TCU Horned Frogs (1-0) vs SMU Mustangs (0-1)Date : 09/07/2018
Time : 8:00 pm EST
Location : Gerald J. Ford Stadium, University Park, Texas
Pick, Prediction, & Preview:
TCU Horned Frogs vs SMU Mustangs
The TCU Horned Frogs will travel to University Park, Texas, to Gerald J. Ford Stadium to take on the Southern Methodist Mustangs on 9-8-2018 beginning at 8 pm EST. The Horned Frogs were victorious in their opening week matchup against Southern by a score of 55-7 as they would not cover the spread (-49.5) while the over was the play with the total being set at 58.5 points. The Mustangs would have a much rougher go of it during their week 1 matchup as they would fall to the North Texas Mean Green on the road by a 46-23 score as they would not cover the spread as favorites (-3.5) while the under of 70.5 was not surpassed. The last time these two teams met was on 9-16-2017 when TCU would get the 56-36 win as they would not cash in on the spread as 22-point favorites yet the over would be the play with the total being set at 64.5 points for the game.
TCU Horned Frogs's Latest Performance :
The TCU Horned Frogs made it look easy whipping up on Southern at home last Saturday as the offense would obtain 264 yards in the air while also having 235 rushing yards and 30 first downs overall. Shawn Robertson would go 17 of 24 for 182 yards and 3 scores while Emari Demercado would rush 8 times for 57 yards while Darius Anderson and Kennedy Snell would combine for 15 rushes for 59 yards in the win. KaVontae Turpin would have 4 receptions for 47 yards while Jalen Reagor would have 4 grabs for 45 yards and a TD. The Horned Frogs D would allow Southern only 9 first downs along with 101 yards passing compared with 84 yards in total rushing. Alec Durmin and Niko Small each had 4 tackles to lead the defense while Ty Summers, Garret Wallow, and Corey Bethly would each have a sack to further spearhead the defensive attack.
SMU Mustangs's Latest Performance :
The SMU Mustangs could not seem to stop the offensive charge for the Mean Green last Saturday as their defense would allow 461 passing yards along with 68 yards rushing and 34 first down, total. Rodney Clemons was a bright spot for the defense as he would collect 7 tackles along with 4 assist in the loss while Delano Robinson (6 tackles) and Patrick Nelson (5 tackles/5 assists) would also step up for the unit in a losing effort. Nelson would also have 1.5 sacks. The offense would be stifled as well as they would only put up a total of 4 rushing yards on 19 attempts along with 234 passing yards and 10 first downs. Ben Hicks would go 12 of 24 for 252 yards, 2 TD’s and 1 INT while Braeden West would have 26 yards on 8 rushes and a TD; However, Ben Hicks would rush 6 times for a -28-yard output. Reggie Roberson would have 4 receptions for 67 yards while James Proche would have 2 catches for 77 yards and a TD.
How TCU Horned Frogs & SMU Mustangs Matchup.
Vegas Odds, Offshore Odds, & Odds ATS:
TCU is 0-1 ATS while the O/U is 1-0
SMU is 0-1 ATS while the O/U is 1-0
In-Depth Analysis of each team:
The Horned Frogs will look to keep rolling while hoping that their offensive play, sparked by their QB and his receivers, can continue to play well against this Mustangs squad that really gave up some yards versus North Texas in their opening matchup of the 2018 season. This will be an interesting game to watch as the Mustangs will look to take advantage of their home field advantage in somehow slowing down this offensive team in TCU while also attempting to exploit a squad that eliminated the running game from the equation for Southern very early in their week 1 contest. Look for this to be a game where overall toughness will decide the winner while a healthy amount of focus and motivation will also be of great benefit as well.
Against The Spread Selection: Pick: TCU Horned Frogs -21.5
My reason for the pick :
While the offense for the Mustangs will certainly be a bit of a step up for the Horned Frogs, from a defensive standpoint, the fact remains that the Mustangs gave up entirely too many yards to the Mean Green last weekend to even give itself a fighting chance of making a game out of the contest, altogether. They must believe that TCU will attempt to pound them on the ground in hopes of opening things up with the passing game that dominated the Southern defensive secondary last weekend. In all, TCU will prevail in this matchup as they will run away with things late in the matchup as the Mustang D will begin to wear down from a primarily punishing running game.
Totals Selection: Pick: Over (off)
My reason for the prediction :
I see this game being one to where TCU will light up the scoreboard. SMU may indeed get better as this season progresses, however, they are not at the point currently. With that being said, with the athletes that TCU has compared to their overall QB play at the moment, I will back the over in that the visitors will run away with this in the 2nd half, en route to yet another tune up victory.
Betting trends for TCU Horned Frogs:
- The Horned Frogs are 2-4 ATS in last 6 games
- The Horned Frogs are 4-2 ATS in last 6 road games
- The Under is 8-3 in Horned Frogs last 11 games
Betting trends for SMU Mustangs:
- The Mustangs are 0-5 ATS in last 5 games
- The Mustangs are 4-2 ATS in last 6 home games
- The Over is 4-1 in Mustangs last 5 games