Navy Midshipmen (2-2) vs Air Force Falcons (1-3)Date : 10/06/2018
Time : 3:30 pm EST
Location : Falcons Stadium, Colorado Springs, Colorado,
Pick, Prediction, & Preview:
Navy Midshipmen vs Air Force Falcons
The Navy Midshipmen will travel to Falcon Stadium in Colorado Springs Colorado, to face the Air Force Falcons on Saturday afternoon at 3:30 pm EST as rain will be expected for this contest. The last time these two teams met was on October 7, 2017 where the Midshipmen picked up the 48-45 home win in a high scoring affair to where the Falcons covered as 7.5 road underdogs. It will be important to note that the home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings amongst these two squads. In their last outing, Navy was edged on the road by the Mustangs of Southern Methodist University by a 31-30 score as the Mustangs scored on a two point conversion in overtime to get the slim victory while the Midshipmen would halt a two-game winning streak. The Falcons also lost a close matchup at Falcon Stadium in week five to the Nevada Wolfpack by a 28-25 score as Air Force went down 21-7 at the half and despite rally in the second half that saw them outscore the Wolfpack 18-7, they were not able to regain the lead as the defeat was their third straight after winning their first outing of the 2018 campaign. The under has been the play in the last four meetings in Colorado Springs between these two teams while it has also been the result in five of the last six meetings overall.
Navy Midshipmen's Latest Performance :
Navy would also rally in the second half of their outing versus the Southern Methodist Mustangs last Saturday as they received two touchdown runs from CJ Williams and Garrett Lewis to tie the game at 23 all to end play in regulation. During the overtime period, the Midshipmen scored once again on a Lewis touchdown run, however, Ben Hicks found James Proche in the end zone for a score to where they converted the two-point conversion for the hard-fought victory. Navy racked up 349 yards rushing on the day as Williams finished with 82 yards and a TD in the win while QB Garret Lewis threw for a touchdown pass to Mychal Cooper in the loss. The Midshipmen were eight for 17 in third down conversions while holding the ball for over 37 minutes in the game; Nonetheless, they fumbled the ball three times.
Air Force Falcons's Latest Performance :
While the Falcons only had 96 yards total in their loss to Nevada last Saturday, they collected 154 yards on the ground and led by Kade Remsberg who had 71 yards on 13 carries while Donald Hammond III threw for a touchdown pass to Marcus Bennett which would put the Falcons within 11 points of Nevada late in the third period. However, with the Falcons converting on only three of 14 third down conversions while coughing up two fumbles during the contest, their fate was sealed late in the game despite their efforts to mount a comeback. The defense allowed 177 yards on the ground while allowing Ty Gangi to throw for 259 yards along with four touchdown tosses for the game. Air force has been solid on defense all season; however, teams have really been feasting on their defensive secondary as their pass defense is allowing 283 yards per game, good for 112th in the nation.
How Navy Midshipmen & Air Force Falcons Matchup.
Vegas Odds, Offshore Odds, & Odds ATS:
Navy is 1-3 ATS while the OU is 3-1
Air Force is 2-2 ATS while the OU is 1-3
In-Depth Analysis of each team:
In this game, you have the top ranked rushing attack in the nation in Navy battling the 10th ranked rush defense in Air Force taking center stage. And while the Falcons are allowing 26 points per game to their opponents this year, they must find a way to figure out this triple option attack for Navy that is averaging 36 points per game. Of course, they should be familiar with Navy’s style of play, however, the Falcons will need to play disciplined in order to come out with a win in this matchup simply to get back into he win column. Navy, on the other hand, will not do anything different for this contest as they are confident in what they do best in running the ball while winning within the trenches for four quarters.
Against The Spread Selection: Pick: Navy Midshipmen -3
My reason for the pick :
I will pick the Midshipmen and the points in this matchup as they simply continue to dominate opponents with the way in which they operate their triple option attack. Lewis and Perry have really gelled well together in the backfield for Navy and I expect them to have solid games versus the Falcons on Saturday despite Air Force performing so well versus the run in the past. In all, look for Navy to pound the ball continuously until they begin to wear down this defense for the Falcons while covering the small spread on the road.
Totals Selection: Pick: Under 48
My reason for the prediction :
The under has been the play in recent meetings amongst these two squads. Also, this is also a service academy game which means that the pregame festivitites will certainly garner up pride and focus amongst both teams. With that being said, look for this game to remain low scoring and competitive as each team will have a chance to pull out a victory. Nonetheless, the Midshipmen will take advantage of their opportunities much more than Air Force in the end.
Betting trends for Navy Midshipmen:
- Midshipmen are 0-2-2 ATS in their last 4 games in October.
- Over is 6-1 in Midshipmen last 7 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Over is 5-1 in Midshipmen last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.
Betting trends for Air Force Falcons:
- Over is 7-1 in Falcons last 8 games in October.
- Under is 5-1 in Falcons last 6 games on grass.
- Under is 4-1 in Falcons last 5 home games.