Arizona Diamondbacks (63-51) vs Cincinnati Reds (49-64)Date : 08/10/2018
Time : 7:10 pm EST
Location : Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati, Ohio
Pick, Prediction, & Preview:
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Cincinnati Reds
Game 1 of a 3-game set versus the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Cincinnati Reds will take place at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, Ohio, on Friday night at 7:10 pm EST. The Diamondbacks continue to occupy 1st place within the NL West division while the Reds continue to bring up the rear within the NL Central. In their last outing, the Reds would tie a 3-game road set against the Mets on 8-7-2018 by picking up the 6-1 win in game 2 where the Reds would cash in on the money line as underdogs (+130) while the under was the play with total runs being set at 8.5 runs for the game. The Reds would obtain 10 hits for the game with Philip Ervin going 1-2 with 3 RBI’s while Scooter Gennett was 3-4 with an RBI in the win. Jose Peraza and Brandon Dixon were each 1-5 in the victory. Sal Romano (7-9) would pick up the much-needed win as he pitched 6 innings while allowing 1 run on 2 hits and 5 strikeouts with a 4.94 ERA while Jason Vargas (2-8) suffered the loss for New York as he lasted .1 inning while allowing 3 runs on 3 hits with an 8.75 ERA. Brandon Nimmo was 2-4 for the night for a Mets team that could only garner 4 hits, altogether. The win for Cincy was huge in that it halted a 3-game losing streak.
In their last outing, Arizona became tied in their current 3-game home set versus the Philadelphia Phillies by losing 5-2 in game 2 on 8-7-2018. The Phillies would cash in on the money line as underdogs (+153) while the under was the play with total runs being set at 7.5 runs for the game. Nick Pavetta (7-9) would pick up the win for the Phillies as he would pitch 6 solid innings while allowing no runs on 5 this and 6 strikeouts for a 4.61 ERA on the night while Zack Greinke (12-7) suffered the loss as he would last 7 innings while allowing 1 run on only 3 hits with a homer and 4 strikeouts for an ERA of 2.89 in defeat. David Peralta and Paul Goldsmidt would each go 2-4 on the evening with Goldsmidt having an RBI. AJ Pollack was 1-3 also with an RBI in the loss for the D’backs. Nick Williams and Asdrubel Cabrera each had 2 hits for the road team with a combined 3 RBI’s while Jorge Alfaro was 1-4 with an RBI in the victory. The Diamondbacks have lost 2 of their last 3 games, yet, are winners of 7 of their last 11 outings, overall.
Arizona Diamondbacks's Latest Performance :
The Arizona Diamondbacks have won 3 of their last 5 game to where the O/U was 2-3. After tying a 2-game home set versus the Texas Rangers on 7-31-2018, the D’backs would also tie a 4-game home set versus the San Francisco Giants on 8-5-2018. Finally, they would come up with a 3-2 slim victory in game 1 of their following home series against the Phillies, only to drop game 2 by a 5-2 score.
For the season, the D’backs average 4.48 runs per game (16th) with a team batting average of .237 (26th), 124 homers (18th) along with 61 stolen bases (11th). Their pitching staff has an ERA of 3.63 (4th) with 1019 strikeouts (6th) along with 54 quality starts for the season (7th).
David Peralta (.300 BA on 407 AB) and Paul Goldschmidt (.276 BA on 427 AB) have been the offensive stars for the Diamondbacks thus far. Nick Ahmed (.241 BA on 375 AB) has also been solid offensively for Arizona this season.
Patrick Corbin (8-4, 141.1 IP, 52 R, 113 H, 11 HR, 37 BB, 174 SO, 3.31 ERA) and Zack Greinke (12-7, 149.2 IP, 49 R, 127 H, 20 HR, 29 BB, 152 SO, 2.89 ERA) have pitched the most innings for the D’backs this season while Zack Godley (12-6, 130.1 IP, 70 R, 127 H, 12 HR, 60 BB, 137 SO, 4.35 ERA) has also been solid on the mound thus far.
