Over/Under 5.5 Wins () vs Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets ()Date : 09/01/2018
Time : Alcorn State Braves @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 12:30 PM
Location : Bobby Dodd Stadium
Pick, Prediction, & Preview:
Over/Under 5.5 Wins vs Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Paul Johnson has been a very good coach for Georgia Tech in his 10-year tenure as he has led the Yellow Jackets to 8 bowl games in those years, but last season Georgia Tech struggled as they fell a game short of bowl eligibility at 5-6. Paul Johnson brings an untraditional offense to the table as he runs the triple option which has proven to be successful at its highest points but awful at its lowest. Georgia Tech’s offense will have to carry the load this season as Johnson brought in a new defensive coordinator which results in a whole new scheme for the defense. Georgia Tech is returning most of their offensive weapons from 2017 and even if they weren’t Johnson landed some big names. Georgia Tech as a 2018 recruiting class only ranked 10th of 14th in the ACC but Johnson landed two 4-star athletes who can line up at either running back, slot, or defensive back. It may benefit them to pick up some time on the defensive side of the ball considering Georgia Tech is replacing 3 starters in the secondary. Georgia Tech should bounce back to their winning ways this season in Johnson’s 11th season and it helps they reside in the ACC Coastal division.
Over/Under 5.5 Wins's Latest Performance :
Georgia Tech was effected in the storms that the Southeast experienced last season which could have been a reason that the Yellow Jackets missed a bowl game as they ended the season at 5-6. Paul Johnson has been known as one of the best coaches in the ACC and given the fact that he returns most of his offensive firepower I expect him to get back to a bowl game. Oddsmakers have factored in the fact that there are new faces on the defensive side of the ball (coaches and players) which has the over/under set at 5.5 wins.
Georgia Tech may have the fallen into the best scenario possible after coming off a losing season which is given an easy schedule. Georgia Tech has a solid ACC road schedule as they will have to travel to Pitt, Louisville, Virginia Tech, and North Carolina which they can possibly win 3 of the 4 matchups. Georgia Tech will be forced to play a cross-conference game this season and although it is against Clemson they get to host them at home. The other tough game for Georgia Tech is their end of season road matchup against an in-state rival, the Georgia Bulldogs. The non-conference schedule outside of Georgia should expand their win total as they will get to host both Alcorn State and Bowling Green as well as travel to USF which could be a good matchup. Georgia Tech can have the opportunity to upset Miami at home which will give them a foot up when looking at the ACC Coastal standings.
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets's Latest Performance :
The Triple Option resulted in only 116 pass attempts from the quarterback position and although they live and die by the run Georgia Tech will need to develop a solid passing game if they want to keep opposing defenses honest. TaQuon Marshall is considered a small quarterback at 5’10 but there’s no need to see over your offensive line as he is essentially the 4th running back in the offense and he proved that last year as he led the team in rushing with 1146 yards and 17 TDs. Georgia Tech will also return their other 1000 yard back as KirVonte Benson returns to Atlanta for his redshirt junior season after rushing for 1053 yards last season. The one weapon that will be missing from the Yellow Jackets offense is 2017 leading receiver Ricky Jeune who had over 545 yards and 6 TDs in his senior season. Qua Searcy was Georgia Tech’s do it all guy as he sat 4th on the team in rushing yards with 217 and 2nd on the team in receiving with 130. Georgia Tech made some changes on the defensive side of the ball by hiring Nate Woody who previously served as the DC at Appalachian State. Victor Alexander at the outside linebacker spot should benefit in Woody’s new scheme and improve on his team-high 60 tackles. Georgia Tech will have to find some support at the defensive line spot especially since they lost the sack leader in Antonio Simmons (5.5 sacks). Anree Saint-Amour could possibly fill the void Simmons left as the senior will play a bigger and better role as a faster defensive end in the 3-4 front. The defensive secondary will need help the most out of anyone as they lost guys who were responsible for 5 of the 6 interceptions in 2017.
Player To Watch
Tre Swilling, DB, RS Fr.
As I mentioned the Yellow Jackets need to hit the drawing board and fill some of the voids that are left in the secondary and no one should be ready more for the opportunity than Tre Swilling. Swilling knew the secondary was crowded last season (hence his redshirt) but that takes nothing away from the former 4-star recruits talent level as he was once a highly sought after cornerback. Swilling was able to put size on during his redshirt season as he is weighing in at 190 which is good size for a defensive back, and given he had a season to work on his skill I’d imagine he is better off than when he came in. I am interested in seeing how Swilling plays in his first true season at Georgia Tech which makes him my player to watch.
How Over/Under 5.5 Wins & Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets Matchup.
Vegas Odds, Offshore Odds, & Odds ATS:
Over 5.5 -120
Under 5.5 -Even
In-Depth Analysis of each team:
9/1- Alcorn State- W
9/8- @ USF- L
9/15- @ Pitt- W
9/22- Clemsom- L
9/29- Bowling Green- W
10/5- @ Louisville- L
10/13- Duke- L
10/25- @ Virginia Tech- L
11/3- @ North Carolina- W
11/10- Miami- L
11/17- Virginia- W
11/24- @ Georgia- L
Overall Record- 5-7
Against The Spread Selection: Under 5.5 Wins - Even
My reason for the pick :
I did state Georgia Tech was in a good spot because they return offensive weapons as well as have a favorable schedule but the one thing that scares me is the turnover they face on the defensive side of the ball. Putting in a new defensive scheme as well as replacing a whole secondary in a pass-happy league results in a disaster with a ton of points being put up on them. I also need to see a little better effort out of Marshall in the passing game especially considering he only connected on 37.1 % of his passes. Running the triple option could kill you especially if you see a disciplined defense like Clemson and Miami who both reside on the schedule. I am looking to take Georgia Tech under the 5.5 win mark as they will miss their 3rd bowl game in as many as 4 seasons.