Michigan State Spartans (3-2) vs Penn State Nittany Lions (4-1)Date : 10/13/2018
Time : 3:30 pm EST
Location : Beaver stadium, University Park, Pennsylvania
Pick, Prediction, & Preview:
Michigan State Spartans vs Penn State Nittany Lions
The Spartans of Michigan State will travel to Beaver stadium in University Park, Pennsylvania, to meet the 8th ranked Penn State Nittany Lions on Saturday at 3:30 pm EST in a Big Ten conference battle. The Spartans are coming off a 29-19 home loss versus the northwestern Wildcats last Saturday as Clayton Thorson would torch the defensive secondary for Michigan State en route to a huge conference victory. On the other hand, the Nittany Lions fell in a heartbreaker at home to the Ohio State Buckeyes by a 27-26 score as the Buckeyes scored on a 24-yard pass from Dwayne Haskins to K.J. Hill to regain the lead for OSU along with seal the victory with yet another touchdown pass from Haskins with only 2:03 minutes remaining in the game. These two teams last met on November 4, 2017 as the Spartans took the 27-24 win as they covered as 9.5-point favorites while the over was the play with the total being set at 47.5 points for the game. The over is 4-0 in the last four meetings amongst these squads while the favorite is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings, overall. Finally, the Spartans are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings versus the Penn State Nittany Lions.
Michigan State Spartans's Latest Performance :
Michigan State found themselves in a battle versus the Wildcats last weekend yet would regain the lead 19-14 late in the third period due to a Brian Lewerke pass to Felton Davis III. Nonetheless, Clayton Thorson, who has struggled early in the year, took over and threw a touchdown pass along with scoring on a two-yard rushing TD as the Wildcats stunned the Spartans at home. Lewerke finished with 329 yards, a TD, along with a pick in the loss while the rushing attack put in 96 yards with Davis having 50 yards on the day while also having 96 yards on seven catches and a score to lead the passing game. The rush defense, currently ranked first in the nation, was solid as usual in allowing just 8 yards for the game yet their pass defense struggled once again in allowing Thorson to throw for 373 yards in the contest with three TD’s along with two interceptions. To no surprise, look for Penn State and McSorley to exploit this weakness on Saturday as the Lions seek to recover from their loss. Also, with defensive lineman Antonio Sheldon (Suspension), Ellis Jordan (knee), and Shane Simmons (lower body) all being questionable for this game along with cornerback Donavan Johnson (shoulder) possibly being out with a shoulder injury, PSU may struggle in this matchup versus the MSU rushing attack that is ranked 13th in the country with 261 yards rushing per game.
Penn State Nittany Lions's Latest Performance :
While it looked as if Penn State would be the victor in their last outing versus the Ohio State Buckeyes with 8:00 minutes remaining in the game, the Buckeyes pulled magic in the waning minutes with Dwayne Haskins throwing two touchdown passes to take the lead with only two minutes remaining as the Lions lost their first game of the season to their Big Ten foe. Unfortunately, the Nittany Lions outplayed OSU in every way as they collected 492 total yards compared to 389 yards for the Buckeyes while racking up 206 yards on the ground alongside only 119 yards for OSU. Trace McSorley was a bright spot for the Nittany Lions and he threw for 286 yards on two touchdowns while also rushing for 175 yards in the loss. On the other hand, Haskins finished with 270 yards along with three TD’s and an interception. Finally, KJ Hamler led the receiving corps for PSU with 138 yards and one touchdown catch that put the Lions up 13-0 early in the game. After such a deflating loss at home, the Nittany Lions will look to recover versus the Spartans that have been obtaining confidence lately and will certainly look to pull the upset on Saturday, despite their setback versus Northwestern that knocked them out of the top 25. Hamler may not suit up for this matchup for the Lions due to injury and will be a game time decision.
How Michigan State Spartans & Penn State Nittany Lions Matchup.
Vegas Odds, Offshore Odds, & Odds ATS:
Michigan State is 1-4 ATs while the OU is 4-1
Penn State is 4-1 ATS while the OU is 4-1
In-Depth Analysis of each team:
This will be a competitive matchup amongst two teams looking to get back on track after two bad losses in week five of the college football season. In all, expect both Lewerke and McSorley to have solid outings in this matchup while both teams will look towards their running game to set the tone of the contest early. This could possibly turn into an offensive game with MSU playing skaky in the back-end of their defense while the Nittany Lions are inconsistent in this area as well. In all, look to both teams to go at each other hard in a back and forth affair that will certainly be exciting.
Against The Spread Selection: Pick: Penn State Nittany Lions -13.5
My reason for the pick :
The Nittany Lions are certainly dealing with their fair share of injuries along their defensive front along with their defensive secondary, however, I expect their offense to step up versus the Spartans this Saturday and get the win. of course, with the Spartan struggling in defending the pass, look for McSorley and the offense to step up even more for their defense on their way to covering the spread versus Michigan State in what should be a high-scoring contest overall. The Nittany Lions have covered in two of three home games this year.
Totals Selection: Pick: Over 54
My reason for the prediction :
The over has been the play in the last meeting versus these two teams while also being the result in eight of the last ten games for these two teams combined. I certainly expect this to be the case in this matchup as both teams will be looking to not only establish their running games, but, also their passing games will be on full display as well, particularly from Penn State. With both teams looking to atone from heartbreaking losses, look for each to pull out the stops in this contest to ensure a victory.
Betting trends for Michigan State Spartans:
- Spartans are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games on grass.
- Over is 6-1 in Spartans last 7 games overall.
- Over is 6-1 in Spartans last 7 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Betting trends for Penn State Nittany Lions:
- Nittany Lions are 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 games in October.
- Nittany Lions are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Nittany Lions are 14-1-1 ATS in their last 16 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.