Auburn Tigers (4-3) vs Ole Miss Rebels (5-2)Date : 10/20/2018
Time : 12:00 pm EST
Location : Vaught-Hemingway Field, Oxford, Mississippi
Pick, Prediction, & Preview:
Auburn Tigers vs Ole Miss Rebels
The Auburn Tigers will travel to Vaught-Hemingway Field in Oxford, Mississippi, for an SEC west showdown versus the Ole Miss Rebels on Saturday at noon. The Tigers are coming off a 30-24 home loss to the Tennessee Vols last Saturday as they were outscored 17-7 after going up at the half by four en route to their 2nd straight loss. The Rebels won their second straight game as they rallied in the second half versus a reeling Arkansas Razorback team on the road in picking up a 37-33 win. The last time these teams met was on October 7, 2017 as the Tigers picked up a 44-23 home win while the spread was a push as the Tigers were 21-point favorites. The Tigers are 4-0-1 ATS in the last five meetings versus the Rebels while the over is not only 4-0 in the last four meetings in Oxford, but, is 7-2 in the last nine games, overall, amongst these two teams.
Auburn Tigers's Latest Performance :
Auburn continued their inconsistent offensive play versus the Vols at home last Saturday as they only scored seven points in the second half thanks to a Jarrett Stidham touchdown pass with only :37 second remaining in the game to make the score 30-24. Stidham ended the game with 322 yards passing along with two TD’s and two picks in the game while the offense also lost a fumble which was returned eight yards by Alontae Taylor to put the Vols up 27-17 late in the third period. The rushing attack averaged 3.7 yards per carry as JaTarvious whitlow had 42 yards on 12 carries as the Tigers collected 126 yards total on the ground. In all, the Auburn offense is averaging a tad over 16 points per game in their last two outings while they are 1-5 ATS in their last six games, overall.
Ole Miss Rebels's Latest Performance :
The Rebels erased a 30-17 lead for the Razorbacks in the second half thanks to two field goals by Conner Limpert along with two Jordan Ta’amu touchdown passes in the game while Scottie Phillips sealed the victory for the Rebels with a five yard run with only :42 seconds remaining in the game as they were able to successfully rally to get their second straight win. The rushing game for Ole Miss was led by Ta’amu with 141 yards and a score while the QB also threw for 387 yards, two TD’s and an interception in the win. Octavius Cooley along with DaMarkus Lodge combined for 12 catches for 165 yards receiving and two scores for an offense that racked up 611 yards total on the Arkansas defense. And while the rush defense for the Rebels were terrible in defending the run in allowing 299 yards with Rakeem Boyd having 109 yards with a score, they limited the passing game for the Razorbacks to only 177 yards while the home team was held to two for nine third down conversions for the game.
How Auburn Tigers & Ole Miss Rebels Matchup.
Vegas Odds, Offshore Odds, & Odds ATS:
Auburn is 2-5 ATS while the OU is 2-5
Ole Miss is 3-4 ATS while the OU is 5-2
In-Depth Analysis of each team:
Auburn will hit the road once again where they have not played well this season in which to stop the current bleeding that they are experiencing to battle an Ole Miss squad that is brimming with confidence after winning two straight with their last victory coming as a result of a late rally against Arkansas. Despite their offensive issues, the Tigers must be licking their chops in facing Ole Miss this weekend as the Rebels have struggled on the defensive end in 2018 as they rank in the 100’s in every major defensive category, most notably points allowed (35) along with total yards per game (498). Auburn should also be able to get their running and passing games back on track as the Rebels allow teams 209 yards and 289 yards, respectively per contest. Nonetheless, Ole Miss’s offense is indeed dangerous as they possess the 4th ranked passing attack in the country in averaging 353 yards per game while they average 42 points per game. They will find a challenge versus the Tigers pass defense that allows 208 yards in the air along with ranking 33rd in the nation in rush defense with 126 yards total.
Against The Spread Selection: Pick: Ole Miss Rebels +3.5
My reason for the pick :
While I will give the nod to Auburn to right the ship in this matchup to pick up a much-needed victory, expect the Rebels to also keep this game tight at home due to their ability to utilize their playmakers on offense throughout the game. As stated, while the Rebels will indeed allow some points to Auburn as their defense has proven itself to be horrible, they will keep the game interesting in that their passing offense can certainly move the chains. And while the Auburn defense has carried its weight during the past few games, look for them to have some issues while looking to contain a dangerous passing attack for the Rebels this weekend as I will back the home team to cover.
Totals Selection: Pick: Over 62.5
My reason for the prediction :
While the under has been the norm for a struggling offensive team for Auburn, the over has been the play for Ole Miss as their defense has continuously allowed offenses to pick up huge chunks of yardage in 2018. With that being said, look for the over to be the result in this matchup as I have no faith that the defense for Ole Miss can prevent even an inconsistent Auburn offense from obtaining confidence offensively in this matchup. In what will likely be a back and forth game, look for this to be a high scoring affair to where the score will balloon, thus causing the total to be surpassed at some point.
Betting trends for Auburn Tigers:
- Auburn Tigers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Tigers are 0-6 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Betting trends for Ole Miss Rebels:
- Over is 7-0-1 in Rebels last 8 games in October.
- Over is 12-3 in Rebels last 15 home games.
- Rebels are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.