Appalachian State Mountaineers (3-1) vs Arkansas State Red Wolves (3-2)Date : 10/09/2018
Time : 8:00 pm EST
Location : Centennial Bank Stadium, Jonesboro, Arkansas
Pick, Prediction, & Preview:
Appalachian State Mountaineers vs Arkansas State Red Wolves
The Appalachian State Mountaineers will travel to Centennial Bank Stadium in Jonesboro, Arkansas, to face the Arkansas State Red Wolves for a Sun Belt conference matchup on Tuesday night at 8 pm EST. The last time these two teams met was for a home and home series in 2014-15 to where the road team picked up wins in both contests with the average margin of victory being nine points. The Mountaineers won their third straight game after losing to the Penn State Nittany Lions in week one by a 45-38 score, by beating South Alabama by a 52-7 score at home win week five to where they went in at the half 42-7 en route to the easy victory. The Red Wolves ran into the first placed team in the Sun belt conference in Georgia Southern and lost by a 28-21 score at home in week five as their rush defense allowed 348 yards for the game and could not recover. The over has been the call in their last two meetings.
Appalachian State Mountaineers 's Latest Performance :
Appalachian State had an easy day versus the South Alabama Jaguars in their last outing as they allowed Jalin Moore to lead the way with 123 yards along with two TD’s in the matchup. The rushing attack scorched for the shaky rush defense for the Jaguars in collecting 348 yards on the ground for a 7.6 yards per carry average. QB Zack Thomas also threw for 146 yards, 2 touchdowns, along with two interceptions in the win for App State as the passing game averaged 8.4 yards per catch in the win. Thomas Hennigan led the receiving corps with four receptions for 65 yards in the game. The Mountaineeers 11th ranked rush defense held the Jaguars to 83 yards rushing while the pass defense that allows only 172 yards gave up 225 yards in the game. They certainly look to dominate a Jaguar’s team on Saturday that allows 245 yards per outing on the ground to their opponents.
Arkansas State Red Wolves 's Latest Performance :
Arkansas State racked up 376 passing yards for an average of 7.4 yards per catch versus Georgia Southern in their last time out as Justice Hansen threw for a touchdown while also rushing for 40 yards and a TD in the loss. The running game averaged 3.3 yards per carry as Marcel Murray led the way with 42 yards on 10 rushes for the Red Wolves. Kirk Merritt had eleven catches for 92 yards total with a score for Arkansas State as their offense converted a respectable eight for 18 third downs in the contest. Their defense, however, was awful in allowing the Eagles to average 7.1 yards per carry despite them allowing Georgia Southern to convert only four for ten third down conversions in the game. Arkansas State won two straight games before their matchup with the Eagles, however, their 124th ranked rush defense was certainly exposed once again as they will likely become exploited once again as the Mountaineers enter the game with the 9th ranked rushing attack in the nation.
How Appalachian State Mountaineers & Arkansas State Red Wolves Matchup.
Vegas Odds, Offshore Odds, & Odds ATS:
Appalachian State is 4-0 ATS while the O/U is 4-0
Arkansas State is 1-4 ATS while the O/U is 2-3
In-Depth Analysis of each team:
Both teams have had a week to lick their wounds and will come into the game very healthy. Appalachian State has played well all season long and are a very solid defensive unit. Their offense, by the way, is ranked in the top 50 in both passing and rushing categories and will certainly look to exploit the Red Wolves defense that is allowing 29 points per game. Arkansas State, on the other hand, has struggled in stopping the run this year and will find it difficult to remain competitive in this matchup. Their offense, however, has a decent passing and rushing attack in ranking within the top 50 in each category and will look forward to the challenge of going up against a defense in App State that is ranked 6th in total yards per game with only 276 yards per outing.
Against The Spread Selection: Pick; Appalachian State Mountaineers (off)
My reason for the pick :
I will back the Mountaineers in this matchup as they will certainly be able to get some huge chunks of yardage on a defense for the Red Wolves that is very giving in their rush defense. As sated, this will not be good for Arkansas State as the Mountaineers rank in the top ten in rushing offense with 270 yards per game. with their ability to run at will, Appalachian State will be able to open opportunities for their passing game that averages 254 yards per game. Of course, with Arkansas State’s 5th ranked pass defense, it will be interesting to see how the Mountaineers fare in this department. Nonetheless, with their running game clocking on all cylinders, look for them to roll once again on Saturday.
Totals Selection: Game 3: Over (off)
My reason for the prediction :
While the under has been the call in three straight games for the Red Wolves, the over has been the play in each of the games for Appalachian State this year while also being the result in the last two games amongst these two teams, as stated. With that being said, expect the over to be the call once again as I see the home team blowing this game open early as their running game will shine versus a shaky defensive front for Arkansas State. Of course, the Red wolves will make it interesting early and will pick up some points throughout the game, but, not enough to put the Mountaineers in jeopardy of losing.
Betting trends for Appalachian State Mountaineers :
- Over is 4-0 in Mountaineers last 4 games overall.
- Mountaineers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games.
- Over is 4-0 in Mountaineers last 4 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Betting trends for Arkansas State Red Wolves :
- Red Wolves are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Red Wolves are 0-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 5-0 in Red Wolves last 5 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game