Army Black Knights (3-2) vs San Jose State Spartans (0-5)Date : 10/13/2018
Time : 3:30 pm EST
Location : CEFCU Stadium, San Jose, California
Pick, Prediction, & Preview:
Army Black Knights vs San Jose State Spartans
The first ever meeting versus the Army Black Knights and the San Jose Spartans will take place at CEFCU Stadium in San Jose, California, on Saturday afternoon at 3:30 pm EST. The Black Knights are coming off a 42-13 blowout win on the road versus the Bulls of Buffalo to where they rushed for more yards (281) than their opponents collected for the game (255). On the other hand, the San Jose Spartans remained winless on the year as they went down 28-0 at the half to Colorado State and despite scoring a whopping 30 points in the third period, were unable to gain control of the lead, thus suffering the loss. In their three home games this season, the Spartans have allowed at least 40 points to their opponents this year.
Army Black Knights's Latest Performance :
The Spartans could get nothing going until early in the third when quarterback Josh Love found Trey Hartley, who led the receiving corps with 94 yards along with two touchdowns, for a 24-yard touchdown pass for their first score of the game. Love ended the day with 232 yards in the contest with three touchdowns and two interceptions as the passing attack had 5.5 yards per catch. In fact, Love found Thai Cottrell for a one-yard pass with :28 seconds left in the third quarter to tie the game at 28 all while the Spartans took the lead soon after on a safety after a safety. Nonetheless, Izzy Matthews scored for the Rams of Colorado State while Love was picked off by Rasha Ajayi who returned the pick for 55 yards and a score to seal the victory for the road team. Aside from the turnovers, the Spartans held the ball for only 25:47 minutes in the game while converting only four of 17 third down conversions and had a 1.4 yards per rush average for the game. Their defense allowed 4.9 yards per rush to the Rams while also having two turnovers in the game while falling below their average of 488 yards per game in allowing only 391 yards to the Rams. Unfortunately, running back Tyler Nevins (day to day, head) is uncertainly for this game while Bailey Gaither (day to day, ankle) has been considered a no go for Saturday’s contest.
San Jose State Spartans's Latest Performance :
The Black Knights dominated their game versus Buffalo throughout as Kelvin Hopkins Jr rushed for 89 yards on 19 carries while throwing for 91 yards and a touchdown pass to Jordan Asbury for a 25-yard pass to put his team up 28-13 late in the third period. As stated, Army also dominated in time of possession with 37:34 minutes for the game while converting on 64% of their third down attempts while their defense allowed the Bulls to convert only two of eleven third down conversions. The Black nights 34th ranked rush defense allowed 103 yards on the ground for a 3.3 yards per carry average while its pass defense, that allows 229 yards in the air to their opponents, only allowed 152 yards versus Buffalo. They look to have success with a limited offense in the Spartans this week as San Jose State will likely be without critical playmakers for week seven.
How Army Black Knights & San Jose State Spartans Matchup.
Vegas Odds, Offshore Odds, & Odds ATS:
Army is 3-1-1 ARS while the O/U is 2-3
San Jose is 2-3 ATS while the O/U is 3-2
In-Depth Analysis of each team:
After a potentially deflating loss to Air Force two weeks ago, Army rebounded nicely in whipping the Bulls on the road last week. They now seek to add to their momentum versus a reeling San Jose State team that, despite their 30-point burst in the third period in their last outing, are not very good on either side of the ball. Because they struggle stopping the run, Army should have a nice day in the rushing department. On the other hand, with key injuries to their offense, they may not be able to take advantage of Army’s defensive secondary that is prone to giving up yards in the passing game.
Against The Spread Selection: Pick: Army Black Knights -15
My reason for the pick :
Even with Nevins and Gaither possibly not playing in this matchup, I will back the Black Knights to win this game in dominant fashion on Saturday. Of course, the Spartans are ranked in the top 60 in stopping the run, however, they are allowing 488 yards per game to their opponents which means that they are prone to give up entirely too many yards to their opponents on a weekly basis. With that being the case, Army will utilize its running game to cruise on Saturday versus a Spartans team that is not very good this year while also dealing with pivotal injuries that will ultimately keep them winless for yet another week.
Totals Selection: Pick: Over 54
My reason for the prediction :
The over has been the play in two of the last three road games for Army, which will have the bulk of the momentum coming into this matchup, while being the play in the last three home games for the Spartans. It is for this reason, along with Army averaging over 30 points in their last three wins, that I will ride with the over in the contest. I also see the home team putting some points on the board, however, with Nevins and Gaither possibly out of the lineup, I will not look for them to score much, overall. However, as stated, the Black Knights have been so dominant, I will expect them to run roughshod over a Spartan team that cannot stop anyone either in the pass or run.
Betting trends for Army Black Knights:
- Black Knights are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
- Over is 4-0 in Black Knights last 4 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Over is 5-1 in Black Knights last 6 games in October.
Betting trends for San Jose State Spartans:
- Over is 5-1 in Spartans last 6 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Spartans are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games.
- Over is 14-3 in Spartans last 17 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.