Over/Under 7.5 Wins () vs Missouri Tigers ()Date : 09/01/2018
Time : Tennessee-Martin @ Missouri 4:00 PM
Location : Faurot Field
Pick, Prediction, & Preview:
Over/Under 7.5 Wins vs Missouri Tigers
The Missouri Tigers are set to return back to the field after capping off a solid season where they overcame a 1-5 record to win 6 straight and attend their first bowl game since 2014. Missouri may be far off from winning the SEC East as they are buried behind Georgia, South Carolina, and Florida but they return arguably the best QB in the nation. Barry Odom’s offense put up a ton of points last season but they will need to do it under a new offensive coordinator as Josh Heupel left for the UCF coaching vacancy. Missouri may not reside in the SEC West but that doesn’t excuse the awful recruiting they experienced this past offseason. Odom was the second to worst team in terms of recruits as they were one of the few SEC teams that failed to land a 4-star recruit. This may not go to hurt this experienced roster this season but it will hurt in years to come as they reside in the same division as Georgia who had the #1 class in the nation.
Over/Under 7.5 Wins's Latest Performance :
Oddsmakers are confident that Drew Lock and company won’t start off 1-5 like last year which has prompted them to set the over/under at 7.5 wins. If the over 7.5 wins hits it will be the most wins since their 11 win season back in 2014.
Tough Road Schedule
Missouri has not experienced relevancy in the SEC since their back-to-back SEC championship appearances in 2013 and 2014, and we may not see it anytime soon considering their upcoming schedule. Missouri may have the toughest conference schedule as they will have to travel to South Carolina and Alabama in back to back games and follow that up with visits to both Florida and Tennessee. Missouri will get to host some of the easier SEC opponents as Kentucky, Vanderbilt, and Arkansas will all travel to Columbia. If Missouri wants to make a statement it will have to steal one of those road games or even upset the defending SEC champions at home as Georgia will travel to Missouri on 9/22. The out of conference schedule is no gimmie either as they will have games against Wyoming, Memphis, and Purdue all bowl teams in 2017. Missouri has their work cut out for them this season and if they want to make some noise in the SEC East it will take a little bit of luck.
Missouri Tigers's Latest Performance :
The biggest news this past offseason wasn’t the fact that their offensive coordinator left for another job but rather the return of Drew Lock who pondered leaving for the NFL. Lock should thrive once again in the air-raid offense as he did in 2017 where he threw for 3964 yards and 44 TDs but he will have to do so without his top receiver. J’Mon Moore was on the receiving end for 1082 yards last season and with his departure, we should expect an increased role from Emanual Hall and Johnathon Johnson who combined for 1541 yards last season. Lock will also be missing his top RB Ish Witter who picked up 1000 yards on the ground last year but once again they return the next two running backs in Larry Roundtree and Damarea Crockett who combined for 1000+ yards in a decreased role. The defense for Missouri should once again experience some ups and downs this season like they did during 2017. The guy who should shoulder the load is DT Terry Beckner as he is coming off a 7 sack season in 2017. The Linebackers will also be in very good shape as they return all three starters who combined for 27.7 TFL last season, but the only problem will be keeping all of these guys on the field at the same time as they often deploy their nickel package.
Player To Watch
Jordan Elliot, DT, RS SO.
Missouri has been able to develop defensive linemen over the last 7 years as they have had as many as 8 guys drafted to the NFL, and we may just have another prospect for the NFL in Elliot. Elliot didn’t start his career with Missouri but rather with Texas after being a 4-star recruit out of high school. Elliot didn’t work out at Texas as he wasn’t given the opportunities he expected to receive which prompted his transfer to Missouri. Even though he is young it will still be a make it or break it year for the defensive tackle as he had to sit out all of 2017 due to NCAA rules. Elliot is a big boy as he comes in at 6’4 325 LBS so he should be an upgrade in Missouri’s rush defense. Elliot is my player to watch this season because I am interested in seeing how the former blue-chip recruit plays in his first season in Columbia, Missouri.
How Over/Under 7.5 Wins & Missouri Tigers Matchup.
Vegas Odds, Offshore Odds, & Odds ATS:
Over 7.5 -110
Under 7.5 -110
In-Depth Analysis of each team:
9/1- Tennessee-Martin- W
9/8- Wyoming- W
9/15- @ Purdue- W
9/22- Georgia- L
10/6- @ South Carolina- L
10/13- @ Alabama- L
10/20- Memphis- W
10/27- Kentucky- W
11/3- @ Florida- L
11/10- Vanderbilt- W
10/17- @ Tennessee- W
11/24- Arkansas- W
Overall Record- 8-4
Against The Spread Selection: Over 7.5 Wins -110
My reason for the pick :
Missouri has a really good team this season as they are led by a bunch of veterans but unfortunately, they will not be able to compete due to their tough SEC road games which they are not cut out for. Missouri will not experience a 1-5 start this season as they have some fairly winnable games to start 2018 but they will have to put together a streak if they want to be bowl eligible as well as land over the 7.5 win mark. Luckily for Missouri, their last 5 games are all winnable and I have them winning 4 of them (loss @ Florida) which could possibly put them in the 2nd spot of the SEC East. Lock deep down knows they aren’t competing for an SEC championship but he will still showcase his talent and prove to NFL scouts he is worthy of a first-round pick. I expect Missouri to give a couple of the top-tier SEC teams a scare whether it’s on the road against Bama or at home against Georgia but this team isn’t as talented as the 5-stars and not to mention they are extremely outcoached.