New Mexico Lobos (1-1) vs New Mexico State Aggies (0-3)Date : 09/15/2018
Time : 8:00 pm EST
Location : Aggie Stadium, Las Cruses, New Mexico,
Pick, Prediction, & Preview:
New Mexico Lobos vs New Mexico State Aggies
The Rio Grande Rivalry will resume in 2018 with the New Mexico Lobos traveling to Aggie Stadium in Las Cruses, New Mexico, to battle the New Mexico State Aggies on Saturday night at 8 pm EST. The Lobos would suffer a 45-14 loss on the road at 6th ranked Wisconsin in week 2 to as they would cash in on the spread as 35.5 point underdogs while the over of 58 was surpassed. The Aggies would also suffer a 60-13 blowout loss on the road at Utah State in week 2 as they would lose out on the spread as 23-pont underdogs while the over was the play with the total being set at 62 points. New Mexico State has covered the spread the last 4 times these two teams met while the Aggies would also win the last 2 meetings as 7.5 underdogs in a 30-28 road win on September 9, 2017 while also winning on September 10, 2016 by a 32-31 score as 11 point home underdogs. The over has been the play in 3 of their last 4 meetings while the under of 68.5 was not surpassed last year.
New Mexico Lobos's Latest Performance :
The Lobos would hang around versus Wisconsin for a half as they would go down 10-7 at the break, however, they would be outscored in the second half 38-7 as the Badgers would pour it on thanks to a tough Wisconsin running game that would rack up a total of 417 total yards on the ground. The Lobos also may have some success facing this Aggie defense that allows 295.7 yards to their opponents. Tyrone Owens, who leads the rushing attack this year with 115 yards and 2 TD’s, will certainly look to have a much better outing on the ground against the Aggie defensive front. Also, Sheridan Jones will replace starting quarterback Tevaka Tuioti would have a concussion against USU and will not be available for this week’s matchup, would throw for a touchdown and two picks in this matchup, however, the Aggies defense will be stingy in this area in 2018 as they are ranked 46th in the nation in giving up 178.7 yards in the air per game to their opponents. This means that Jones may be able to utilize his two main targets in Jay Griffin IV and Delane-Hart Johnson if he is able to cut down on mistakes throughout the game.
New Mexico State Aggies's Latest Performance :
The Aggies would not threaten the Utah State Aggies in last week’s 60-13 road loss as they would go down 33-10 at the half while also being outscored 27-3 in the second half. They would, however, take a 7-6 lead late in the first quarter as Matt Romero would connect with Jonathan Boone for an 18-yard pass TD while Dylan Brown would tack on a field goal midway through the second period to make the score 16-10. Brown would tack on another field goal in the third period as this would end the scoring for the day for the Aggies. The offense for New Mexico State ranks above 100 in the nation in both offensive categories, yet, they may find some confidence in going up against a New Mexico defense that is allowing 330.5 rush yards per game. Christian Gibson along with Royce Caldwell will look to power the rushing attack in Saturday’s matchup while Romero, who would end week 2 with 161 yards, a touchdown, along with 3 picks, will look to further utilize Jonathan Boone in the passing game against a Lobo defense that is allowing 237 passing yards to their opponents. Also, with the Aggies averaging only 10 points per game for a 128th ranking nationally, it will be interesting to see how effective they will be against New Mexico’s defense that allows 37.5 points per game to their opponents thus far.
How New Mexico Lobos & New Mexico State Aggies Matchup.
Vegas Odds, Offshore Odds, & Odds ATS:
New Mexico State is 0-3 ATS while the O/U is 2-1
New Mexico is 1-1 ATS while the O/U is 2-0
In-Depth Analysis of each team:
This will certainly be a game to which both teams can get back on track by getting in the win column. The probability certainly falls in the Aggie’s corner as the Lobos will suit up their 2nd string QB in which to do battle with their rival on Saturday. With that being said, this game will remain interesting in that in rivalry games, each team has something to play for. It is for this reason that I will lean towards New Mexico State in this instance due to their strength of schedule thus far along with the Lobos being without their number 1 signal caller.
Against The Spread Selection: Pick: New Mexico State -5
My reason for the pick :
The line for this matchup has gone from eight to five in favor of New Mexico State. It is for this reason that I will back the Aggies to cover in this matchup primarily since they have faced much stiffer competition thus far. Also, with Tuioti not being available to the Lobos along with Jones not performing well at all in his relief in week 2, I see the Aggies really controlling this game on both sides of the ball while cashing in on the small spread. Of course, this will be a rivalry game, so, one could expect this contest to be competitive, however, New Mexico State should have just enough talent to get pass New Mexico at home on Saturday.
Totals Selection: Pick: Under 57.5
My reason for the prediction :
While the Aggies are averaging only 10 points per game this season, the Lobos are putting up an average of 38 points per game; However, this could be misleading. The Lobos would score 62 on Incarnate Word in week one before dropping their last outing to the Badgers. With that being said, with the starting QB for the Lobos a no-go this weekend, I see both offenses attempting to establish themselves at the line of scrimmage early as they have both struggled in the pass as well in the run game. With not many playmakers in which to choose from, they will tend to rely on an anemic run game that has not produced much in week 2. In all, the under will be the strong play against two anemic offense that will be looking to gain some type of consistency moving forward.
Betting trends for New Mexico Lobos:
- Lobos are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game
- Lobos are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game
- Lobos are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss.
Betting trends for New Mexico State Aggies:
- Aggies are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games on turf
- Aggies are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games
- Under is 9-1-1 in Aggies last 11 home games