Northwestern Wildcats (1-3) vs Michigan State Spartans (3-1)Date : 10/06/2018
Time : 12:00 pm EST
Location : Spartan Stadium, East Lansing, Michigan
Pick, Prediction, & Preview:
Northwestern Wildcats vs Michigan State Spartans
The Northwestern Wildcats will travel to Spartan Stadium in East Lansing, Michigan, for a Big Ten battle versus the 19th ranked Spartans of Michigan State on Saturday afternoon at noon. The last time these two teams met was on October 28, 2017 as the Wildcats picked up the 39-31 home win as they covered the spread as 1.5 home underdogs while the over was the play with the total being set at 41.5 points for the game. The wildcats are 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings in East Lansing while the road team is 12-2 ATS in their last 14 meetings, overall. Finally, the underdog is 10-4 ATS in the last fours meetings between these two teams. In their last outing, the Spartans picked up the 31-20 road win over the Chippewas of Central Michigan last Saturday as they would cruise well into the third quarter with a 31-3 lead before the home team scored 17 points in the third period to make it interesting. Nonetheless, the Spartans won their second in a row. On the other hand, the Wildcats lost a nail-biter on the road to the 16th ranked Michigan Wolverines in week five as Karan Higdon dashed for five yards into the endzone to erase a four-point lead for the Wildcats while sealing the 20-17 home victory for Michigan in the process.
Northwestern Wildcats's Latest Performance :
The Wildcats suffered a terrible loss in a low scoring contest at the Big House versus Michigan last weekend as they were leading in the fourth quarter until the Wolverines’ Karan Higdon scored late in the game to give the home team the lead while sending Northwestern to their third straight loss. The Wildcats would have a nonproductive day on offense in racking up only 202 yards for the game for a .8 average per carry while Clayton Thorson threw for 174 yards in the loss with no touchdowns. The offense has had no running game to speak of while the passing game has struggled as a result as the team is only averaging 22.2 points per game, ranking them 107th in the nation.
Michigan State Spartans's Latest Performance :
The Spartans ran for 160 yards for a 3.4 yard per carry average in their most recent win versus Central Michigan with La’darius Jefferson leading the way with 56 yards on 13 carries. Brian Lewerke also scored twice on the ground while also passing for 185 yards along with an interception. The defense for MSU allowed the Chippewas only 63 yards on the ground while its 115th ranked passing attack gave up 182 yards to Tommy Lazzaro and the Central Michigan passing attack. In fact, Lazzaro threw for a touchdown along with two interceptions in the loss while the offense possessed the ball for a bit over 22 minutes for the ball game.
How Northwestern Wildcats & Michigan State Spartans Matchup.
Vegas Odds, Offshore Odds, & Odds ATS:
Northwestern is 2-2 ATS while the O/U is 2-2
Michigan State is 1-3 ATS while the O/U is 3-1
In-Depth Analysis of each team:
It is difficult to attempt to break down how the Wildcats could possibly keep this matchup close with the Spartans, much less win outright. Of course, the Spartans can make this game much harder than it needs to be if they were to enter the game without the necessary focus, however, with the way that they have played recently, that is not likely to happen. However, Thorson may indeed have some luck in exploiting MSU’s shaky pass defense which gives up 237 yards per game. Other than this, the Wildcats are averaging only 95 yards on the ground and will be faced with the top ranked rushing defense in Michigan State who allows 40 yards rushing to their opponents in 2018.
Against The Spread Selection: Pick: Michigan State -11
My reason for the pick :
While I feel as though Northwestern may indeed have some early success versus the pass defense for Michigan state early, this will not continue for long as the Spartans will stuff the running game for the Wildcats and will commence to teeing off on Thorson for the remainder of the game. In all, expect the Spartans to have a dominant performance over a one-dimensional offense in Northwestern that has struggled this season despite having tons of expectations to begin their campaign.
Totals Selection: Pick: Under 43
My reason for the prediction :
Michigan Sate is averaging 29 points per game this season while allowing its opponents 22 points per outing. Their Achilles heel happens to be their pass defense to which teams have really taken advantage of this year. Northwestern may have success early in this area yet without no running game to keep the MSU defense honest, they will begin to bring the pressure more and more over time. This means that the Northwestern offense will be shut down by an aggressive and physical Spartan defense that thrives on winning within the trenches. It is for this season that the under sounds logical in this instance.
Betting trends for Northwestern Wildcats:
- Wildcats are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games.
- Over is 6-0-1 in Wildcats last 7 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Over is 5-0-1 in Wildcats last 6 road games.
Betting trends for Michigan State Spartans:
- Over is 5-1 in Spartans last 6 games overall.
- Over is 5-1 in Spartans last 6 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Over is 4-1 in Spartans last 5 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.