Trends for Cincinnati Reds
- The Reds are 5-3 in last 8 road games
- The Reds are 8-5 in last 13 games
- The Over is 4-2-1 in Reds last 7 road games
Betting trends for St. Louis Cardinals:
- Betting Trends for St. Louis Cardinals
- The Cardinals are 2-8 in last 10 home games
- The Cardinals are 4-7 in last 11 games
- The Under is 7-5 in Cardinals last 12 home games