Over/Under 2.5 Wins () vs Oregon State Beavers ()Date : 09/01/2018
Time : First Game: Oregon State Beavers @ Ohio State Buckeyes 12:00 PM
Location : Reser Stadium
Pick, Prediction, & Preview:
Over/Under 2.5 Wins vs Oregon State Beavers
Oregon State has gone through some ups and downs this century but they will be looking to reboot their whole program after they hired former Oregon State QB Jonathan Smith who could be one of the best young coaches in the game. Oregon State has shown potential to win as they went to 9 bowl games from 2000-2009 but the last few years have been a complete 360 as they have gone 11-29 over 3 seasons. The Oregon State Beavers put nothing good on film last season as they ranked 114th in points per game and even worse on the defensive side of the ball as they allowed 43 PPG which was good for 128th in division 1 football. Oregon State should be much better on the offensive side of the ball especially since they return some experienced weapons but the success of the offense will translate the quarterback play as it was very inconsistent last season. Jonathan Smith wasn’t only one of the best Oregon State QBs in program history but he also spent the last few years under Chris Petersen who has been very successful at both Washington and Bosie State which should boast a better offensive attack. Smith should be able to improve the way the Beavers recruit not only because he is a young coach (39) but he once went through the process as a player and knows what recruits look for in a school. The Beavers will need to be much better on the recruiting trail in the coming years if they want a chance at competing in the Pac-12 North and this year wasn’t an improvement as they ranked 12th in the Pac-12 with 0 4-star recruits committed.
Over/Under 2.5 Wins's Latest Performance :
Oregon State is coming off one of their worse seasons in program history as they went 1-11 with their only win coming against FCS Portland State but given the reboot with a new coaching staff hopes are high. Oregon State returns some solid weapons on the offensive side of the ball as well as an experienced secondary but given the uncertainty of how they will play under Smith the over/under has been set at 2.5 wins.
Can Oregon State Turn It Around?
Oregon State is hoping they can turn things around and eventually compete for a top spot in the Pac-12 North but first things first, they have to win at least 8 games to be considered for a top spot. It would be far fetched to say the Beavers will be successful this season especially after their first game as they will travel to Ohio State to kick off the season which could potentially be a 50 point blowout. Two of the only Oregon State wins could come in week 2 and 3 as they will host FCS Southern Utah as well as travel to Nevada to face a team who is coming off a 3-9 season. The Beavers will have a tough close to the season as their final 4 Pac-12 games will be against some of the best teams in the conference. The Beavers will have the advantage of hosting USC as well as their in-state rival in Oregon but they will have to travel to Washington and Stanford. It’s safe to say that Oregon State will not be at the top of the Pac-12 North this season and if they want any chance of being a feel-good story they will need to win 2 or 3 games in their already tough conference slate.
Oregon State Beavers's Latest Performance :
Oregon State struggled on the offensive side of the ball and when it comes down to it we see that the problem was generated from the lack of solid QB play. Oregon State thought they had their answer at the QB position when they received JUCO All-American Jake Luton last year but when he went down with an injury the Beavers struggled. Luton showed signs of being a solid QB last season but his decision making will need to be much better this season after he matched his TD and Interception total at 4 a piece. Smith will change the scheme up as he will bring in a much more favorable uptempo offense which should benefit Luton and his weapons. Oregon State graduated their top running back in Ryan Nall but don’t expect too much of a dropoff as the Beavers have Junior RB Art Pierce. The Florida native was solid in a backup role last season as he rushed for over 323 yards and compiled another 128 yards through the air, expect him to potentially triple his rushing numbers. The wide receivers will be the strongest unit for the Beavers as they return 3 of their top 4 pass catchers from last season. TE Noah Togiai was the best pass catcher for Oregon State last season as the redshirt junior compiled a team-high 461 yards with an additional 2 TDs, and expect him to be joined by another solid piece as they have Timmy Hernandez who is coming off a 357-yard season. The defense will need to be much improved this season especially if they want any chance of making a bowl game for the first time since 2013. Oregon State will have to find a replacement for their star LB Manase Hungalu (97 tackles) who ran out of eligibility but he leaves the linebacker corp in good hands as they have depth. Jonathan Willis has taken on the responsibility of being a leader and the senior should shine after he compiled 68 tackles and a team-high 3 sacks last season. The backend of the defense struggled with injuries last season but they should be much better given 100% from both Xavier Crawford and Dwayne Williams. The secondary was effective in the run game last year as both Jalen Moore and David Morris pitched in 75 tackles a piece but they will need to be much better in creating turnovers as the DBs only accounted for 5 interceptions last year. The defensive line will be where Smith and the Beavers will be scratching their head as they return little to no production at both the DE and DT spots.
Player To Watch
Jake Luton, QB, Sr.
Any offensive success is reliant on the quarterback position and as we have seen the last few years Oregon State has lacked a prestige QB which has translated into 29 losses in 3 seasons. Jonathan Smith was a really solid QB for the Beavers back in the early 2000s and after developing Jake Browning (Washington) into the QB he is today the success will translate onto the 6’7 JUCO transfer. Luton has a big arm but he will need to improve his accuracy as well as his consistency and if he can get those mechanics on the right path there is no doubt he could succeed in the uptempo offense.
How Over/Under 2.5 Wins & Oregon State Beavers Matchup.
Vegas Odds, Offshore Odds, & Odds ATS:
Over 2.5 Wins -110
Under 2.5 Wins -110
In-Depth Analysis of each team:
9/1- @ Ohio State- L
9/8- Southern Utah- W
9/15- @ Nevada- W
9/22- Arizona- L
9/29- @ Arizona State- L
10/6- Washington State- L
10/20- California- L
10/27- @ Colorado- L
11/3- USC- L
11/10- @ Stanford- L
11/17- @ Washington- L
11/23- Oregon- L
Overall Record: 2-10
Against The Spread Selection: Under 2.5 Wins -110
My reason for the pick :
Jonathan Smith led the Oregon State Beavers to their most successful season in program history as they went 11-1 in 2000 but that was as a player and hopes are that the former QB can do the same thing but in the coaching aspect. The Oregon State Beavers will have no walk in the park to start the season as they will have to open up against one of the toughest teams in football and given their conference slate there is no shot the Beavers get anywhere close to the 3 win mark. It’s hard to believe that the Beavers defense will turn things around for the better as they are only one year removed from being one of the worst in college football. The offense should take a step forward with a new offensive approach but it won’t be nearly enough to have the Beavers over the 2.5 win mark. Take Oregon State to go under the total.