Ohio State Buckeyes (4-0) vs Penn State Nittany Lions (4-0)Date : 09/29/2018
Time : 7:30 pm EST
Location : Beaver Stadium, University Park, Pennsylvania,
Pick, Prediction, & Preview:
Ohio State Buckeyes vs Penn State Nittany Lions
In a thrilling game on October 28, 2017, the Ohio State Buckeyes would be victorious versus the Nittany Lions at home by a 39-38 score on a Marcus Baugh touchdown reception by then QB JT Barrett as the Buckeyes would rack up 529 total yards while having 201 rush yards in the win. The Buckeyes would not cover the spread as 7-point home favorites while the over was the play with the total being set at 57.5 points. Penn State will now look for payback as they will host the Buckeyes at Beaver Stadium in University Park, Pennsylvania, at 7:30 pm EST in what will be one of the headliners for the week five slate. In their last outing, the Buckeyes would pick up a 49-6 home win versus the Tulane Green Wave while the Nittany Lions would crush the Fighting Illini of Illinois by a 63-24 score last Saturday as they would cover the spread as 27-point road favorites while the over was the play with the total being set at 60 points for the game. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings amongst these two teams.
Ohio State Buckeyes's Latest Performance :
The Nittany Lions would hang 35 points in the fourth quarter in their last outing versus Illinois thanks to two touchdown passes from Trace McSorley along with two rushing touchdowns by Ricky Slade. Also, Journey Brown would also end the scoring for Penn State in the fourth on a six-yard touchdown run. Miles Sanders led the rushing attack that accumulated 387 yards for the game with 200 yards from scrimmage while McSorley and the passing game would only account for 204 yards total. Jonathan Holland along with Juwan Johnson combining for seven catches for 104 yards and a touchdown in the victory. Penn State’s rushing game is the tip of the spear as it relates to their offense in averaging 275 yards per game, however, OSU is allowing just 144 yards to their opponents for the season.
Penn State Nittany Lions's Latest Performance :
The Buckeyes went up 42-0 at the half on the Tulane Green Wave last Saturday and never looked back as they would get the blowout win in preparation for their Big Ten matchup versus the Nittany Lions. They would rack up 570 yards total along with 151 yards on the ground led by J.K. Dobbins with 55 yards on 11 carries along with a TD. D.J. Haskins threw for 304 yards while having five touchdown passes in the game while Parris Campbell led the receiving corps with 147 yards receiving along with two scores in the win. The sixth ranked passing attack for the Buckeyes will now look to face the 30th ranked pass defense in Penn State that allows 173 passing yards per game. And while the Nittany Lions are giving up 20 points per game, the Buckeyes are averaging 55 points per game, overall.
How Ohio State Buckeyes & Penn State Nittany Lions Matchup.
Vegas Odds, Offshore Odds, & Odds ATS:
Penn State is 3-1 ATS while the O/U is 4-0
Ohio State is 3-1 ATS while the O/U is 2-2
In-Depth Analysis of each team:
This game will certainly serve to end the argument as to who the best team in the Big Ten will be this season. Ohio State would squeak out a slim victory in their last outing while the Nittany Lions now get the Buckeyes in their own backyard and will certainly be focused on obtaining revenge for the devastating loss. Both teams are averaging over 50 points per game, however, the defenses for these squads are experienced and talented and will certainly make the other work for yardage/scores. Nick Bosa will not suit up for this game and will certainly impact the defense for the Buckeyes; Nonetheless, the Buckeye are stout in every defensive category this year, so, there will be someone that will surely step up in his absence.
Against The Spread Selection: Pick: Penn State +3.5
My reason for the pick :
I will back Penn State in this contest in that they are at home, possess the revenge factor resulting from a heartbreaking loss that they would endure in Columbus last year, and finally, they are talented and experienced at the skill positions on both sides, thus leading me to take the home team and the plus points. Bosa’s absence, as stated, will impact the Penn State’s offensive strategy for this game, however, McSorley and company will attempt to utilize their tenth ranked rushing attack to run the ball on an Ohio State unit that is ranked 61st in rush defense. In all, look for the home team to control the trenches as the game progresses on their way to covering the small spread as home dogs.
Totals Selection: Pick: Under 72
My reason for the prediction :
Again, with both teams averaging over 50 points per game, it would seem smart for both to work hard to establish their running game early on in which to prevent the opposing offense from taking the field. With this being the case, I will back the under for this contest in that while both teams will put some scores on the board, they will both settle in at some point while using their run games to eat clock as well as tire out their opponent. In all, I will back the under in the matchup.
Betting trends for Ohio State Buckeyes:
- Over is 6-0 in Buckeyes last 6 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
- Buckeyes are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Over is 8-0 in Buckeyes last 8 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Betting trends for Penn State Nittany Lions:
- Nittany Lions are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Over is 7-0 in Nittany Lions last 7 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Over is 6-0 in Nittany Lions last 6 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.