Over/Under 7 Wins () vs LSU Tigers ()Date : 09/02/2018
Time : Miami Hurricanes vs. LSU Tigers 7:30 PM
Location : Tiger Stadium
Pick, Prediction, & Preview:
Over/Under 7 Wins vs LSU Tigers
Ed Orgeron may be one of the only coaches in college football who can consistently win 8 or so games but still be on the hot seat year after year and here we go again in 2018 as the time window is closing. LSU has become comfortable over the last few years with being the third-place team in the SEC West which we have gone to learn isn’t enough to earn a New Years Six Bowl something that was ordinary for this team years ago. LSU has their work cut out for them this year considering they lost many guys to the NFL this past season on both sides of the ball. The backfield may be the biggest concern for Orgeron considering he likes to run a pro-style offense but he lacks a running back who scored in 2017. LSU should have a QB battle come fall but they will have some good targets to throw to with their latest transfers and signees on campus. Orgeron was able to stay inside the top 15 in terms of recruiting classes but perhaps his biggest catch was keeping 5-star WR Terrance Marshall in-state. LSU will have to surprise some teams in their home stadium if they want any shot of competing for an SEC championship spot, something that hasn’t been done since 2011.
Over/Under 7 Wins's Latest Performance :
LSU finished the 2017 regular season with a 9-3 record and an appearance in the Citrus Bowl against Norte Dame in which they lost, 21-17. The loss of vital pieces on both sides of the ball has prompted oddsmakers to set the over/under at 7 wins which although would make them bowl eligible, it wouldn’t land them in a big-time game.
The LSU Tigers may not know who is playing where yet but that might need to be figured out soon considering some of the opponents they are slated to see throughout the regular season. LSU is set to play in a neutral-site game against Miami which will test the level of competitiveness in this inexperienced team. They also have to play in 3 of the toughest stadiums in all of college football as they will have to travel to Auburn, Florida, and Texas A&M in vital games. If there was a positive for LSU it is the fact that they get to bring in arguably the top 2 teams in the nation in Alabama and Georiga. Death Valley has always proven to be a tough spot to play for outside teams and LSU will need to snag one of these games if they have any hopes of playing in a New Years Six game. Orgeron may be on the hot seat and he will get money worth this season as week after week he has a tough opponent.
LSU Tigers's Latest Performance :
LSU lost a lot of main pieces this past offseason whether it was Danny Etling who threw for 2234 yards with only 2 interceptions, Derrius Guice who rushed for 11 TDs, or D.J. Chark who had 811 receiving yards. Myles Brennan was slated to be the quarterback for LSU this season but it looks like he may have lost his opportunity as Joe Burrow transferred in from Ohio State post-spring ball. Burrow saw minimal time at Ohio State with a crowded QB room but the former 4-star recruit should win over the job at LSU. Another transfer who is set to make some noise for LSU this season is WR Jonathan Giles who transferred in last season from Texas Tech. Giles was a solid receiver for Texas Tech as he had over 1000 yards receiving and 13 TDs in 2016 as a sophomore, and hopefully, Burrow and Giles hook up a couple of times considering the spot the RBs are in. Defensively the Tigers should be okay as they return their top tackler in Devin White who could be an All-American come end of the season. White finished up his sophomore campaign with over 133 tackles which averaged out to be about 10.2 per game. White as a junior should have an even bigger role and understanding of the defense which will be vital against run-first teams like rival Alabama.
Player To Watch
Terrance Alexander, CB, GS.
LSU lost some guys to the draft in their secondary but being the big bad SEC school they are Orgeron was able to bring in some grad transfers to spice up the position battles. Alexander comes in from Stanford which tells us he knows a thing or two about playing in big-time games something that may be vital come SEC play. Alexander was a 3-star recruit out of the state of Louisianna and he chose to go out west to Stanford for not only education but a chance to get on the field before some of these SEC schools. Alexander was never able to find consistent playing time which caused him to look elsewhere for a final crack at making the league or winning a ring. Alexander should be in the middle of every position battle come August maybe not due to his track record but the experience he has gained over some of the true freshmen. Alexander may have just needed a change of scenery and a trip back home to get back on the right track and I expect him to fill some holes in the secondary.
How Over/Under 7 Wins & LSU Tigers Matchup.
Vegas Odds, Offshore Odds, & Odds ATS:
Over 7 -110
Under 7 -110
In-Depth Analysis of each team:
9/2- Miami- L
9/8- Southeastern Louisiana- W
9/15- Auburn- L
9/22- Louisiana Tech- W
9/29- Ole Miss- W
10/6- @ Florida- W
10/13- Georgia- W
10/20- Mississippi State- W
11/3- Alabama- L
11/10- @ Arkansas- W
11/17- Rice- W
11/24- @ Texas A&M- L
Overall Record- 8-4
Against The Spread Selection: Over 7 Wins -110
My reason for the pick :
Orgeron wasn’t able to obtain the recruiting class he wanted this past year but he made up for it by bringing in some important grad transfers who could be even more important than your typical 5-star recruit. I have LSU going over the win total because I like the combination of Burrow and Giles as both guys were proven transfers. LSU has been known for breeding running backs whether it was Leonard Fournette or Derrius Guice which has me thinking another RB should pop up sometime soon. The defense will be stingy as always and they will be even better when they have the roaring sound of Tiger Stadium at their backs. I believe Orgeron will able to snag wins over both Florida and Georgia as it is far enough into the season to get a true gauge on what is working and what is not. They should bring all the confidence in the world back home if they can go into the swamp and beat the Gators. Burrow will impress a lot of people and he has a solid group of receivers around him to pick apart the average SEC teams defenses. LSU goes over the 7 win mark again.