Philadelphia Phillies (68-57) vs Toronto Blue Jays (57-69)Date : 08/24/2018
Time : 7:07 pm EST
Location : Rodgers Centre, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
Pick, Prediction, & Preview:
Philadelphia Phillies vs Toronto Blue Jays
Game 1 of a 3-game interleague set versus the Philadelphia Phillies and the Toronto Blue Jays will take place at Rodgers Centre in Toronto, Ontario, Canada, on Friday night at 7:07 pm EST. The Phillies are currently in the 2nd place slot within the NL East division while the Blue Jays are in 4th place within the AL East division. In their last outing, the Blue Jays would pick up an 8-2 win at home against the lowly Orioles as they would go up 2-0 in the 3-game series. They would cash in on the money line (-133) while the over was the play with total runs being set at 8.5 for the game. Sam Gaviglio (3-6) would pick up the win in the contest as he would pitch 7 innings while allowing 2 runs on 7 hits along with a homer and 7 k’s with an ERA of 4.94 for the game while Dylan Bundy (3-12) would suffer the loss in pitching 4 innings while allowing 7 runs on 10 hits and 3 homers with a 5.31 ERA. With 12 hits for the game, Toronto’s Kendrys Morales would maintain his hot streak by going 3-4 with 2 RBI’s while Billy McKinney would go 2-3 with 3 RBI’s on the night. For the Orioles, Caleb Joseph and Cedric Mullins would both go 1-4 with an RBI. The win was the 2nd straight for the Blue Jays.
The Phillies would drop game 1 of an all-important division series versus the Nationals on 8-21-2018 by a 10-4 score, marking their 3rd straight win versus a division team. The Nats would cash in on the money line (-141) while the over was the play with total runs being set at 9 runs for the game. Tanner Roark would pick up the ND as he would go only 3 innings while allowing 1 hit for an ERA of 4.05 for the game while Vince Velasquez would pick up the ND for the Phillies as he would pitch 4 innings while allowing a run on 4 hits along with 3 k’s for a 4.06 ERA. Carlos Santana would go 2-4 with an RBI for Philly while Mikael Franco and Asdrubal Cabrera would each have a hit along with an ERA in the loss. Trey Turner and Bryce Harper would each go 2-5 on the night with Harper having an RBI while Ryan Zimmerman and Matt Weiters would have 2 hits apiece with a combined 4 RBI’s. Tanner Roark would also go 1-1 with an RBI in the win for the Nats. The loss was the 3rd straight for the Phillies.
Philadelphia Phillies 's Latest Performance :
The Phillies enter this matchup losers of 3 of their last 5 games to where the O/U was 3-2. Recently, after tying a 2-game home set versus the Boston Red Sox on 8-15-2018, the Phillies would lose a 5-game home set versus the NY Mets on 8-19-2018. Their inconsistency would reveal itself in their next series as they would drop the opener of a 3-game road set versus the Washington Nationals on 8-21-2018.
Odubel Herrera (.266 BA on 459 AB), Rhys Hoskins (.257 BA on 421 AB), and Cesar Hernandez (.257 BA on 470 AB) have been the stalwarts for this Phillies offensive attack. Maikel Franco (.281 BA on 388 Ab) and Scott Kingery (.225 BA on 377 AB) are also critical to the Philadelphia offense.
Aaron Nola (14-3) has pitched 154 innings this year while allowing 39 runs on 111 hits, 8 homers, 43 walks, and 149 strikeouts with an ERA of 3.34 while Nick Pivetta (7-10) has pitched 119.2 innings while allowing 64 runs on 120 hits, 17 homers, 33 walks, and 117 strikeouts with an ERA of 4.66 for the season.
Toronto Blue Jays's Latest Performance :
The Blue Jays are loser of 3 of their last 5 games to where the O/U was 1-4. They would tie a 4-game road set versus the Kansas City Royals on 8-16-2018 while getting swept in their following series on the road at Yankee Stadium on 8-19-2018. The would, however, recover in their next series as they would take a 2-0 lead at home over the Baltimore Orioles after an 8-2 win on 8-21-2018.
Kevin Pillar (.257 BA on 408 AB), Justin Smoak (.255 BA on 419 AB), and Yangervis Solarte (.233 BA on 433 AB) have been the offensive spearheads for the Toronto Blue Jays this season. Pitcher Sam Gaviglio (3-6, 87.2 IP, 53 R, 99 H, 15 HR, 28 BB, 83 SO, 4.94 ERA) along with Marcus Stroman (4-8, 5.27 ERA, 100.2 IP, 64 R, 109 H, 9 HR, 36 BB, 86 SO) have been the most consistent pitchers on the staff for the Jays this year.
