Over/Under 6 Wins () vs Mississippi Rebels ()Date : 09/01/2018
Time : Ole Miss vs. Texas Tech 12:00 PM
Location : Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
Pick, Prediction, & Preview:
Over/Under 6 Wins vs Mississippi Rebels
Ole Miss may still be feeling the after-effects of Hugh Freeze and all the troubles he brought to the university but they made it apparent they are trying to move on as they will take the field under former interim coach Matt Luke. Luke was technically the head guy in 2017 as he coached the whole season after Freeze resigned and he did a pretty good job blocking out the distractions by leading the Rebels to a 6-6 record. Mississippi was unable to attend a bowl game due to the infractions which should extend into this season as well. Luke lost some good players to the transfer market with one of those guys being a future first round pick in Shea Patterson who threw for 2259 yards in the 7 games he appeared in last year. Ole Miss was unable to pull in the same recruits that they are used to as they were the 10th ranked SEC team, but to Luke’s defense how do you get top-notch recruits to come in considering they won’t be postseason eligible this year. Luke showed he is highly capable of coaching in the SEC and even if the QB and RB positions are questionable this season we should still see a competitive team.
Over/Under 6 Wins's Latest Performance :
Mississippi is still ineligible for postseason play but that hasn’t altered the over/under as the number was set at 6 wins which would match 2017 where Ole Miss went 6-6.
As we stated Ole Miss won’t be playing for any championship trophy this season but they still have an opportunity in earning some big-time wins this season which should give this team confidence moving forward. Ole Miss has an opportunity to showcase their talent in the first game of the season as they will travel to Houston for a neutral-site game against Texas Tech. They were also given a favor in terms of home SEC games as they have a chance to upset both Auburn and Alabama on their own turf. Ole Miss will also get the luxury of staying at home for the Egg Bowl against in-state rival, the Mississippi State Bulldogs. Outside of their SEC games, they will get to see Kent State, Southern Illinois, and Louisiana Monroe which should all be blowouts. The one concern on the schedule is the fact that they have to travel to LSU in what will be a battle test. Ole Miss has not been very good against LSU over the past few years as they have dropped 6 of the last 8 matchups.
Mississippi Rebels's Latest Performance :
Ole Miss in years past has been known for there stingy defense and solid receivers which made them a scary team in SEC play, and if they have any hope of returning to relevance it starts with these positions. The receivers should be the bread and butter of this team this year considering they bring back there top 3 pass catchers. A.J. Brown is one of the top pass catchers in all of college football and he could have been an early selection if he left for the 2018 draft after a 1252 yard season in 2017. The top 3 receivers which includes Brown, DaMarkus Lodge, and D.K. Metcalf should give a nice cushion to whoever is the QB this season as the trio accounted for 25 TDs last season. The guy who looks set to start in 2018 saw some time in 2017 as Jordan Ta’amu threw for 11 TDs compared to his 4 interceptions. Luke also has a very talented freshman in Matt Corral coming in but he may choose to stick with a veteran rather than burning a year of eligibility for a year that doesn’t matter. Luke stated multiple times after spring ball that his defense needed to ramp up their physicality after they gave up 270.5 rushing yards/game last season which is problematic against run-heavy teams like Alabama and LSU. Safety Zedrick Woods will be the leader of this defense from the free safety spot as he is entering his 3rd straight year as the starter. Wood was really solid from the center of the field last season as he was 3rd on the team in tackles with 64.
Player To Watch
D’Vaughn Pennamon, RB, JR.
As we stated Ole Miss has the receivers to score a lot of points this season as they boost depth in that room but the one spot that has Luke scratching his head with is the running back spot. Jordan Wilkins has been the go-to guy for Mississippi over the last few years but he left a big hole to fill after his 1000 yard senior season. Pennamon was the backup last season but he saw minimal time in that role as he only compiled 217 yards on 53 carries. Pennamon is a physical back as he weighs 238 pounds and he should be able to change the pace of game after airing it out to A.J. Brown every down. Pennamon should see a lot of time in the red zone which has me making a prediction of 10+ TDs for the junior in what will be a breakout season for the Texas native.
How Over/Under 6 Wins & Mississippi Rebels Matchup.
Vegas Odds, Offshore Odds, & Odds ATS:
Over 6 -110
Under 6 -110
In-Depth Analysis of each team:
9/1- Texas Tech- W
9/8- Southern Illinois- W
9/15- Alabama- L
9/22- Kent State- W
9/29- @ LSU- L
10/6- Louisiana Monroe- W
10/13- @ Arkansas- W
10/20- Auburn- L
11/3- South Carolina- L
11/10- @ Texas A&M- L
11/17- @ Vanderbilt- W
11/24- Mississippi State- W
Overall Record- 7-5
Against The Spread Selection: Over 6 Wins -110
My reason for the pick :
Ole Miss may have scheduled some easy non-conference games as they are going against an FCS team and a team who won all of 2 games last season but that plays into the hands of bettors as they will pick up some easy wins. Ole Miss also has a very generous road SEC schedule as the two hardest games will be @ LSU and Texas A&M who both should experience some highs and lows this season. It would be monumental if Ole Miss can pull off an upset against either Alabama or Auburn but that still doesn’t concern us as they will still be over the 6 win mark even without a win in these games. Ta’amu and A.J. Brown should develop a connection and hook up for 15+ TDs this season which will be needed considering the state of the defense.