North Carolina Tar Heels (1-2) vs Miami Hurricanes (3-1)Date : 09/27/2018
Time : 8:00 pm EST
Location : Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, Florida
Pick, Prediction, & Preview:
North Carolina Tar Heels vs Miami Hurricanes
A week five ACC showdown between the North Carolina Tar Heels and the 16th ranked Miami Hurricanes will take place at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, Florida, at 8 pm EST on Thursday night. The Tar Heels would pick up their first win of the season at home over the Pitt Panthers last Saturday by a 38-35 score while the Hurricanes dominated Florida International as they won by a 31-17 score in week four. The last time these two teams would meet, the Hurricanes would get the 24-19 road win over UNC as they would cover the spread as 21-point road dogs while the under was the play with the total being set at 56 points for the contest. The under is 5-1 in the last six meeting between these two teams while it has been the result in the last four games in Miami.
North Carolina Tar Heels's Latest Performance :
North Carolina trailed the Panthers by a 28-21 score at the half while scoring 17 points in the 3rd quarter to take control of the game thanks to a Jordan Brown one-yard TD run along with a Nathan Elliot touchdown pass to Dyami Brown to put the home team up 35-28. Freeman Jones also tacked on a field goal for the Tar Heels during this time. And while the Panthers would score late in the game with 3:12 remaining, the Tar Heels were able to run out the clock and pick up the huge ACC victory. UNC would have 482 yards total in the win, yet, would fumble twice (losing one) in the contest. Elliot ended the day with 313 yards along with two touchdown passes while Dazz Newsome (6 rec, 110 yds) along with Anthony Ratliff-Williams (4 rec, 84 yds) paced the receiving corps in the win. They racked up 173 yards on the ground with Antonio Williams leading the charge with 16 rushes for 114 yards along with two TD’s. And while the defense for UNC would allow the Panthers 174 yards in the air, they gave up 228 yards on the ground, typical for a run defense that allows 203 yards per game to their opponents.
Miami Hurricanes's Latest Performance :
The Hurricanes would take a 24-0 lead into halftime and despite being outscored 17-7 in the second half, Miami was able to cruise to victory thanks to Travis Homers day on the ground (13 rushes, 114 yards, TD) along with three touchdown passes by N’kosi Perry who had 224 yards total. Mike Harley and Brevin Jordan combined for 12 catches for 143 yards with Jordan having a TD catch. In all, the Miami offense would rack up 488 yards of total offense while holding the football for 36:49 minutes in the game. Miami has done well with Perry, as opposed to Rozier at the helm at QB, as the Hurricanes are averaging 44 points per game while being ranked 46th in the nation with 449 yards in total offense per game. Its defense, which held the Panthers of Florida International to 188 total yards in their loss, is ranked 2nd in the league in allowing 224 yards per outing to their opponents in 2018.
How North Carolina Tar Heels & Miami Hurricanes Matchup.
Vegas Odds, Offshore Odds, & Odds ATS:
Miami is 2-2 ATS while the O/U is 3-1
UNC is 1-1-1 ATS while the O/U is 2-1
In-Depth Analysis of each team:
While Miami picked up a huge ACC win last Saturday, things will certainly not get easier as they now travel to face a 16th ranked Miami team looking to maintain their outstanding offensive and defensive play as each are ranked in the top 40 in the nation. North Carolina has not had similar luck thus far in the season as they are ranked 87th in total defense in allowing 397 yards per game while the offense puts up 394 yards, good for 82nd in the country. Miami’s rushing game has been punishing opponents in 2018 in averaging 210 yards per game and will certainly look to pound a shaky UNC run defense ranked 105th in the nation. On the other hand, the Tar Heels average 166 yards per game while the Hurricanes only allow 79 yards per game. In all, look for this game to be a battle in the trenches throughout.
Against The Spread Selection: Pick: Miami Hurricanes -18.5
My reason for the pick :
I will back the Hurricanes in this matchup as they are not only the most consistent team of the two, but, they also possess a healthy balance of playmakers in the passing game as well as a running attack that has dominated opponents thus far. I expect the offensive line to take control early in allowing the rushing attack to set the tone for this matchup. From there, expect Perry to blow the game wide open with precision passing that will serve to dismantle a defensive secondary for the Tar Heels that allow 194 yards per game.
Totals Selection: Pick: Under 55.5
My reason for the prediction :
The under has been the play in Miami in recent meeting amongst these two teams. Also, when combined with the fact that I happen to believe that Miami will dominate UNC in the trenches that will serve to take away their running game early on, look for the home team to cruise in this contest while scoring just enough to cover the spread. In all, UNC will put up some scores early, yet, will eventually be shut down on offense due to the Hurricanes ability to keep them from converting on third downs.
Betting trends for North Carolina Tar Heels:
- Tar Heels are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 conference games
- Tar Heels are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record
- Under is 8-1 in Tar Heels last 9 Thursday games.
Betting trends for Miami Hurricanes:
- Under is 8-1 in Hurricanes last 9 conference games
- Hurricanes are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 conference games
- Hurricanes are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.