Air Force Falcons (3-2) vs San Diego State Aztecs (3-2)Date : 10/12/2018
Time : 9:00 pm EST
Location : SDCCU Stadium, San Diego, California
Pick, Prediction, & Preview:
Air Force Falcons vs San Diego State Aztecs
The Air Force Falcons will travel to SDCCU Stadium in San Diego, California, to battle the San Diego State Aztecs on Friday night at 9 pm EST. The Falcons are coming off a 35-7 home win over the Navy Midshipmen and are bringing in huge amounts of confidence as they were able to halt a three-game skid with the all-important victory. The Aztecs are also on a high after picking up the victory over the Boise State Broncos on the road by a 19-13 score last Saturday as they dominated in the rushing attack by picking up 154 yards for the game while holding the Broncos to only 51 yards on the ground for the game. These teams last played on September 23, 2017, as the Aztecs picked up the 28-24 road win while also covering the spread as 1.5-point favorites while the over was the play with the total being set at 48.5 points for the game. The Falcons are 1-7 ATS in the last eight games versus the Aztecs while the under is 6-1 in the last seven matchups amongst these two teams, overall.
Air Force Falcons's Latest Performance :
Air Force completely shut down one of the most dangerous rushing attacks in the nation as they limited the Navy Midshipmen to only 129 yards, well below their per game average, while holding them to 49 yards passing in a game to where they were able to convert only two of 13 third down conversions. Malcom Perry threw for only 36 yards in the loss for the Midshipmen while also leading the rushing attack with 54 rushes on 19 carries. Air Force, on the other hand, was able to rack up 399 yards for the game with 257 of those being on the ground as Joseph Saucier along with Donald Hammond III combined for 22 rushes for 122 yards along with four touchdown while Hammond III also threw for 142 yards and a passing touchdown for the game. Ronald Cleveland also had a passing score in the game as he collected 72 yards on only two receptions in the victory for Air Force. Linebacker Lakota Wills missed the last game due to an undisclosed injury for the Falcons and is uncertain for this matchup on Friday.
San Diego State Aztecs's Latest Performance :
San Diego State did not have much of a chance versus the Broncos going into last Saturday’s matchup, however, they were able to hold the Broncos to a combined 229 yards for the game with Brett Rypien having only 170 yards along with two interceptions. Alexander Mattison led the rushing attack for the Broncos with 66 yards on 25 carries along with two touchdowns in the loss while the Aztecs capitalized on four turnovers along with a suddenly inefficient offense by the Broncos to get the victory. And while Ryan Agnew only threw for 113 yards for the game, the rushing attack proved to be the difference as they collected 154 yards for the game with Chase Jasmin leading the attack the 78 yards and a touchdown in the victory. In all, the Aztecs picked up the win despite having two fumbles in the game while going three for 15 on third down conversions.
How Air Force Falcons & San Diego State Aztecs Matchup.
Vegas Odds, Offshore Odds, & Odds ATS:
Air Force is 3-2 ATS while the OU is 1-4
San Diego State is 2-3 ATS while the OU is 1-4
In-Depth Analysis of each team:
Since the Falcons have gotten back on the winning rack by receiving a huge shot in the arm by beating Navy last weekend, they will now look to gain even more confidence as they face a San Diego State team that has won four straight games. Of course, the Aztecs won the last matchup amongst these teams, however, this year’s matchup will be much more even as both teams are not known for their passing games, yet, possesses strong rushing attack that they will utilize this Friday in which to gain a victory. Also, this game will be interesting in that both teams are ranked in the top 13 in stopping the run.
Against The Spread Selection: Pick: Air Force Falcons +10
My reason for the pick :
I will ride with the road team in this instance as both teams will be competing within the trenches to get their running game going in this matchup. Furthermore, it will be a continuous battle as both will also be looking to improve upon or maintain their dominance throughout the contest. With that being said, both teams have stout defenses that will certainly not back down from their opponent. It is for this reason that I will back the Falcons with the ten points as this will be a struggle from the start as points will be at a minimum. In other words, with this type of matchup, I will be difficult for me to take any team with such a large point spread.
Totals Selection: Pick: Under 45.5
My reason for the prediction :
The under has not only been the result in the last seven meetings amongst these two teams, but, has also been the play in four of the last five games for both teams recently. Combine this with the fact that both defenses are solid and ranked high in the nation in stopping the run, one could expect a very competitive and low scoring matchup on Friday night in this Mountain West showdown between two hungry squads.
Betting trends for Air Force Falcons:
- Falcons are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
- Under is 4-0 in Falcons last 4 games on grass.
- Over is 4-0 in Falcons last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Betting trends for San Diego State Aztecs:
- Under is 4-0 in Aztecs last 4 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Aztecs last 4 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Under is 10-1-1 in Aztecs last 12 games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game.