Georgia Bulldogs (3-0) vs Missouri Tigers (3-0)Date : 09/22/2018
Time : 12:00 pm EST
Location : Faurot Field at Memorial Stadium, Columbia, Missouri
Pick, Prediction, & Preview:
Georgia Bulldogs vs Missouri Tigers
The Georgia Bulldogs will travel to Faurot Field at Memorial Stadium in Columbia, Missouri, to battle the Missouri Tigers for an SEC showdown that will begin on Saturday at noon. The Bulldogs are fresh off a 49-7 home win over Middle Tennessee State as they would cover the 34.5 points as home favorites while the total of 60 points was not surpassed while the Tigers would get the 40-37 road win over the Purdue Boilermakers in week three as they would not cover the five points as road favorites while the total of 68 points was surpassed. These two teams would last meet on October 14, 2017 as the Bulldogs would get the 53-28 home win, yet, the Tigers would cover the 28.5 spread as road dogs while the over was the result with the total being set at 58.5 points. UGA is 1-4 ATs in the last five meetings while the road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Finally, the underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five contests.
Georgia Bulldogs's Latest Performance :
Georgia would rise to the occasion against Middle Tennessee State in their last outing in week three as they would go up 42-7 at the half while cruising to a 49-7 victory as they would pound the Blue Raiders on the ground for 261 yards on the ground as Elijah Holyfield would lead the way with 100 yards on eight carries on the day. And while the passing game was not as stellar with only a total of 223 yards, Jake Fromm would throw for 128 yards along with three touchdowns in the win. Jeremiah Holloman would have three catches for 90 yards and a score in the victory for UGA. With a passing game ranked 79th in the nation with 216 yards per game, Fromm and company will do best in attempting to exploit the Tiger defensive secondary that allows 305 yards per game. The battle will certainly be in the trenches as Mizzou gives up only 74 yards on the ground per game while UGA puts up 213 yards on the ground per week, good for 13th in the country. This game will certainly be a great matchup versus teams that are committed to the run game while also possessing talent on the outside that can be difference makers at any point during the game; Nonetheless, they both have solid defenses that are each looking to make a statement this Saturday in conference play.
Missouri Tigers's Latest Performance :
In an up and down game from start to finish, the Tigers would escape Lafayette, Indiana, with a win over a Purdue team that would put up 614 total yards of offense while having 572 yards passing on a Missouri defense that would have no answers for their QB that would throw three touchdowns in the loss. Nonetheless, Missouri would hold their own on the road as they would take a 27-24 lead at the half while each team would score only 13 points each in the second as the Tigers would get the slim victory. Drew Lock (375 yards 3 TD’s, INT) would come up big for the Tigers while Larry Roundtree III (23 rushes, 168 yards) along with Tyler Badie (12 rushes, 61 yards) would lead the rushing attack in the win. Finally, Jalen Knox (5 catches, 110 yards, TD) and Emanuel Hall (4 catches, 88 yards) would lead the receiving corps for a Mizzou offense that averages 43.7 points per game while being ranked seventh in the country in total offense per game with 589 yards. However, Georgia is ranked seventh in the nation as well in total offense allowed with 259 yards per game while giving up only eight points to their opponents per week. Missouri will also find a bit of difficulty in their pass a run game as UGA is ranked in the top 20 in both defensive categories in 2018, yet, defensive back Tray Bishop will be questionable for this game due to personal reasons. For Missouri, offensive lineman Yasir Durant is questionable with an ankle injury for Saturday’s game.
How Georgia Bulldogs & Missouri Tigers Matchup.
Vegas Odds, Offshore Odds, & Odds ATS:
Missouri is 2-1 ATS while the O/U is 2-0
UGA is 1-1 ATS while the O/U is 1-2
In-Depth Analysis of each team:
This matchup will be one of the most intriguing on Saturday in that you have a Bulldogs squad that has really played solid on defense while their offense has dominated the trenches to establish their running game in each contest. On the other hand, the Tigers’ passing game is very good as Lock and company have really proven themselves to be a dangerous team in which to encounter. In all, I expect both teams to come out doing what they do best. For Georgia, it will be to control the trenches to establish their ground attack which can open opportunities in the passing game. For Missouri, keep the defense honest by staying balanced early while leaning towards the pass as much as possible. Expect an up and down game in this contest as it should really be an amazing watch.
Against The Spread Selection: Pick: Georgia Bulldogs +14.5
My reason for the pick :
While Missouri may indeed come out with a win in this contest, on the strength of UGA’s ground game, I expect hey will try to slow this game down at some point in which to give themselves a better chance at winning. Of course, Fromm and company can score with the best of them, however, they simply cannot afford to trade score for score with Missouri on Saturday. With that being said, the home team will get a heavy dose of the rushing attack for the Dogs early and often, thus allowing them to keep the game (and the spread) within reach.
Totals Selection: Pick: Over 64.5
My reason for the prediction :
For two defenses such as UGA and Mizzou, one would normally think that 65 points would be too much as the total for this game, however, both teams have the ability to move the ball and with their playmakers on the outside along with their experience and talent at QB, I see the defenses taking time to get acclimated to what the other is doing before the game slows down. Until then, expect a healthy amount of scoring from both teams, thus allowing the over to be the big play in this matchup.
Betting trends for Georgia Bulldogs:
- Bulldogs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 conference games
- Bulldogs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game
- Bulldogs are 5-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Betting trends for Missouri Tigers:
- Over is 3-0-1 in Tigers last 4 games in September
- Over is 3-0-1 in Tigers last 4 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game
- Over is 5-0 in Tigers last 5 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.