Florida Gators (3-1) vs Mississippi State Bulldogs (3-1)Date : 09/29/2018
Time : 6:00 pm EST
Location : Davis Wade Stadium, Starkville, Mississippi
Pick, Prediction, & Preview:
Florida Gators vs Mississippi State Bulldogs
The Florida Gators will travel to Davis Wade Stadium in Starkville, Mississippi, to face the 19th ranked Mississippi State Bulldogs on Saturday in an SEC showdown beginning at 6 pm EST. In their last meeting on October 16, 2010, the Bulldogs would get the 10-7 road win as they would cover the spread as 12.5 road dogs while the under was the play with the total being set at 47 points for the game. In their last outing, the Gators pick up the 47-21 road win over the Tennessee Volunteers as they would cover the as four points road favorites while the Bulldogs would not cover the ten point spread as road underdogs as they would suffer a 28-7 defeat to the Kentucky Wildcats. The Gators are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four meetings while the underdog is 3-0-1 ATS in the last four outings, overall. Also, the under is 4-1 in the last five games versus these teams.
Florida Gators's Latest Performance :
The Gators allowed 208 passing yards to the Tennessee Volunteers in their last outing, however, gave up 161 yards rushing to the Vols in their win. it would be important to note that they would also recover four fumbles in this matchup while also picking off two passes from the Volunteer offense. The Gators had a great day on the ground as well in putting up 201 yards on the ground led by Jordan Scarlett and Dameon Pierce who combined for 18 rushes for 140 yards along with two touchdowns in the victory. Felipe Franks threw for 172 yards with three interceptions while Freddie Swain would have 88 yards and a touchdown catch for the Gators. Florida will be in for a battle versus the Bulldogs in that they are ranked 7th in the nation in total yards allowed with 269 per game while only allowing 14 points per game to their opponents.
Mississippi State Bulldogs's Latest Performance :
Mississippi State scored first in this contest on a Nick Fitzgerald one-yard rushing touchdown, however, would not score again as the wildcats would hold them to only 56 yards rushing along with 145 passing yards for the game. Fitzgerald also had an interception in the game while the Bulldogs, as a team, had 139 yards in penalties in the loss. The receiving corps was led by Osiris Mitchell who had 65 yards on six catches. The loss would be the first of the year for the Bulldogs as their offense, ranked in the top 50 in passing and rushing, simply did not show up versus a stout Kentucky defense. They will certainly need to bring their A game this weekend as the Gators are slowly gaining momentum and with their win over Tennessee last weekend, their 19th ranked defense in points scored will be looking for yet another offense to feast on.
How Florida Gators & Mississippi State Bulldogs Matchup.
Vegas Odds, Offshore Odds, & Odds ATS:
Mississippi State is 3-1 ATS while the O/U is 1-2
Florida is 3-1 ATS while the O/U is 2-2
In-Depth Analysis of each team:
This will really be a defensive minded contest as both are allowing under 20 points per game to their opponents. Also, the bulldogs would like to make up for their performance against a pretty good Wildcats team last week while the Gators will look to build from their momentum gained from going on the road to beat Tennessee in their last outing. Look for Mississippi State and their 18th ranked rushing attack that is currently averaging 248 yards per game to establish themselves early in the trenches versus a Florida defense ranked 97th in the nation in stopping the run. Also, the gators will be looking to gain some ground on a Bulldogs defense that allows 121 yards rushing per game.
Against The Spread Selection: Pick: Florida Gators +7.5
My reason for the pick :
While I feel that both teams will play competitively, I happen to believe that the Gators will keep this game close due to their ability to prevent the Bulldogs from dominating in the trenches. As stated, Florida would go on the road to Knoxville to perform very well last weekend. With that being said, expect both the offense and defense for the Gators to possess a healthy amount of momentum for this game. On the other hand, the Bulldogs were beat up versus Kentucky and will take them some time to get back on track after a game where they were owned in every way possible.
Totals Selection: Pick: Under 50
My reason for the prediction :
Both Florida and Mississippi state are averaging around 40 points per game; However, these two defenses will be the best that they have had to face this year. Again, both teams are effective at running the ball and while I would give the edge to the home team as their defense has proven that they are much more built to stop the opponents’ rushing attack, I continue to believe that Florida will have a solid performance in which to keep this game close on Saturday night.
Betting trends for Florida Gators:
- Gators are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 conference games.
- Gators are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.
- Gators are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in September.
Betting trends for Mississippi State Bulldogs:
- Bulldogs are 6-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 5-1 in Bulldogs last 6 conference games.
- Under is 5-1 in Bulldogs last 6 games overall.