Minnesota Twins (52-59) vs Detroit Tigers (47-66)Date : 08/10/2018
Time : 7:10 pm EST
Location : Comerica Park, Detroit, Michigan
Pick, Prediction, & Preview:
Minnesota Twins vs Detroit Tigers
Game 1 of a 3-game set versus the Minnesota Twins and the Detroit Tigers will take place at Comerica Park in Detroit, Michigan, on Friday night at 7:10 pm EST. the Twins are currently in 2nd place in the NL Central behind the 1st place Cubs while the Tigers are in 3rd place within the division. In their last outing, the Tigers would go down 0-2 in a 3-game road set versus the Los Angeles Angels on 8-7-2018 by suffering an 11-5 loss to where the Angels would cash in on the money line (-205) while the over was the play with total runs being set at 8.5 runs for the game. Victor Martinez and Nick Castellanos both had 2 hits in the game while Jeimer Candelario was 2-4 with 3 RBI’s in the loss. Jacob Turner (0-1) would pick up the loss as he would pitch only 1 inning while allowing 7 runs on 6 hits and a homer with a 45.00 ERA (Yes, 45.00!). On the other hand, Andrew Heaney (7-7) would pick up the win to get back to .500 on the season as he would last 5 innings while allowing 5 runs on 8 hits, 1 homer and 6 strikeouts for an ERA of 3.96 in the victory. Francisco Arcia and Andrelton Simmons each had 2 hits apiece with a combined 3 RBI’s while Kole Calhoun and Justin Upton also had 2 hits with a combined 3 RBI’s for the Angels. Shohei Ohtani was 2-4 with 3 RBI’s also. The loss was the 5th straight defeat for the Tigers after they had won 7 of 12 recently.
In their last outing, the Twins would hold off the Cleveland Indians to tie their current 4-game road set on 8-7-2018 by picking up the 3-2 win. The Twins would cash in on the money line (+220) while the under was the play with total runs being set at 8.5 for the game. Mitch Garver was the star for the Twins going 1-3 with 3 RBI’s in the win while Logan Forsythe and Jorge Polanco each had 2 hits apiece. Eddie Rosario went 4-5 for the night in the victory, which was the 4th in 5 outings for Minnesota. Adalberto Mejia (2-0) remained undefeated on the season as he pitched 5 innings while allowing no runs on only 1 hit and 3 punch outs for a 2.01 ERA while Carlos Carrasco (13-6) suffered the loss for the Tribe as he lasted 6.1 innings while allowing 3 runs on 10 hits, 1 homer, and 8 strikeouts with an ERA of 3.69 for the game. Francisco Lindor was 2-5 with an RBI in the loss for the Indians while Leony’s Martin, newly acquired from Detroit, had an RBI as well.
Minnesota Twins's Latest Performance :
The Minnesota Twins come into this game winners of 4 of their last 5 games to where the O/U was 4-1. Recently, the Twins would drop a 3-game home set to the Cleveland Indians on 8-1-2018, however, would go on the sweep the Kansas City Royals at home in a 3-game set on 8-5-2018. After losing game 1 of a 4-game road set to the Indians by a 10-0 score, the Twins would battle back in game 2 to take the 3-2 win on 8-7-2018.
For the season, the Twins are averaging 4.45 runs per game (17th) with a team batting average of .245 (18th), 110 homers (24th) along with 38 stolen bases (26th). Their pitching staff has an ERA of 4.46 (22nd) with 993 strikeouts (11th) along with 46 quality starts on the year (19th).
Eduardo Escobar (.274 BA on 368 AB), Joe Mauer (.272 BA on 313 AB), Max Kepler (.236 BA on 377 AB), and Brian Dozier (.224 BA on 410 AB) have been consistent within the Twins offense this season; However, Eddie Rosario (.299 BA on 452 AB) has been instrumental in their offensive attack as well.
Pitcher Kyle Gibson (5-9, 140 IP, 60 R, 118 H, 15 HR, 56 BB, 135 SO, 3.60 ERA) and Jose Berrios (11-8, 146 IP, 57 R, 118 H, 17 HR, 36 BB, 148 SO, 3.51 ERA) have led the Twins pitching staff thus far. Jake Odorizzi (4-7, 115.1 IP, 64 R, 116 H, 18 HR, 47 BB, 120 SO, 4.60 ERA) has also been solid for Minnesota this year.
