Utah State Aggies (3-1) vs BYU Cougars (3-2)Date : 10/05/2018
Time : 9:00 pm EST
Location : LaVell Edwards Stadium, Provo, Utah
Pick, Prediction, & Preview:
Utah State Aggies vs BYU Cougars
The Utah State Aggies will travel to LaVell Edwards Stadium in Provo, Utah, to battle the Cougars of Brigham Young for a week five matchup on Friday night at 9 pm EST. The Aggies picked up the 40-24 home win last year as they covered the spread as one-point home underdogs, however, BYU cashed in on the spread in the two meetings prior to their outing in 2017. The under has been the play in five of the last six meetings amongst these teams in Provo while the underdog is 8-2 ATS in the last ten meetings. BYU suffered a 35-7 road loss to the 10th ranked Washington Huskies in week four as they did not score until the final period while having only 194 yards total versus giving up 464 yards to the Huskies. The Aggies did not play in week four yet would pick up a 42-32 home win versus the Falcons of Air Force as they overcame two turnovers along with a terrible third down conversion rate (three for nine) to pick up their third straight win.
Utah State Aggies's Latest Performance :
Utah State picked up a huge win over Air Force in week three while continuing to have a great start to their season. They would drop their first game of the season to the Spartans of Michigan State in week one, however, were competitive until the end with a chance to pull off the upset in the end. Nonetheless, they have won three straight since then while outscoring their last three opponents by a score of 175-57. They covered the spread in each matchup of the 2018 campaign while the over has been the play in each game. QB Jordan Love has thrown for 1070 yards with five TD’s for the season while also throwing three picks while Gerold Bright leads the team in rushing with 288 yards on 40 attempts and four TD’s. Ron’Quavion Tarver leads the receiving corps with 228 yards for the year for an offense that is ranked fourth in the nation in averaging 52 points per game. The defense ranks 53rd in the nation in allowing 23.8 points per game while ranking 56th in total yards allowed with 358 yards per game.
BYU Cougars's Latest Performance :
BYU had no chance versus Washington State in their last matchup as they had only 34 yards rushing while having only seven first downs for the game compared to 26 total for the Huskies. The passing game collected 160 yards as Tanner Mangum went 18 for 21 during the contest yet rushing for -18 yards in the loss. Lopini Katoa led the rushing attack with 27 yards and a score while also leading the receiving corps with 66 yards on seven catches. The defense for BYU allowed 277 yards along with a touchdown pass to Jake Browning while allowing its rushing attack to obtain 187 yards total with Salvon Ahmad and Myles Gaskin combining for 167 yards on 24 rushes along with three TD’s. Running back Squally Canada is uncertain for BYU’s matchup versus Utah State due to an undisclosed injury.
How Utah State Aggies & BYU Cougars Matchup.
Vegas Odds, Offshore Odds, & Odds ATS:
Utah State is 4-0 ATS while the O/U is 4-0
BYU is 3-2 ATS while the O/U is 0-5
In-Depth Analysis of each team:
BYU will be looking for payback after their embarrassing loss to their in-state rival Utah State last year. The problem is that their offense has struggled with efficiency in 2018 and I am unsure as to if they will be able to keep up in this area, particularly with USU scoring so many points per game. Also, BYU’s defense is not as talented as in years past yet their offense, on the other hand, is only averaging 21 points per game. The Cougars are 125th in the nation in total yards with only 295 per game while the Aggies are putting up over 50 pints per game. And while their defense is ranked 53rd in points allowing per game with 24, the offense is essentially the headliner and will certainly take center stage in this matchup.
Against The Spread Selection: Pick: Utah State +2
My reason for the pick :
Of course, this is a rivalry game and, as stated, the Cougars will be looking to play much better than they did in last year’s blowout; Nonetheless, their defense will certainly have to be able to get the offense for the Aggies off the field to do so. BYU is ranked 60th in the nation in stopping the run while being 49th in pass defense and have been able to slow down the pace of games earlier in the year against offensive-minded opponents in which to keep things close in order to have a much better chance of pulling out a win. And though they may come out with much emotion and intensity, I happen to believe that USU will indeed be rested and ready to compete as they will indeed cover the plus points on the road on Friday.
Totals Selection: Pick: Under 55.5
My reason for the prediction :
I certainly recognize how potent the Aggies offense is; However, the Cougars will not only be stewing due to their last lost versus Washington State and their lackluster effort, but, they will also be thinking of their effort in last year’s blowout by Utah State as well entering this contest. With that being said, expect them to slow down the pace of this game while utilizing their rushing attack while eating tons of clock. In all, the goal will be to keep the offense for the Aggies off the field to which I feel that the Cougar defense will somehow accomplish in this matchup to allow the under to be the strong play.
Betting trends for Utah State Aggies:
- Aggies are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
- Aggies are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Over is 4-0 in Aggies last 4 games following an ATS win.
Betting trends for BYU Cougars:
- Cougars are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Cougars are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up loss.
- Cougars are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game.