Cincinnati Reds 's Latest Performance :
The Reds have lost 3 of their last 5 games to where the O/U was 1-4. Recently, they would be swept in a 2-game road set versus the Detroit Tigers on 8-1-2018 while also losing a 5-game road set versus the surging Washington nationals on 8-5-2018. The Reds would go on to lose game 1 of a 3-game road set versus the Mets on 8-6-2018 by a 6-4 score, however, would tie the series in the following contest by getting the 6-1 victory.
For the season, the Cincinnati Reds are averaging 4.61 runs per game (11th) with a team batting average of .257 (5th), 199 home runs (22nd), along with 56 stolen bases (15th). Their pitching staff has an ERA of 4.69 (24th) with 859 strikeouts (26th), and 32 quality starts (29th).
Jesse Winker (.299 BA on 281 AB), Scooter Gennett (.314 BA on 414 AB), Tucker Barnhart (.243 BA on 329 AB), and Joey Votto (.289 BA on 391 AB) have been valuable to the offense this year. Jose Peraza (.282 BA on 444 AB) has also been a pivotal piece on offense for the Reds.
Luis Castillo (6-9) has pitched 121 innings while allowing 69 runs on 122 hits, 20 home runs, 39 walks, and 113 strikeouts with an ERA of 4.41 and Sal Romano (7-9, 4.94 ERA, 122 IP, 70 R, 125 H, 21 HR, 45 BB, and 87 SO) have been the most consistent on the mound for the Reds in 2018.
How Arizona Diamondbacks & Cincinnati Reds Matchup.
Vegas Odds, Offshore Odds, & Odds ATS:
For the season, the Diamondbacks are 61-54 ATS while the O/U is 54-56-5. On the other hand, the Reds are 65-49 ATS while the O/U is 49-50-5.
In-Depth Analysis of each team:
While no pitchers for either team have been assigned, these teams have been trending in opposite directions lately. The Reds, after going into the All-Star break winning 18 of 28 outings, they have since slowed down considerably in winning only 6 of their last 17 matchups. The offense has put up an average of 3.9 runs per game in their last 10 while the Reds pitching staff has surrendered an average of 3.7 runs during this time. They are, however, 5-2 in their last 7 games at Great American Ball Park to where they are averaging a tad over 4 runs per game; Nonetheless, the D’backs are 7-3 in their last 10 road games averaging 4.5 runs during this time while their pitching staff has only allowed 27 runs during this time. With the D’backs attempting to hold off the surging Dodgers in the NL West along with the Reds simply trying to string together some wins to show some type of competitive spirit, I expect this set to be exciting and possibly one where some heavy runs will be scored.
Against The Spread Selection: Game 1 & 2: Arizona Diamondbacks
My reason for the pick :
The D’backs have won 6 of the last 9 games in this series while they were also successful in winning a 3-game set in their last visit to Great American Ball Park on 7-18-2017. It is for this reason, along with there being so much on the line for Arizona in this matchup, that I will back the D’backs to get it done early in the series in which to set the tone. As stated, the Reds have been dismal at home recently and essentially throughout the year while Arizona is well above average on the road this season at 32-23 and will certainly be looking to capitalize on many of the inconsistencies possessed by this Reds team this season. In all, I expect Arizona to put on a show not only at the plate, but, at the mound as well as they have proven that they are capable of shutting down opponents away from Chase Field in recent matchups, as teams such as the Atlanta Braves and Chicago Cubs coming to mind.
Totals Selection: Game 3: Under
My reason for the prediction :
A stingy pitching staff in the D’backs along with an average staff for the Reds combined with an inconsistent offense for the Reds (at this point) spells to me that the under may indeed be the play in the finale of this set. It would be important to note, once again, that the D’backs have not been blowing out their opponents, but, the team has been relying on solid pitching along with obtaining timely hits at the plate that can present scoring opportunities. With that being said, I will be backing the under not only for game 3, which happens to be my strongest pick for this matchup.
Betting trends for Arizona Diamondbacks:
- The Diamondbacks are 7-3 in last 10 games
- The Diamondbacks are 11-5 in last 16 road games
- The Over is 8-5 in Diamondbacks last 13 road games
Betting trends for Cincinnati Reds :
- The Reds are 6-12 in last 18 games
- The Reds are 9-6 in last 15 home games
- The Over is 6-4 in Reds last 10 home games