Texas Longhorns (3-1) vs Kansas State Wildcats (2-2)Date : 09/29/2018
Time : 3:30 pm EST
Location : Bill Snyder Family Stadium, Manhattan, Kansas
Pick, Prediction, & Preview:
Texas Longhorns vs Kansas State Wildcats
The Texas Longhorns will travel to Bill Snyder Family Stadium in Manhattan, Kansas, on Saturday for a Big 12 showdown versus the Kansas State Wildcats beginning at 3:30 pm EST. The Wildcats have won outright in the last five meetings in Manhattan while the Longhorns picked up the 40-34 home win on October 7, 2017. And while the Longhorns are 0-5 ATS in the last five meetings on the road in this matchup, they will come into this matchup with momentum as they picked up a 31-16 home win over TCU last Saturday as they outscored the Horned Frogs 21-3 in the second half to seal their third straight victory. The Wildcats fell on the road to the 13th ranked West Virginia Mountaineers last Saturday as they gave up 356 yards passing to Will Grier along with five touchdown passes in a 35-6 loss. The home team is 5-0-1 ATS in the last six games versus these two squads awhile the Longhorns are 2-8-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings overall.
Texas Longhorns's Latest Performance :
Will Grier found David Stills V (10 rec, 73 yds, 3 TD’s) along with Marcus Simms (5 rec, 136 yds, TD), and Tevin Bush (2 rec, 69 yds, TD) for TD passes in a huge win over the Wildcats at home last Saturday. Kansas State, on the other hand, could not capitalize on four turnovers by the Mountaineers due to their offense only racking up 91 yards rushing along with 227 passing yards. Skyler Thompson had 145 yards passing in the game while Isaiah Zuber finished with 10 receptions for 133 yards total. Alex Barnes led the rushing attack for the Wildcats with 49 yards in the loss. In all, Kansas needs to get much more production from their offense which is ranked 110th and 114th respectively, in total yards per game along with total points per game.
Kansas State Wildcats 's Latest Performance :
Sam Ehlinger passed for 255 yards along with two touchdown passes to Collin Johnson (7 rec, 124 yds, TD) and Lil’Jordan Humphrey (4 rec, 77 yds, TD). Texas would also find success against a 40th ranked TCU rush defense in racking up 118 yards on the ground with Tre Watson rushing for 58 total yards and a TD in the victory. The Texas defense would cause a fumble along with four interceptions in the contest while holding Shawn Robinson to 197 yards passing with a touchdown pass. Robinson would also lead the Horned Frogs in rushing as the team had 141 yards total on the ground for the game. TCU would take a 16-10 lead midway through the third quarter before Ehlinger threw his two touchdown passes to break the game open while the 43rd ranked Longhorn defense in points allowed with 21 points per outing held the TCU offense to 38% conversion rate on third down while permitting them to hold the ball for only 25:57 minutes for the game.
How Texas Longhorns & Kansas State Wildcats Matchup.
Vegas Odds, Offshore Odds, & Odds ATS:
Texas is 2-2 ATS while the O/U is 2-2
Kansas State is 1-3 ATS while the O/U is 1-3
In-Depth Analysis of each team:
Texas looks to continue their momentum in 2018 by battling Big 12 opponent Kansas State on Saturday. Of course, the Wildcats will be looking for a much better outing than what they illustrated in a terrible loss versus the high-scoring Mountaineers on the road last weekend. With that being said, look for a very competitive matchup on Saturday. Of course, the Wildcats have dominated this matchup outright in Manhattan, however, Texas seems to be a much better team with Ehlinger under center as he has played very well thus far in the season. Furthermore, with Thompson seeking to atone for his lackluster outing versus WVU, look for the Wildcats to be motivated to get a win over a team that they have dominated.
Against The Spread Selection: Pick: Texas Longhorns
My reason for the pick :
As stated, K-State has struggled on offense this year, however, they may find some success with Zuber against the Longhorns who are allowing 245 yards in the air per outing, good for only 91st in the nation. Texas, on the other hand, is stout in their run defense in only allowing 117 yards per game (29th). Nonetheless, with Thompson played below expectations, I expect the Longhorns to step up the pressure on the Wildcat offense to press the issues on Saturday. With a team in Kansas State averaging only 21 points per game, the Longhorns will be looking to take the running game away from the home team early in which to get after Thompson who tends to turn the ball over at critical points in the game. Also, with Ehlinger continuing to play solidly, expect the road team to play well in this matchup as they will pick up a slim victory over their Big 12 foe.
Totals Selection: Pick: Under
My reason for the prediction :
I will go with the trends for this matchup which points towards the under. The fact is that the Longhorns have performed well on both sides of the ball lately, particularly, on defense. They are currently ranked 61st in the country allowing 362 yards total to their opponents while the Wildcats are ranked 110th in the nation is putting up 347 yards per game. In all, look for Texas to get after this offense that has been stagnant all season long versus top-notch opponents. I expect Texas to score just enough to get the win while locking down their opponent throughout the matchup, thus allowing the under to be the play.
Betting trends for Texas Longhorns:
- Under is 5-1 in Longhorns last 6 games on fieldturf
- Under is 4-1 in Longhorns last 5 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game
- Under is 23-6 in Longhorns last 29 games following an ATS win.
Betting trends for Kansas State Wildcats :
- Under is 4-0 in Wildcats last 4 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game
- Wildcats are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games in September
- Under is 5-1 in Wildcats last 6 games overall