SMU Mustangs (2-3) vs Central Florida Knights (4-0)Date : 10/06/2018
Time : 7:00 pm EST
Location : Spectrum Stadium, Orlando, Florida
Pick, Prediction, & Preview:
SMU Mustangs vs Central Florida Knights
The Mustangs of Southern Methodist University will travel to Spectrum Stadium in Orlando, Florida, to battle the 13th ranked Central Florida Knights on Saturday night at 7 pm EST. The Mustangs are coming off a 63-27 home win over the Huskies of Houston Baptist University last weekend as they went up 35-10 at the half while cruising in the second half to a victory, their second straight. The Knights picked up a 45-14 home win over the reeling Pitt Panthers in week five as the rushing and passing attack was unstoppable in totaling 568 total yards for the game while allowing only 272 total yards for the Panthers. These teams last met on November 4, 2017 as the Knights picked up the 31-24 road win to where the Mustangs covered as 14-point underdogs while the under was the play with the total being set at 76 points for the game. The home team is 6-0-1 ATS in the last seven meetings amongst these teams while the Mustangs are 0-3-1 ATS in the last four meetings in Orlando. The favorite in this matchup is 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight meetings, overall.
SMU Mustangs 's Latest Performance :
SMU had an easy day in their last outing as William Brown threw for 309 yards, 2 TD’s, along with an interception in a blowout win over Houston Baptist University. Reggie Roberson Jr (4 rec, 104 yds) and Tyler Page (3 rec, 102 yds, TD) led a receiving corps that averaged 11.1 yards per catch while the rushing attack collected 244 yards total with Braeden West leading the way with 12 rushes for 69 yards along with two touchdowns. SMU would, however, commit two turnovers in the loss yet converted seven of 14 third down conversions for the game. The defense held the Huskies to only 301 yards total for the game as the rushing attack averaged only 2.2 yards per carry while allowing the passing attack 247 yards for a 4.7 yards per catch average. The defensive unit also collected three turnovers while allowing the Huskies to possess the ball for only 27:04 minutes in the loss.
Central Florida Knights's Latest Performance :
Milton McKenzie threw for 328 yards and four touchdowns in their home win over the Pitt Panthers last weekend while also rushing for 51 yards in the contest. Nonetheless, Greg McCrae led a rushing attack that racked up 240 yards for the game with 64 rushes on ten carries. Adrian Killins Jr obtained 140 yards along with a touchdown catch in the win as the offense averaged 9.6 yards per catch. The defense was stellar in allowing only 3.3 yards per rush to a Panther squad that has been punishing opponents on the ground in 2018 as they allowed only 163 yards passing to Kenny Pickett and the Pittsburgh offense that has also struggled this year.
How SMU Mustangs & Central Florida Knights Matchup.
Vegas Odds, Offshore Odds, & Odds ATS:
UCF is 3-1 ATS while the O/U is 2-2
SMU is 2-2 ATS while the O/U is 2-2
In-Depth Analysis of each team:
While SMU has won two straight games, the fact is that those wins were over teams that they were supposed to play well against such as Navy, to whom they picked up a one-point win in a 31-30 home win, and Houston Baptist, of course. With that being the case, they lost to North Texas, TCU and Michigan by a combined 143-56 score. UCF continues to remain solid on both sides of the ball as they are ranked in the top 20 in every major offensive category while their defense has struggled in stopping the run yet are ranked 15th in the nation in points allowed with 16.8 points per game. On the other hand, SMU’s passing game has been their best asset as they rank 70th in the nation in averaging 229.4 yards in the air per outing.
Against The Spread Selection: Pick: UCF Knights -24
My reason for the pick :
The Knights will run the football in this matchup to break the will of a SMU defense that allows 184 yards on the ground to their opponent on a weekly basis. Also, McKenzie and company will have a great day in the passing attack as the Mustangs also struggle to defend the pass as well. In all, look for the Knights to cover the spread in this matchup as the Mustangs are simply not good at all versus top-notch competition. As stated, they were demolished by North Texas, TCU and Michigan, yet, would pick up a slim victory versus Navy in their first win of 2018 before whipping up on HBU. In all, look for them to struggle on the road yet again as they have not proven that they can win away from home.
Totals Selection: Pick: Under 73
My reason for the prediction :
I will back the under in this contest in that the Knights will certainly score points in this matchup, however, the under has been the result in two of their three outings this year at home and I expect this to be the case on Saturday. While UCF possesses talent at the skill positions, their goal is to play outstanding defense on a weekly basis along with operating an efficient offense that heavily relies on a punishing running game. With that being said, the Knights seek to control the trenches throughout this contest. Of course, points will be scored because of this strategy however, the home team will score just enough to preserve their lead to the end. In all, the score will not go above the total of 73 in the contest as the Knights will lock down SMU’s offense while the home team will put up some scores early while cruising in the second half.
Betting trends for SMU Mustangs :
- Under is 4-0 in Mustangs last 4 games following a straight up win.
- Over is 7-0 in Mustangs last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Over is 4-0 in Mustangs last 4 conference games.
Betting trends for Central Florida Knights:
- Knights are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
- Knights are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Over is 5-0 in Knights last 5 conference games.