Air Force Falcons (2-4) vs UNLV Runnin Rebels (2-4)Date : 10/19/2018
Time : 10:00 pm EST
Location : Sam Boyd Stadium, Las Vegas, Nevada
Pick, Prediction, & Preview:
Air Force Falcons vs UNLV Runnin Rebels
The Falcons of Air Force will travel to Sam Boyd Stadium in Las Vegas, Nevada, to face the UNLV Runnin’ Rebels on Friday night beginning at 10 pm EST for an all-important Mountain West showdown. Both teams currently find themselves winless in the conference as the Falcons lost a heartbreaker on the road last Friday versus the San Diego State Aztecs by a 21-17 score as it was a defensive battle throughout with both teams putting up less than 300 total yards for the contest. The Rebels lost on the road to the Utah Sate Aggies by a 59-28 score last Saturday as they went in at the half down by a 42-7 score after scoring the first points of the game to make it 7-0. From there, the Aggies scored 42 unanswered points in the first half to take a lead to which they never relinquished. The last time these teams met was on October 14, 2017 as the Falcons picked up the 34-30 home win as UNLV covered as nine-point road underdogs. The over has not only been the play in eight of the last ten games amongst these squads, but, also in four of the last five games in Las Vegas. The Falcons are 1-4 ATS in the last five game in Las Vegas.
Air Force Falcons's Latest Performance :
In a tight game throughout, the Aztecs scored on a Parker Houston 29-yard touchdown pass from Ryan Agnew for the winning score while sending the Falcons to their fourth loss in five games. The 13th ranked rushing attack for Air Force picked up 214 yards on the day with Cole Fagan leading the way with 90 yards on 16 rushes. Again, the game was a defensive matchup as both teams struggled to pick up yardage throughout the game. And while Donald Hammond III is day to day with an undisclosed injury and is uncertain to play in this matchup for Air Force, the Falcons will be certain to perform some damage on the 111th ranked rush defense for UNLV that allows 208 yards per game.
UNLV Runnin Rebels's Latest Performance :
UNLV laid yet another egg last weekend as they fell hard to the high-scoring Utah State Aggies last Saturday as they have allowed their opponents to score at least fifty points in their last two outings while their offense only putting up 42 points during this time. Their 111th ranked defense allowed 221 yards to the Aggies while their 97th ranked pass defense allowing 12.2 yards per catch to the home team as Josh Love passed for 322 yards along with five TD’s in the game. Max Gillem, on the other hand, threw for 250 yards along with three touchdown passes along with an interception while Tyleek Collins led the receiving corps with 139 yards and a TD. UNLV’s rushing attack obtained 154 yards on the ground, 100 yards below their per game average for the year, with Lexington Thomas leading the way with 51 yards and a score in the loss. The Rebels may experience much less success on the ground this weekend as Air Force allows only 101 yards per game, good for eighth in the nation.
How Air Force Falcons & UNLV Runnin Rebels Matchup.
Vegas Odds, Offshore Odds, & Odds ATS:
Air Force is 2-4 ATS while the OU is 1-5
UNLV is 3-3 ATS while the OU is 4-2
In-Depth Analysis of each team:
Both these teams are desperate for a win in that they are currently winless in the Mountain West thus far in the season. The Falcons certainly has the more reliable offense as they possess a powerful triple option attack that has run roughshod over opponents this season, yet with Hammond III uncertain for this matchup, they may have to instill a new QB into the system in Isiah Sanders who passed for 51 yards in the loss last Saturday while rushing for 49 yards on 15 carries. The Rebels have not played well on either side of the ball lately, or, for the season for that matter, however, possesses a powerful rushing game as well that is putting up 257 yards per game. It will be interesting to see how they matchup up with a solid run defense in Air Force that is ranked in the top ten in stopping the run.
Against The Spread Selection: Pick: Air Force Falcons
My reason for the pick :
Air Force will get back on the winning track in this matchup as the Rebels have had their fair share of troubles stopping the run throughout the year. In fact, they are allowing 37 points to their opponents this year and will certainly have problems solving the triple option attack for the Falcons on Friday night. In other words, this will be a tight matchup, however, look for Air Force to exert their dominance in the trenches early and often versus a UNLV team that lacks the physicality to compete versus an offense on the level of Air Force.
Totals Selection: Pick: Under
My reason for the prediction :
With Air Force possibly being without their top signal caller along with their defense playing well in allowing only 22 points per game in addition to the Runnin’ Rebels only averaging 21 points in their last two outings, I will pick the under as the strong play in this contest. Also, aside from their contests versus Prairie View A&M and UTEP, the Runnin’ Rebels have really stunk it up on offense. Expect this to be the case with Air Force coming to town as the defense will certainly step up to assist their offense that will definitely struggle if Hammond III is not in the lineup despite his backup performing decent last weekend.
Betting trends for Air Force Falcons:
- Falcons are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
- Over is 5-0 in Falcons last 5 games on fieldturf.
- Over is 4-0 in Falcons last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Betting trends for UNLV Runnin Rebels:
- Over is 4-0 in Rebels last 4 Friday games.
- Rebels are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Rebels are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS loss.