Florida Gators (2-1) vs Tennessee Volunteers (2-1)Date : 09/22/2018
Time : 7:00 pm EST
Location : Neyland Stadium, Knoxville, Tennessee
Pick, Prediction, & Preview:
Florida Gators vs Tennessee Volunteers
An SEC week four matchup versus the visiting Florida Gators and the Tennessee Volunteers will take place at Neyland Stadium in Knoxville, Tennessee, on Saturday night at 7 pm EST. The Gators would get a 48-10 home win over the Colorado State Rams as they would cover the 21.5 points as home favorites while the total of 60 points was not surpassed. On the other hand, the Volunteers would pick up a 24-0 win over the Texas El-Paso Miners last Saturday as they would not cover the 33.5 point spread as home favorites while the under was the play with the total being set at 51 points for the contest. These two teams would meet on September 16, 2017 as the Gators would get the 26-20 win at home, yet, the Volunteers would cover the 6.5 spread as road underdogs while the under was the play with the total being set at 51 points for the game.
Florida Gators's Latest Performance :
The Florida Gators would jump all over the Rams at home in week three as they would take a 27-3 lead at the half while outscoring the road team 21-7 in the final half as they would put up 341 yards of offense with Felipe Franks who would pass for 119 yards, two TD’s and an INT while Van Jefferson (2 rec, 62 yards, TD) would lead the receiving corps for the Gators. Dameon Pierce (5 rushes, 87 yards, TD) and Jordan Scarlett (6 rushes, 56 yards, TD) would pace the rushing attack for the Gators who would have 222 rush yards total for the game. Tennessee is ranked in the top 40 in the pass as well as in the rush and could pose problems for a Gators squad that is ranked 93rd in passing while averaging 184 yards on the ground, good for 63rd in the nation. Jacob Copeland is questionable for the Gators receiving corps with a knee injury and could possibly affect the passing game, however, linebacker Quart’e Sapp and Todd Kelly Jr are both questionable for Tennessee’s defense as well for Saturday’s matchup.
Tennessee Volunteers's Latest Performance :
The Vols would have 512 total yards on offense in week three as they would take care of business at home versus Texas El-Paso on last Saturday as they would get 158 rushing yards along with a TD from Ty Chandler while also having 74 yards from Madre London. Josh Palmer and Brandon Johnson would combine for six catches for 115 yards in the win for Tennessee while QB Jarrett Gurarantano would throw for 168 yards and a TD. Chandler and company will look to utilize their 36th ranked rushing attack on a Gator defense that is allowing 199 yards on the ground. The Gators are strongest in their pass defense as they are allowing teams to put up only 131 yards per game, good for 8th in the nation. The Vols passing game has been less than stellar this year, they intend to find some creases within Florida’s unit as the passing game is ranked 101st in the country. Also, with defensive backs David Reese, CJ McWilliams, and Shawn Davis all being questionable for this game, the home team may have a fighting chance to be a two-dimensional team versus a very stingy pass defense. In all, the Vols are averaging 32 points per game, so, it will be interesting to see how they perform versus a Gators team that is allowing only 14 points per game.
How Florida Gators & Tennessee Volunteers Matchup.
Vegas Odds, Offshore Odds, & Odds ATS:
Tennessee is 1-2 ATS while the O/U is 1-2
Florida is 2-1 ATS while the O/U is 1-2
In-Depth Analysis of each team:
Last year’s matchup was a low scoring affair with Florida edging the Vols in the end. In all, I expect a similar game this year as the home team will be looking for payback in front of their home crowd on Saturday. Both teams will look to take control within the trenches to allow their offense the ability to utilize its running game in which to set up the pass. Of course, neither team has been effective in their passing attack this year thus far, look for this game to be one where both teams will commit themselves to the run throughout as this will be a low-scoring and typical SEC matchup between two teams looking to begin the conference schedule on a high note.
Against The Spread Selection: Pick: Tennessee Volunteers +4.5
My reason for the pick :
I will back the Vols in this matchup in that they seem to have the better run game and while they could potentially be missing some pieces within their linebacking corps along with critical pieces within the defensive secondary, I continue to have faith that with this being an all-important conference matchup, the Vols will keep this game tight at home. Also, the Gators have a slightly better defense as well and will look to get pressure on Franks in which to cause some turnovers.
Totals Selection: Pick: Under 47
My reason for the prediction :
With both teams relying heavily on a tough and physical running game along with two prideful defenses that have no intention of giving ground within the line of scrimmage, expect this game to be one where the clock will consistency run. It is for this reason that I will back the under in this contest as both teams will be looking to limit each other’s opportunities on the offensive end as both defenses have really played solid thus far in 2018.
Betting trends for Florida Gators:
- Gators are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game
- Gators are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 conference games
- Gators are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games.
Betting trends for Tennessee Volunteers:
- Volunteers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game
- Over is 4-0 in Volunteers last 4 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game
- Under is 4-0 in Volunteers last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.