Arkansas Razorback (1-2) vs Auburn Tigers (2-1)Date : 09/22/2018
Time : 7:30 pm EST
Location : Jordan Hare Stadium, Auburn, Alabama
Pick, Prediction, & Preview:
Arkansas Razorback vs Auburn Tigers
The Arkansas Razorbacks will travel to Jordan Hare Stadium in Auburn, Alabama, to battle the 11th ranked Auburn Tigers in an SEC battle beginning at 7:30 pm EST. In their last matchup, the Razorbacks would drop a home game to the North Texas Mean Green by a 44-17 score to where they would not cover the 5.5 spread as home favorites while the total of 64.5 points was not surpassed while the Auburn Tigers would lose at home to LSU by a 22-21 score. These two teams would meet last on October 21, 2017 as the Tigers would get the 52-20 road win to where they would cover the 17 points as road favorites while the total of 51 points was surpassed.
Arkansas Razorback's Latest Performance :
Arkansas would be destroyed by North Texas last Saturday as they would go down at the half by a 34-10 score as Cole Kelly would provide the only score on a five-yard run while Conner Limpert would nail a 54-yard field goal. The Mean Green would outscore the home team 10-7 in the second half en route to the victory as Kelly would throw for 185 yards along with four huge interceptions for Auburn while Michael Woods and La’Michael Pettway would combine for eight catches for 110 yards. Maleek Williams would pace the rushing attack with five rushes for 74 yards along with a TD. With Auburn ranking 15th in the country in rush defense, the 76th rushing attack for the Razorbacks will certainly have their work cut out for them on Saturday. On the other hand, Arkansas is averaging 234 yards in the passing game per outing and will be looking to exploit a pass defense for the Tigers that allows exactly 234 yards per outing. Finally, Arkansas averages 33 points per game while Auburn is giving up only 15.7 points per game to their opponents. The good news for the road team is that linebacker Richard McBryde and defensive back Javaris Davis will each be questionable for Saturday’s game for Auburn. Unfortunately, defensive back DeVion Warren along with offensive lineman Shane Clenin, Jalen Merrick, and Dylan Hayes are all questionable due to ankle, back, and neck injuries. Receiver Michael Woods will also be questionable with an ankle ailment.
Auburn Tigers's Latest Performance :
After going in at the half up by four points, the Tigers would be outscored 12-7 in a physical SEC matchup last weekend versus LSU as they would go on to lose the game by a 22-21 score as Cole Tracy would nail a 43-yard field goal to end the game. The game was very much even in the yardage department for both teams, however, LSU would have 249 yards in the air while Auburn would have only 198 while the home team would outgain the visitors on the ground 130-121. JaTarvius Whitlow would finish the game with 104 yards on 22 rushes and a TD while Jarrett Stidham would throw for 198 yards and a TD along with two interceptions in the loss. Anthony Schwartz and Seth Williams combined for four catches for 72 yards total for Auburn. While the Tiger passing attack, which averages 203 yards per game this year, has not been as effective as their punishing rushing attack which puts up 235 yards per contest, the Razorbacks have been strong in stopping the run in 2018 as they are ranked 14th in the country in allowing 83 yards per game. On the other hand, Stidham and company could possibly make some headway versus the road team in that they are 116th in the nation in allowing 300 yards in the air to their opponents. Also, defensive back Chevin Calloway, linebacker Dre Greenlaw, and defensive lineman Dorian Gerald are all questionable with injuries for the Arkansas defense for Saturday’s matchup.
How Arkansas Razorback & Auburn Tigers Matchup.
Vegas Odds, Offshore Odds, & Odds ATS:
Arkansas is 0-2 ATS while the O/U is 1-2
Auburn is 1-2 ATS while the O/u is 1-2
In-Depth Analysis of each team:
Auburn dominated the Razorbacks last season due to their running game racking up well over 300 yards per game. This year, they will look to utilize their rushing attack once again to obtain yet another victory over their SEC opponent. Look for this to be a competitive contest as the Razorbacks will be looking to atone for a bad loss versus the Mean Green at home in week three while Auburn will be focused and motivated to move forward after a heartbreaking loss LSU last weekend. In all, expect this to be a low scoring and hard-hitting affair that will be closer than he spread would indicate.
Against The Spread Selection: Pick: Arkansas Razorbacks +30
My reason for the pick :
I will back Arkansas in this matchup as they will look to recover after two consecutive losses after wining the opener in 2018. They possess some weapons on offense, however, due to their lackluster QB play, those weapons are not being utilized as effectively as they should. With that being said, it will not be easy to run on Auburn this weekend as they have been solid in stopping the run; However, Auburn will find it hard to exert their dominance over an Arkansas defense that is ranked in the top 15 in stopping the run thus far. In all, this has the makings of a close contest, so, I will back the road team as they will have much to prove to themselves after dropping two straight games. Also, it will be interesting to see how Auburn performs after a mentally exhausting loss to LSU last weekend.
Totals Selection: Pick: Under 58
My reason for the prediction :
With both teams being manhandled in the trenches in week three, look for both to perform much more solidly in this contest. It is for this reason that I expect both defenses to be physical at the point of contact in which to set the tone for the game early. And while the Tigers would hang 50 points on the Razorbacks last year in a victory, it will be much more difficult this year as Arkansas will keep this one tight and low scoring.
Betting trends for Arkansas Razorback:
- Razorbacks are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game
- Razorbacks are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game
- Over is 4-1 in Razorbacks last 5 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.
Betting trends for Auburn Tigers:
- Tigers are 6-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record
- Under is 6-1 in Tigers last 7 games on grass
- Under is 6-1 in Tigers last 7 games overall.