How Philadelphia Phillies & Toronto Blue Jays Matchup.
Vegas Odds, Offshore Odds, & Odds ATS:
For the season, the Blue Jays are 54-72 ATS while the O/U is 66-54-6. On the other hand, the Phillies are 63-62 ATS while the O/U is 54-65-6.
In-Depth Analysis of each team:
Jake Arrieta (9-8) will take the mound for the Phillies in game 1 looking to halt a 2-game skid on the mound. In his last outing, he would pitch 6 innings while allowing 1 run on 4 hits and 6 k’s in a 3-1 tough luck home loss to the Mets on 8-18-2018 while in his last outing versus the Blue Jays (exactly a year later), he would last 6.1 innings while allowing 1 run on 6 hits and 6 k’s in a 7-4 home win on 8-18-2017. Arrieta is charged with 7 earned runs on 21 hits over his last 26 innings while his team is 1-3 in his last 4 starts (0-3 in last 3). The under, however, has been the play in 3 of his last 4 appearances on the mound. His ERA remains at 2.84 in his last 3 starts.
Justin Smoak (2-3), Kevin Pillar (4-6), Kendrys Morales (1-1), Randal Grichuk (.364 BA on 22 AB), Curtis Granderson (4-12), and Aledmys Diaz (4-12) have all dominated against Arrieta in their respective careers for the Jays.
Ryan Borucki (2-3) will oppose Arrieta on the mound for Toronto looking to make amends for his last outing to where he would pitch .2 inning while allowing 6 runs on 4 hits and a homer in a 10-2 road loss versus the Yankees on 8-19-2018. This will be the left-hander’s first start versus the Phillies while his ERA in his last 3 games stands at 13.03 while his team is 4-1 in his last 5 starts. The over has been the play in his last 5 games while he is charged with 14 earned runs on 19 hits over his last 9.2 innings.
While no pitcher has been assigned for Toronto for game 2, Nick Pavetta (7-10) will come to the mound also look to atone for his last outing to where he would pitch 3.2 innings while allowing 6 runs on 8 hits and 5 k’s in an 8-2 home loss to the Mets on 8-19-2018. In his last outing versus the Blue Jays, he would last 5 innings while allowing 2 runs on 4 hits along with 7 k’s in a 5-3 home loss on 5-27-2018. He is charged wit 9 earned runs on 20 hits over 21.2 innings while the team is 2-3 in his last 5 starts. The under has been the play in 3 of his last 4 appearances on the mound. His ERA is 4.02 with 17 strikeouts in his last 3 games.
Devon Travis (2-2) has had the most success against Pavetta for the Jays while Justin Smoak, Kevin Pillar, Russell Martin, and Aledmys Diaz are a combined 0-7 against the right-hander lifetime. Curtis Granderson is .143 on 7 at bats against Pavetta in his career.
Against The Spread Selection: Pick: Game 1: Philadelphia Phillies, Game 2: Toronto Blue Jays
My reason for the pick :
The Phillies certainly need to pick up some wins to maintain their position in the division while also keeping pace with the Braves for the top spot. However, Arrieta will be coming to the mound in the opener and he has been dominated by the Toronto lineup in his career in that many of the big bats for the Jays have astronomical numbers against the righty. Borucki is an unknown to the batters for the Phillies and since he will be looking for a much better outing than was transpired in his last appearance, I expect him to have a decent outing. In all, I will take the Jays to pick up a solid win over Arrieta and the struggling Phillies in game 1.
For game 2, Pavetta will come to the mound seeking to put out a much more productive night on the mound that he would illustrate in his last outing. Also, he has dominated the Jays lineup in his career and will be looking to gain some confidence in toying with a lineup where no batters are hitting more than .150 against him. In all, I will pick the Phillies to get the tie in this series while taking the confidence achieved from their finale win to move forward.
Betting trends for Philadelphia Phillies :
- The Phillies are 5-7 in last 12 games
- The Phillies are 2-5 in last 7 road games
- The Under is 2-5 in Phillies last 7 road games
Betting trends for Toronto Blue Jays:
- The Blue Jays are 5-7 in last 12 games
- The Blue Jays are 4-2 in last 6 home games
- The Under is 4-1 in Blue Jays last 5 home games