Central Michigan Chippewas (1-3) vs Michigan State Spartans (2-1)Date : 09/29/2018
Time : 12:00 pm EST
Location : Spartan Stadium, East Lansing, Michigan
Pick, Prediction, & Preview:
Central Michigan Chippewas vs Michigan State Spartans
The Central Michigan Chippewas will have a difficult matchup versus the 18th ranked Michigan State Spartans on Saturday as they will travel to Spartan Stadium in East Lansing, Michigan for a 12:00 pm EST showdown. In their last outing, the Chippewas would pick up the 17-5 home win last Saturday versus the Black Bears of Maine as they would cover the spread as 7.5 home favorites while the under was the play as the total was set at 55 points for the game. The Spartans would pick up a huge road victory over the Indiana Hoosiers as they would win by a 35-21 score as they covered the spread as 6.5-point road favorites while the over was the play with the total being set at 51.5 for the game. The Spartans would get the 30-10 blowout on September 26, 2017 versus Central Michigan as they would not cover the 25 points spread as home favorites while the under of 56 points was not surpassed in the contest. The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meeting amongst these two teams while the Chippewas are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings at Spartan Stadium.
Central Michigan Chippewas's Latest Performance :
Central Michigan, after a scoreless first quarter, would score ten points in the second quarter thanks to a Tommy Lazzaro touchdown run along with a Ryan Tice 41-yard field goal. Lazzaro would find JaCorey Sullivan for a five-yard touchdown pass to seal the victory early in the fourth quarter despite the Black Bears of Maine getting a safety late in the game. Marine would outgain the Chippewas 265-177 while the home team would have 95 rushing yards on the day led by Lazzaro with 44 yards while he would also throw for 82 yards, a TD, along with a pick in the win. Julian Hicks had 38 yards on two catches for central Michigan who would turn the ball over twice in the matchup while holding the ball for only 26:00 minutes in the game.
Michigan State Spartans's Latest Performance :
The Spartans would jump out to an early 21-7 halftime lead on the Indiana Hoosiers last Saturday thanks to two touchdowns by quarterback Brian Lewerke who connected with Jaylen Nailor and Matt Dodson along with a Shakur Brown 69-yard interception return. Michigan State would also get two rushing touchdowns from Nailor along with Matt Coughlin in the second half as the Spartans would cruise to victory. They would only put up 350 yards for the game, yet, racked up 131 yards on the ground and was led by Nailor with 79 total yards while the passing game was led by Felton Davis II along with Cody White who would combine for nine catches for 156 yards. Lewerke passed for 213 yards along with two touchdowns along with two picks in the win. The Spartans defense would only allow 29 yards rushing for the contest as they are ranked first in rush defense in the country. On the other hand, they allowed 272 yards in the air as they have struggled defending the pass this year as they are ranked 124th in the nation in this area.
How Central Michigan Chippewas & Michigan State Spartans Matchup.
Vegas Odds, Offshore Odds, & Odds ATS:
Michigan State is 1-2 ATS while the O/U is 2-1
Central Michigan is 3-1 ATS while the O/U is 1-3
In-Depth Analysis of each team:
The Chippewas would win their first game of the season versus the Black Bears last weekend. Now, they seek to continue their momentum versus a Michigan State team that garnered much confidence after their road victory over the Indiana Hoosiers last weekend as well. As stated, the Spartan defense allow next to nothing from opponents as it relates to their opponents rushing attack(s), yet, their pass defense can potentially be exploited. The problem is that the Chippewas passing attack is ranked 122nd in the country in averaging 139 yards for the season. Their rushing attack is just as dismal from a ranking standpoint as they are 112th in the nation with 120 yards per game. As an offense, CMU is only averaging 15 points per game while the Spartans are allowing 22.7 points. On the other hand, the Spartans are averaging 29 points per game while the Chippewas are allowing their opponents 24 points per contest.
Against The Spread Selection: Pick: Michigan State Spartan -28.5
My reason for the pick :
While the Spartans have not been very good at all versus the spread this year, I will back them in this contest simply because I feel as if they will look to establish themselves in the run game early in this matchup. Also, with the Chippewas being horrible in stopping the run, I expect their running game to open opportunities within their passing game which will allow them to cover the spread over a Chippewas team that will not be able to move the ball at all on Saturday due to the stout defensive front for MSU.
Totals Selection: Pick: Over 46
My reason for the prediction :
Of course, with their running game clicking on all cylinders, I expect the total to go above its set total for this contest. Again, Central Michigan is ranked 103rd in the nation in stopping the run this year. With that being said, the Spartans will continue to run until they stop it, which will never happen as the Spartans will dominate in the trenches on their way to the total of 46 being surpassed very soon in this matchup.
Betting trends for Central Michigan Chippewas:
- Chippewas are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game
- Over is 5-0 in Chippewas last 5 games following a straight up win
- Under is 6-1 in Chippewas last 7 games in September.
Betting trends for Michigan State Spartans:
- Over is 4-1 in Spartans last 5 games overall
- Under is 4-1 in Spartans last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road recor
- Over is 4-1 in Spartans last 5 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.