Georgia State Panthers (2-3) vs Troy Trojans (4-1)Date : 10/04/2018
Time : 7:30 pm EST
Location : Veterans Memorial Stadium, Troy, Alabama
Pick, Prediction, & Preview:
Georgia State Panthers vs Troy Trojans
The Georgia State Panthers will travel to Veterans Memorial Stadium in Troy, Alabama, to take on the Troy Trojans on Thursday night at 7:30 pm EST as the week six of the college football season will kickoff. Both teams picked up wins in week five as the Panthers took a 46-14 win at home versus the Louisiana Monroe Warhawks last Saturday as they shut out the visitors in the second half en route to a huge Sun Belt victory while Troy demolished Coastal Carolina 45-21 at home as well in covering the spread as 14 point favorites while the over was the play with the total being set at 56.5 points for the game. Troy won two of the past three matchups SU versus the Panthers while Georgia State has covered the spread in two of the last three overall. Finally, the Under has been the play in the last three contests amongst these two squads.
Georgia State Panthers's Latest Performance :
Georgia State also had a dominant performance on the defensive end as they allowed only 262 total yards to the Warhawks last Saturday en route to a blowout home win. The defense recorded two recovered fumbles while obtaining two interceptions as the Warhawks only possessed the ball for a total of 21:48 seconds. Its 118th ranked rush defense allowed 125 yards on the ground, however, allowed a 6.3 yard per rush average to Louisiana Monroe. Nonetheless, the Panthers allowed them to only covert two of 11 third down conversions for the game. The Panthers will deal with injuries to their defensive secondary as cornerback Jerome Smith along with safeties DeAndre Applin and Remy Lazarus are all suffering from undisclosed injuries and are not certain as to whether they will suit up versus a team in Troy that averages 37 points per game. Offensively, Dan Ellington threw for 179 yards and a score in the contest while rushing for 64 yards and a rushing score as well. Nonetheless, Seth Paige led the rushing attack with 145 yards total on nine carries along with two TD’s in the win. Sam Pinkney caught two passes for 74 yards to lead a passing attack that puts up 206 yards per game and ranked 90th in the nation.
Troy Trojans's Latest Performance :
Troy scored 21 points in the first half while outscoring the Chanticleers of Coastal Carolina 21-7 in the second half on their way to their fourth straight victory as their running game was the catalyst as the Trojans collected 282 yards on the ground as Jabir Daughtry Fry (140 yds, 5 rushes, TD) and B.J. Smith (103 yards, 10 rushes, 2 TD’s) led the way for a Trojan rushing attack that has averaged over 196 yards on the ground this season. The passing attack was led by QB Kaleb Barker with 143 yards and a touchdown pass to Deondre Douglas who led the receiving corps with 62 yards on four catches on the day. The defensive unit for the Trojans recovered one of three fumbles committed by the Chanticleers while allowing only 2.7 yards per rush for the game. Its 82nd ranked pass defense allowed 172 passing yards in the contest despite allowing Coastal Carolina holding the ball for over 40 minutes for the game. Defensive lineman Marcus Webb, however, is questionable for Thursday’s game with a leg injury for Troy while the offense will probably be without TE Sam Letton, RB Jamarious Henderson, along with receiver Traveon Samuel for yet another week as they are each serving suspensions.
How Georgia State Panthers & Troy Trojans Matchup.
Vegas Odds, Offshore Odds, & Odds ATS:
Troy is 3-1 ATS while the O/U is 3-1
Georgia State is 3-0 ATS while the O/U is 0-3
In-Depth Analysis of each team:
This will be an interesting Sun Belt conference matchup as Georgia State would like to keep their outstanding play going after losing three straight before their blowout win versus Louisiana Monroe; However, Troy is at home and have certainly been playing well for the past few weeks. In all, I see this matchup as being one where Troy may very well dominate due to the consistency that they have shown on offense. Besides, with the Panthers being off and on concerning both sides of the ball, they are simply not to be counted upon, particularly on the road where they already suffered two blowout losses this year.
Against The Spread Selection: Pick: Troy Trojans -17
My reason for the pick :
While both Sun Belt teams obtained a bit more momentum for their season in week five with blowout wins, Troy continues to have an effective season as they have really shined through the first few weeks of their 2018 campaign. After being blown out by Boise State at home in week one, they rebounded to outscore their opponents by a 163-74 in their next four games while also beating Nebraska by a 24-19 score in week three. In all, I expect them to win in what should be a high scoring matchup amongst two teams that have lit things up on the offensive end; However, the Trojans and their defense will make the necessary stops, on a middle of the road Panther offense that can indeed have trouble with offensive efficiency, in which to cover the 17 points.
Totals Selection: Pick: Over (off)
My reason for the prediction :
Again, Georgia state may not score as much as they should due to their offensive inconsistencies, however, they possess many weapons starting with Ellington who is a duel threat QB that can really take over a game. Also, Troy has struggled in defending the pass this year as well, thus allowing me to take the over in this matchup. Of course, the Trojans will indeed score on a GSU defense that allows 34 points to their opponents, however, I also see the Panthers getting some breaks due to a shaky Troy defense as well.
Betting trends for Georgia State Panthers:
- Panthers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 conference games
- Panthers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games
- Panthers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Betting trends for Troy Trojans:
- Trojans are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Thursday games
- Under is 6-0 in Trojans last 6 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game
- Over is 6-0 in Trojans last 6 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.