Georgia State Panthers (2-4) vs Arkansas State Red Wolves (3-3)Date : 10/18/2018
Time : 7:30 pm EST
Location : Centennial Bank Stadium, Jonesboro, Arkansas
Pick, Prediction, & Preview:
Georgia State Panthers vs Arkansas State Red Wolves
A Sun Belt matchup versus the Georgia State Panthers and the Arkansas State Red Wolves will take place at Centennial Bank Stadium in Jonesboro, Arkansas, on Thursday night at 7:30 pm EST. Both teams are coming off bye weeks after blowout losses as the Panthers dropped a contest on the road to the Troy Trojans in October 4th by a 37-20 score to where they went down 23-3 at the half and could not recover as they have lost three of their last four games, overall. The Red Wolves were destroyed by the Appalachian State Mountaineers by a 35-9 score at home as their defense was hammered on the ground by the visitors in allowing 246 yards rushing en route to their second straight loss. The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four games amongst these two squads while the last meeting saw the Red Wolves pick up a 31-16 road win over the Panthers on November 3, 2016.
Georgia State Panthers's Latest Performance :
The Panthers have certainly struggled this season as they have lost four of their last five games after winning their first matchup of the season at home over the Kennesaw State Owls at home by a 24-20 score in week one. In each of their last four losses, they were outscored by an average of 27 points while the offense put up only sixteen points per game during this time. Dan Ellington leads the team in passing with 1224 yards along with five touchdown passes and two interceptions for a 63% passer rating while also leading the team in rushing yards with 270 yards total for the season. Receiver Penny Hart leads the corps with 395 yards along with two touchdown catches for a 13.2 yards per catch average for an offense that ranks 80th in the nation with 217 yards per game. Their defense, as one can see, is atrocious in ranking 94th and 124th respectively in pass/rush defense in giving up 247 and 244 yards per game. Their pass defense may be even worse for this matchup versus a pass-oriented offense in Arkansas State as cornerback Jerome Smith is questionable with an undisclosed injury and uncertain to suit up.
Arkansas State Red Wolves's Latest Performance :
Quarterback Justice Hansen leads the Red Wolves in passing with 1538 yards along with 11 touchdown passes on the season in addition to five picks for a 64.4 completion percentage for a passing attack that is ranked 23rd in the nation with 283 yards per game. The rushing attack averages 168 yards per game and is led by Marcell Murray with 298 yards along with 91 yards receiving for a total of three touchdowns on the season while the top receiver is Kirk Merritt, who is averaging 8.2 yards per catch while racking up 311 yards in 2018. And while the Red Wolves are ranked high in pass defense in only allowing 147 yards in the air to their opponents per game, their rush defense stinks in giving up 245 yards per game as the defense also allows 30 points per game. With that being the case, Georgia State, who currently averages 22 points per game, will certainly have a chance to improve upon their dismal running game that puts up only 147 yards per game this year against Arkansas State.
How Georgia State Panthers & Arkansas State Red Wolves Matchup.
Vegas Odds, Offshore Odds, & Odds ATS:
Georgia State is 2-3-1 ATS while the OU is 3-3
Arkansas State is 1-5 ATS while the OU is 2-4
In-Depth Analysis of each team:
Both teams could certainly use a win on Thursday, however, the edge certainly goes to the Red Wolves in this instance as they possess a much more reliable offense along with a defense that is stout in the back end. Georgia State, on the other hand, will certainly look to rely on their rushing attack in this contest as this has been a huge liability for the Red Wolves defense this season, thus potentially making this game an exciting one. Of course, with both teams ranking in the bottom of the east and west rankings of the Sun Belt, a win could put them back into the mix, particularly Arkansas State, as Louisiana Lafayette, Louisiana Monroe, and South Alabama are all 1-2 in the division currently.
Against The Spread Selection: Pick: Arkansas State Red Wolves
My reason for the pick :
I will back the Red Wolves in this matchup at home versus a struggling team in Georgia State. While I see the road team putting some points on the board, the defense for the Panthers have not played well all year long as the Red Wolves will once again exploit them in their pass defense en route to a win on Thursday night. In all, expect Hanson and company to have a solid night both in the pass and rush as the Red Wolves will get back into the win column.
Totals Selection: Pick: Over
My reason for the prediction :
With both teams allowing around or over 400 yards per game to their opponents along with giving up over 30 points per game this year, I will back the over in this contest as they simply have not shown that they can stop the other team from moving the chains. The over has been the result in two of the last three road games for the Panthers mainly due to their inability to stop the opposing teams rushing attack. Furthermore, as stated, look for the Red Wolves’ stellar passing attack to work on the Panthers’ defensive secondary as they may be without their starting cornerback for this game. In all, the over will indeed be the strong play in this matchup on Thursday night.
Betting trends for Georgia State Panthers:
- Panthers are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
- Panthers are 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 games in October.
- Under is 6-1 in Panthers last 7 games following a straight up loss.
Betting trends for Arkansas State Red Wolves:
- Under is 4-0 in Red Wolves last 4 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points.
- Red Wolves are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games.
- Red Wolves are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Thursday games.