Detroit Tigers's Latest Performance :
The Detroit Tigers have lost their last 5 games to where the O/U was 1-4. After sweeping a 2-game home set versus the Cincinnati Reds on 8-1-2018, the Tigers would go on to not only be swept by the surging Oakland Athletics in a 3-game home set on 8-5-2018, but, they would also go on to play horribly in their next series, a 3-game road set versus the Los Angeles Angels, as they would go down 0-2 after an 11-5 loss on 8-7-2018. The Angels have outscored the Tigers 17-7 in games 1 & 2.
Currently, the Tigers are averaging 3.79 runs per game (28th) with a team batting average of .239 (25th), 90 homers (30th), along with 53 stolen bases (17th). Their pitching staff possesses an ERA of 4.39 (19th) with 843 strikeouts (28th), along with 44 quality starts on the year (20th).
Nicholas Castellanos (.286 BA on 440 AB), and Jeimer Candelario (.228 BA on 364 AB) spearhead the Tiger offensive attack. Victor Martinez (.239 BA on 347 AB) have also been solid as well this season.
Mike Fiers (7-6) has pitched 119 while allowing 49 runs on 121 hits, 20 homers, 26 walks, and 87 strikeouts this year. Matthew Boyd (6-10) has pitched 122.2 innings this year while allowing 60 runs on 103 hits, 14 homers, 40 walks, and 111 strikeouts with an ERA of 4.33.
How Minnesota Twins & Detroit Tigers Matchup.
Vegas Odds, Offshore Odds, & Odds ATS:
For the season, the Twins are 62-50 ATS while the O/U is 54-55-3. On the other hand, the Tigers are 56-58 ATS while the O/U is 45-65-4.
In-Depth Analysis of each team:
With both teams struggling at this point in the season, I must say that while I feel as if the Twins will indeed win the series, outright, I will also state that, aside from game 1, I seem to find much more value in backing the total over the duration of the set, altogether. In other words, while the Twins have certainly played better than the Tigers in recent outings, it would be important to note that the Tigers got the best of the Twins in their earlier meeting this year on 6-12-2018 when the Tigers took a 3-game set. Most importantly, the Twins, due to them averaging 4.6 runs per game in their last 5 games along with their pitching staff surrendering only 23 runs during this time, have trended towards the under lately (7-5) and, in my view, will indeed have the momentum going into this set in winning 4 of 5 games; However, the under has also been the play in 6 of the last 9 games for Detroit due to their abysmal showings at the plate in recent games (2.8 run average in last 8 games). Furthermore, aside from their last matchup to where they gave up 11 runs, Detroit’s pitching staff has held their opponents to an average of 3.3 runs during their 6 outings prior.
Against The Spread Selection: Game 1: Minnesota Twins
My reason for the pick :
The Twins are 4-2 in the opening game of their last 6 series and I expect this trend to continue against a Detroit team that has had a rough go of it lately in losing not only 16 of their last 23, but, the Tigers are only 2-9 in their last 11 road series openers. Expect the Twins to build from their recent momentum in setting the tone early in this set, thus coming away with a huge game 1 victory on Friday night.
Totals Selection: Game 2 & 3: Under
My reason for the prediction :
The under has not only been the play in 7 of the last 12 for the Twins, but, has been the result in 6 of the last 9 games for the Tigers, thus signaling that the over will certainly be something one should very well keep their eyes on leading up to this matchup. Again, both offenses have struggled, however, the Twins seem to be waking up out of their funk. Nonetheless, when two struggling teams do battle, it can be difficult to determine an outcome. It is for this reason that I will allow the total to be the play (under) as I believe that both teams will continue to struggle at the plate which will, in essence, cause the under to once again be the result as it has been in 5 of the last 6 meetings between these two squads.
Betting trends for Minnesota Twins:
- The Twins are 18-11 in last 29 games
- The Twins are 4-13 in last 17 road games
- The Under is 8-5 in Twins last 13 road games
Betting trends for Detroit Tigers:
- The Tigers are 6-9 in last 15 games
- The Tigers are 6-10 in last 16 home games
- The Under is 8-5-1 in Tigers last 14 home games