San Diego State Aztecs (3-1) vs Boise State Broncos (3-1)Date : 10/06/2018
Time : 3:30 pm EST
Location : Albertson's Stadium, Boise, Idaho
Pick, Prediction, & Preview:
San Diego State Aztecs vs Boise State Broncos
The Aztecs of San Diego State will face the 24th ranked Boise State Broncos at Albertson’s Stadium in Boise, Idaho, on Saturday afternoon at 3:30 pm EST for a Mountain West showdown. The Aztecs won their third straight game as the picked up a 23-20 home win over the Eastern Michigan Eagles in their last outing as the offense averaged 4.7 yards per rush while gaining a total of 174 yards total en route to the win. The Broncos also picked up a win versus the Wyoming Cowboys at War Memorial Stadium last week as they picked up the 34-14 blowout win as they went up 24-0 at the half while cruising to victory in the second. The last time these two teams met was on October 14, 2017 as the Broncos got the 31-14 road win while covering as 4-point underdogs. In all, the underdog for this matchup is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings while the Aztecs are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings, overall.
San Diego State Aztecs's Latest Performance :
San Diego State’s Ryan Agnew threw two touchdown passes in the first half to put the home team up 17-10 at the half; However, the Eagles of Eastern Michigan rallied in the second while taking a 20-17 lead after a Chad Ryland field goal with 3:18 left in the game. John Barron, however, tied the game for the Aztecs with 1:16 left to play on a 50-yard field goal which ultimately caused overtime where Barron sealed the victory for the Aztecs with a 38 yarder. For the game, Agnew threw for 176 yards along with two touchdowns and a pick while the Aztec rushing attack collected 174 yards on the ground for a 4.7 per carry average with Chase Jasmin having 94 yards on 16 carries. The defense for SDSU collected two turnovers in the win while holding the Eagles to a 3.1 per carry average in their rushing attack. On the other hand, the offense had 236 yards in the air on an Aztec pass defense that allows 273 yards per game to its opponents.
Boise State Broncos's Latest Performance :
Boise State had two rushing touchdowns in the first half versus the Cowboys last weekend while Brett Rypien threw a 21-yard pass to A.J. Richardson to take a commanding lead at the half. And despite being outscored 14-10 in the second half, the Broncos were able to come out with the conference victory victory. Rypien ended with 342 yards total along with two touchdown passes as the Broncos averaged eight yards per pass play while the rushing attack collected 161 yards on the day as Alexander Mattison had 57 yards on the ground with a rushing TD in the victory. The Broncos held the ball for over 40 minutes in the contest while converting eleven of twenty third down conversions while its 26th ranked defense in yards allowed limited the Cowboys to 295 yards total while allowing them to convert only two for 11 third down conversions.
How San Diego State Aztecs & Boise State Broncos Matchup.
Vegas Odds, Offshore Odds, & Odds ATS:
SDSU is 1-3 ATS while the O/U is 1-3
Boise State is 3-1 ATS while the O/U is 3-1
In-Depth Analysis of each team:
The Aztecs have played well versus the Broncos in the past, however, expect their 110th ranked pass defense to get picked on all night by Rypien and company as Boise State comes in with the 4th ranked passing attack in the country. Also, the Broncos are putting up 177 yards per game on the ground yet the Aztecs are only allowing 65 yards rush yards per game to their opponents thus allowing for a huge battle in the trenches. And while the Broncos rush defense is ranked in the top forty in the nation, the SDSU offense has shined in their rushing attack in averaging 198 yards per game and will certainly make the game interesting.
Against The Spread Selection: Pick: Boise State Broncos -14
My reason for the pick :
Boise State is a very efficient team on offense in racking up 539 yards per game along with averaging 43 points per outing. And while the Aztecs are only allowing 22 points per, I expect them to struggle on the road versus Rypien and his playmakers as they have averaged 50 points per game in their three wins this year. And before one thinks that Boise State is all about offense, their defense is ranked 26th in total yards allowed per game with 322 while allowing teams to average 21.2 points per outing as well. In all, I will expect the Broncos to play a solid game at home versus the Aztecs while taking advantage of their shaky defensive secondary throughout the game.
Totals Selection: Pick: Over 51.5
My reason for the prediction :
While SDSU will be looking to slow the pace of this matchup, they will find it difficult to do so as the Broncos will set the tone early by picking apart their defensive secondary, thus causing them to somewhat abandon their running game in which to keep the game within reach. Of course, the Aztec’s passing game is certainly not their strong point as they are ranked 113th in the nation with 172 yards per game average while the Broncos are ranked 42nd in pass defense, overall. Look for the over to be the play in this Mountain west showdown as the home team will maintain much of the momentum throughout. And with the over being the call in three out of Boise State’s first four games this season, expect this to be the trend once again.
Betting trends for San Diego State Aztecs:
- Under is 7-1 in Aztecs last 8 games following an ATS loss.
- Aztecs are 1-6 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Aztecs are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games on fieldturf.
Betting trends for Boise State Broncos:
- Under is 6-1 in Broncos last 7 games in October.
- Under is 5-1 in Broncos last 6 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Broncos are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.