Houston Cougars (5-1) vs Navy Midshipmen (2-4)Date : 10/20/2018
Time : 3:30 pm EST
Location : Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium, Annapolis, Maryland
Pick, Prediction, & Preview:
Houston Cougars vs Navy Midshipmen
The Houston Cougars will square off against the Navy Midshipmen on Saturday afternoon at 3:30 pm EST at the Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium in Annapolis, Maryland. In their last outing, the Midshipmen suffered the 24-17 home loss to the Temple Owls last Saturday as the Owls scored on a 62-yard pass early in the fourth quarter to break a 17-17 tie in which to seal the victory. The Houston Cougars, on the other hand, had their way with the East Carolina Pirates in their last outing as they picked up the 42-20 road win as the Cougar defense capitalized on four turnovers while D’Eriq King threw for two touchdown passes in the win. Houston has covered the spread in two of the last three matchups versus Navy while the over was the result in two of the last three games, overall. Houston picked up the road win over the Midshipmen last year by a 24-14 score as D’Eriq King threw for 277 yards along with a touchdown pass while they shut out Navy 17-0 in the second half.
Houston Cougars's Latest Performance :
The Houston Cougars won their third straight game while covering the 16-point spread in their last outing versus the Pirates of East Carolina as D’Eriq King and company had two passing touchdowns in the first half while he also scored on an eight-yard rushing touchdowns to put the road team up 21-3 at the break. For the game, King passed for only 209 yards and two scores as Courtney Lark led the corps with three catches for 79 yards and a TD catch; However, the rushing attack racked up 170 yards with Patrick Carr having 70 yards on 13 carries for the day. The Cougar defense collected four turnovers for the day and won the game handily despite having 115 yards in penalties.
Navy Midshipmen's Latest Performance :
Navy fell well below its rushing average against the Temple Owls as they were only able to garner 270 yards total for a 5.1 yards per carry average while converting only five for 13 on third down conversions. Nelson Smith led the rushing attack with 108 yards and a score on 18 carries while QB Garrett Lewis had 56 yards on 12 carries along with a score in the loss. And while their defense held the Owls to only 109 yards rushing, the unit allowed Anthony Russo to throw for 300 yards along with a TD in the loss. In fact, the loss was Navy’s third straight as they have not covered the spread in four straight outings, overall. They now look to contain an offense that is more than capable of neutralizing their triple option attack in the Houston Cougars, who rank 20th in the league in rushing yards allowed with 116 per game.
How Houston Cougars & Navy Midshipmen Matchup.
Vegas Odds, Offshore Odds, & Odds ATS:
Houston is 3-3 ATS while the OU is 3-3
Navy is 1-5 ATS while the OU is 3-3
In-Depth Analysis of each team:
The Cougars will certainly have its hands full in attempting to solve the triple option attack for Navy this weekend, however, they are ranked 20th in stopping the run for the season and certainly have the talent in which to neutralize a Navy offense that has really slowed down lately. Nonetheless, look for the Midshipmen to bring the focus and intensity this weekend as they do not want to fall to 1-3 in the division. On the other hand, the Cougars are a tough team to beat as they rank in the top 20 in both passes and rushing offense. Furthermore, they are ranked 3rd in the nation in averaging 49 points per game.
Against The Spread Selection: Pick: Houston Cougars -12.5
My reason for the pick :
We all know how potent the Navy rushing attack can be once they are clicking on all cylinders, however, the Midshipmen are losers of their lasts three, as stated, and are not maintaining their focus and dominance at the line of scrimmage, thus taking away from the effectiveness of their rushing attack. With that being said, I will back the Cougars to get the huge road win over a team that will certainly be scratching and clawing for a win. The problem is that Navy is ranked 71st and 77th in stopping the pass and run, which highly favors Houston in this contest. Add to this that the Midshipmen are also allowing teams to average 32 points per game, the writing may already be on the wall for the Cougars to get the win along with cover the spread.
Totals Selection: Pick: Under 60.5
My reason for the prediction :
While Houston will indeed cover in this game, look for the under to be the play as I see the Midshipmen attempting to slow this game down as much as possible to get back to basics in running their triple option offense. And while Houston will make the most out of their possessions, look for the home team to continuously pound the ball, thus eating tons of clock while attempting to try to work out its offensive kinks. In all, the total will not surpass 60 points, however, the Cougars will leave Annapolis with a hard-fought victory.
Betting trends for Houston Cougars:
- Cougars are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
- Cougars are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS win.
- Under is 4-0 in Cougars last 4 conference games.
Betting trends for Navy Midshipmen:
- Under is 4-0 in Midshipmen last 4 games in October.
- Midshipmen are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Midshipmen are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game