FSU Seminoles (3-2) vs Miami Hurricanes (4-1)Date : 10/06/2018
Time : 3:30 pm EST
Location : Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, Florida
Pick, Prediction, & Preview:
FSU Seminoles vs Miami Hurricanes
The Florida State Seminoles will travel to Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, Florida to take on the 17th ranked Miami Hurricanes in an ACC showdown at 3:30 pm EST. Miami picked up the 24-20 road victory on October 7, 2017 as they also covered the spread as 2.5 road favorites while the under was the play with the total being set at 45.5 points for the game. in their last outing, the Hurricanes got the 47-10 home win over the reeling North Carolina Tarheels as they outscored them 33-0 in the final three quarters to cruise to victory. The Seminoles picked up the 28-24 road win over the Louisville Cardinals after some late game heroics by QB Deondre Francois which sealed the victory for the visitors. The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings while the under is 7-0 in the last seven outings amongst these squads. Also, the Seminoles are winners ATS in five of the last six games at Hard Rock Stadium.
FSU Seminoles's Latest Performance :
The Seminoles found their momentum in the second half on the road while taking on the Cardinals last Saturday as Deondre François threw for three second half scores to lead FSU to their second straight victory. He ended the game with 294 yards along with four touchdowns while Nyqwan Murray was his favorite target in collecting 114 yards along with two TD’s. Cam Akers had 17 carries for 42 yards for a rushing attack that had only 72 yards for the game while also continuing to struggle in controlling the trenches versus opposing defenses. Louisville fumbled five times (losing one) while Jawon Pass threw two picks while ending with 306 yards versus an FSU pass defense that allows 284 yards per outing. FSU, however allowed 3 yards per carry to Louisville while allowing them to covert 10 of 19 third down attempts.
Miami Hurricanes's Latest Performance :
Miami took a 33-10 lead into the half and cruised for the remainder of their matchup versus the Tar Heels last Saturday. They pounded the struggling rush defense for UNC in racking up 229 yards for the game for a 6.7 yards per rush ratio with DeeJay Dallas leading the way with 114 yards on 11 carries along with a TD. The passing game averaged over ten yards per catch as N’Kosi Perry threw for only 125 yards along with a touchdown and an interception in the win for the Hurricanes while Mike Harley led the receiving corps with 70 yards on two catches. The Hurricanes turned the ball over twice in the game while having 14 first downs compared to 24 for the Tar Heels. The top ranked pass defense in the country allowed only 3.3 yards per catch to UNC while the 21st ranked rush defense gave up 215 yards for the game. The unit would have six turnovers on the day, however, they allowed the visitors only two for 15 conversion rate on third downs.
How FSU Seminoles & Miami Hurricanes Matchup.
Vegas Odds, Offshore Odds, & Odds ATS:
FSU is 1-4 ATS while the OU is 3-2
Miami is 3-2 ATS while the OU is 4-1
In-Depth Analysis of each team:
FSU is beginning to gain some positive momentum in getting a few wins under their belts, however, they continue to struggle in the rush game as they are averaging only 97 yards rushing per game. As sated, the passing game with Francois has been their saving grace as they average 275 yards per. The problem in this game is that the Hurricanes are ranked first in pass defense while allowing only 106 yards on the ground to their opponents. Furthermore, Miami allows only 16.8 points per game to opponents in 2018. In other words, this will not be an easy game for the Seminoles at all and may serve to reveal many more of their vulnerabilities on both sides of the ball.
Against The Spread Selection: Pick: Miami -13.5
My reason for the pick :
I will back the Hurricanes in this matchup as they have been the most consistent entering this matchup while also have a dominant defense that will certainly give the inconsistent Seminole offense fits throughout the game. It will be interesting to see how the Miami rushing attack, that is currently averaging 213 yards per game, will match up versus a Seminole rush defense that is ranked 11th in the nation in averaging 101 yards in 2018. Nonetheless, I see Miami feasting on a Noles defensive secondary that gives up 284 yards per.
Totals Selection: Pick: Under 48.5
My reason for the prediction :
Miami’s defense will step up the pressure on Francois as FSU has no running attack to speak of at this point in the season. In other words, Cam Akers and the offensive line for the Seminoles have not been consistent at all thus far. With that being said, until they are, Miami will certainly stifle this offense on Saturday while scoring just enough to cover and to provide their defense and opportunity to tee of an offense that is ranked 110th in points scored per game in FSU. Besides, rain is expected in this game, thus meaning that Miami will pound the awful run defense for the Seminoles in which to run clock along with maintain control within the trenches.
Betting trends for FSU Seminoles:
- Seminoles are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games in October.
- Seminoles are 0-4-2 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Seminoles are 0-9-2 ATS in their last 11 conference games
Betting trends for Miami Hurricanes:
- Under is 5-0 in Hurricanes last 5 games in October.
- Hurricanes are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 6-0 in Hurricanes last 6 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.