Iowa State Cyclones (1-3) vs Oklahoma State Cowboys (4-1)Date : 10/06/2018
Time : 3:30 pm EST
Location : T. Boone Pickens Field in Stillwater, Oklahoma
Pick, Prediction, & Preview:
Iowa State Cyclones vs Oklahoma State Cowboys
The Iowa State Cyclones will travel to T. Boone Pickens Stadium in Stillwater, Oklahoma, for a Big 12 matchup verses the 21st ranked Oklahoma State Cowboys on Saturday at 3:30 pm EST. And while the Cyclones covered the spread as 14-point road underdogs in their last meeting in Stillwater, they are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings at T. Boone Pickens Stadium, altogether. Oklahoma won their last meeting in Ames by a 49-42 score as the Cyclones covered as 7.5 home dogs while the over has been the play in four of the last five meetings amongst these two squads, overall. The over would not be the play, however, in the Cyclones’ matchup versus the Horned Frogs of TCU on Saturday as they suffered a 17-14 loss; Yet, they were able to cover the spread as 11-point underdogs in the matchup. The Cowboys outscored the Kansas Jayhawks 24-7 in the first half and cruised to a 48-28 road win in week five to where they covered as 17-point road favorites while the over was the play with 57 points being set for the contest. The home team in this matchup is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings, overall.
Iowa State Cyclones's Latest Performance :
Iowa State’s David Montgomery scored on a one yard run to tie the game at 14 all midway through the fourth quarter after a Ben Banogu 47-yard fumble recovery for a touchdown that put the Horned Frogs up 14-7. Unfortunately, TCU drove the ball into Cyclone territory late in the game and with a Jonathan Song 28-yard field goal, the Horned Frogs picked up a three-point victory in week five over Iowa State at home. The Cyclones 31st ranked rush defense allowed 117 yards on the day while its 56th ranked defense versus the pass allowed 182 total yards to Shawn Robinson (TD, INT) and the Horned Frogs. Iowa State, on the other hand, only racked up 198 yards for the game in putting up only 79 yard in the air with Zeb Noland throwing for a touchdown pass to Charlie Kolar to put the Cyclones up 7-0 early in the game. The inconsistent rushing attack for Iowa State got a 119 yard for the game with Montgomery having 101 yards on 20 rushes and a touchdown, however, he will be uncertain to play after an apparent injury late in the game that could render him out for the foreseeable future. Iowa state finds itself 0-2 within he Big 12 thus far in the season and very much in need of a win to build some much-needed confidence.
Oklahoma State Cowboys's Latest Performance :
As stated, the Cowboys jumped on the Jayhawks early and often as Taylor Cornelius (312 yards 4 TD’s, INT) threw for three scores in the first half to go up 24-7 at the half. Cornelius also threw a touchdown pass to Tyron Johnson to put Oklahoma State up by 20 midway through the fourth quarter en route to the victory. The passing attack averaged 15.6 yards per catch with Landon Wolf (6 rec, 116 yds, TD) along with Tylan Wallace (4 rec, 104 yds, TD) leading the receiving corps. Receiver Dillon Stoner is day to day with an undisclosed injury for their next matchup versus the Cyclones for the Cowboys. The Jayhawks were destroyed on defense by the Cowboys’ rushing attack that put up 256 total yards with Justice Hill racking up 189 yards and a score in the victory; However, running back La’Darren Brown is day to day with an ankle injury for OSU. The Cowboys’ 27th ranked rush defense allowed 121 yards on the ground to Kansas while their passing attack only managed 247 yards for the contest. Linebacker Calvin Bundage may not suit up for this game for the Cowboys with an ankle injury.
How Iowa State Cyclones & Oklahoma State Cowboys Matchup.
Vegas Odds, Offshore Odds, & Odds ATS:
Iowa State is 1-2 ATS while the O/U is 1-2
Oklahoma State is 3-2 ATS while the O/U is 3-2
In-Depth Analysis of each team:
As stated, Iowa state will be certainly focused on becoming more consistent in their rushing attack, despite possibly not having the services of Montgomery, along with better utilizing their playmaker Hakeem Butler (311 yards, 3 TD’s) within their 85th ranked passing attack in which to get a win over the Cowboys. And while their defense is ranked in the top 30 for the nation with 333 yards per outing, they will certainly have their fair share of issues with an explosive Cowboys offense that is 6th in the nation in total yards (545) while putting up 44.4 points on their opponents. Expect both teams to be very competitive as each are familiar with each other and, most importantly, are focused on obtaining an all-important Big 12 victory on Saturday.
Against The Spread Selection: Pick: Oklahoma State Cowboys -10.5
My reason for the pick :
I must back the Cowboys at home in this matchup as they are indeed a dangerous team on offense. Iowa state has struggled in 2018 as they have been outscored 30-17 on the road this season. Nonetheless, they have had recent success verses the Cowboys as they covered the spread in their last matchup versus Oklahoma State in 2016. In all, look for the Cowboys to remain consistent in their rush defense that allows 113 yards per game, however, the Cyclones may indeed have success versus their pass defense that allows 375 yards per game. Of course, they will need to utilize Butler much more while Noland (715 yard) will certainly need to play much more consistent moving forward; Nonetheless, I expect the Cowboys to prevail in the end.
Totals Selection: Pick: Under (off)
My reason for the prediction :
I will back the under in this contest as I believe in the defense for the Cyclones as they have proven to be a solid bunch in that they are only allowing opponents to average 20 points per contest this year while their pass and rush defense is ranked in the top 50, overall. With that being said, the Cowboys defense is ranked 27th in the nation and while their passing defense can be suspect, I happen to believe that the Cyclones passing attack is very subpar due to their dismal play at quarterback, thus allowing me to pick the under as the strong play in this contest. Nonetheless, expect the Cowboys to put up some scores in this matchup as they will lock down this offense for Iowa state for much of the game and allowing the under to be the result after four quarters.
Betting trends for Iowa State Cyclones:
- Under is 6-0 in Cyclones last 6 road games
- Under is 4-0 in Cyclones last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record
- Under is 6-0 in Cyclones last 6 games on fieldturf.
Betting trends for Oklahoma State Cowboys:
- Over is 7-0 in Cowboys last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record
- Cowboys are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a losing record
- Over is 8-1 in Cowboys last 9 vs. a team with a losing record.