Auburn Tigers (4-1) vs Mississippi State Bulldogs (3-2)Date : 10/06/2018
Time : 7:30 pm EST
Location : Davis Wade Stadium, Starkville, Mississippi
Pick, Prediction, & Preview:
Auburn Tigers vs Mississippi State Bulldogs
An SEC matchup between the 10th ranked Auburn Tigers and the 19th ranked Mississippi State Bulldogs will take place at Davis Wade Stadium in Starkville, Mississippi, on Saturday afternoon at 3:30 pm EST. The Tigers picked up a 24-13 home win versus the Eagles of Southern Mississippi last Saturday as they were not able to cover the 24-point spread as home favorites while the Bulldogs suffered the 13-6 loss at home to the Florida Gators as they were also not able to cover the spread as seven-point home favorites. Nonetheless, in their last four meetings, both teams won two games each while both the Bulldogs and Tigers covered the spread in two games apiece. The under was the play in three of the last four games amongst these two squads while being the play in the last six meetings at Davis Wade Stadium.
Auburn Tigers's Latest Performance :
Auburn got two touchdown passes from Jared Stidham along with 245 yards total in a much-needed win over the Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles last Saturday. Their 65th ranked rushing game could not get totally on track as they had 96 yards rushing for the day with Kam Martin leading the attack with 90 yards on 24 rushes. Auburn played a shaky game overall in racking up 78 yards on nine penalties while fumbling twice and losing one to the Golden Eagles. The Tigers leading rusher in JaTarvious Whitlow is questionable with an undisclosed injury. The defense picked up three turnovers for the day, however, allowed the Golden Eagles only 2.1 yards per rush along with converting only two for 13 third down attempts for the game. The Tigers will need to be on their A game this week as the Mississippi State defense is ranked 11th in the country in giving up only 287 yards per game to their opponents while allowing only 13.4 points per game.
Mississippi State Bulldogs's Latest Performance :
Mississippi State gave up ten points in the second half to Florida while their offense would not score in the second half en route to a huge 13-6 home loss to the Gators on last Saturday. The offense for the Bulldogs only garnered 202 total yards on the day as the rushing attack racked up 104 yards with Nick Fitzgerald having 32 of those on 20 rushes. Fitzgerald and the passing game were nonexistent as Mississippi passed for only 98 yards with Osirus Mitchell having 35 yards on three catches. The Bulldogs’ 31st ranked rush defense allowed 118 yards to Florida while also giving up 7.5 yards per catch to the Gator passing attack that obtained 239 passing yards for the day in the win. Finally, the Bulldogs were able to only hold the football for 26:13 minutes while converting two for 12 third down conversions in the loss. Things will certainly not get any easier for their struggling offense as they now look to face a top 50 defense in Auburn that is allowing its opponents to put up only 12.6 points per game in 2018.
How Auburn Tigers & Mississippi State Bulldogs Matchup.
Vegas Odds, Offshore Odds, & Odds ATS:
Mississippi State is 3-2 ATS while the O/U is 1-3
Auburn is 2-3 ATS while the O/U is 1-4
In-Depth Analysis of each team:
This SEC matchup will be important for both these teams as the Bulldogs will not want to go 0-3 to start their conference campaign while they will also be looking to atone for a deflating home loss to the Gators last week. The Tigers, on the other hand, will look to get their offense on track versus a very stout defensive unit to keep pace with the big boys of the Western division in LSU and Bama. With Auburn’s blowout win versus Mississippi State last year at Davis Wade Stadium, the Bulldogs will certainly be looking for a bit of payback this year at home.
Against The Spread Selection: Pick: Mississippi State Bulldogs +3
My reason for the pick :
While the Tigers picked up the win in last year’s contest, I will back the Bulldogs at home in this year’s matchup as they will not only be looking to play much better versus a team that owned them in last year’s contest, but, they will be focused on playing much better, from an offensive standpoint, in which to get their first conference win of the season. Of course, they must be able to neutralize Auburn’s 28th ranked rushing attack with Kaylin Hill (348 yards) and Nick Fitzgerald (5 TD’s) while the potential absence of Jartavious Whitlow (326 yards, 4 TD’s) could be a blessing that could somehow allow them to contain Auburn’s 65th ranked rushing attack. In all, with the Bulldogs’ 31st ranked rush defense, I happen to believe that they can pick up an all-important conference win over a struggling offense for the Tigers on Saturday.
Totals Selection: Pick: Under (off)
My reason for the prediction :
This has all the makings of an under matchup with the Bulldogs 31st ranked rush defense along with Auburn’s 8th ranked rushing defensive unit. Besides, both teams are only allowing less than 15 points per game which signifies that this game will be a fight within the trenches for the duration. Also, the under has been the play in the last few meetings amongst these two squads, thus allowing me to back the under as it will certainly be the strongest play in this instance.
Betting trends for Auburn Tigers:
- Under is 4-0 in Tigers last 4 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game
- Tigers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game
- Tigers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up win.
Betting trends for Mississippi State Bulldogs:
- Under is 4-0 in Bulldogs last 4 games following a straight up loss
- Under is 4-0 in Bulldogs last 4 conference games
- Bulldogs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 conference games.