Memphis Tigers (4-3) vs Missouri Tigers (3-3)Date : 10/20/2018
Time : 4:00 pm EST
Location : Faurot Field at Memorial Stadium, Columbia, Missouri
Pick, Prediction, & Preview:
Memphis Tigers vs Missouri Tigers
The Memphis Tigers will travel to Faurot Field at Memorial Stadium in Columbia, Missouri, to take on the Missouri Tigers on Saturday afternoon at 4 pm EST. Memphis suffered a deflating loss versus the Knights of Central Florida last Saturday as they relinquished a 30-17-point halftime lead and were shut out 14-0 in the second half en route to the 31-30 loss, their second in three games. Missouri lost to the top ranked team in the country in the Alabama Crimson Tide on the road in an SEC matchup last Saturday by a 39-10 score as they only collected 212 yards total for the game while giving up 564 yards to the Tide along with 184 yards on the ground in what was their third straight loss. The last time these teams met was on October 2, 1999 as Missouri pulled out the 27-17 road win as they covered as two point favorites.
Memphis Tigers's Latest Performance :
Memphis, despite having two fumbles for the game, dominated the Knights of Central Florida in their last matchup at home due mainly to 281 rushing yards for the game led by Darrell Henderson with 199 yards and a touchdown. Brady White threw for 209 yards in the matchup as the passing game averaged 7.2 yards per catch. The 9th ranked Knights played an ugly game on both sides as their offense went only two for 12 on third downs while the team collected 102 yards in penalties. While Memphis has averaged 40 points per game in their last four outings, they have allowed teams to score 30 or more points in three of those games. They are now 1-3 in the AAC west and currently occupying the fifth place slot with four conference games remaining against SMU and Houston, the first and second place teams within the division. Unfortunately, they have losses to the 3rd and 4th place teams in the division in Tulane and Navy which makes a win over SMU and Houston much more meaningful.
Missouri Tigers's Latest Performance :
While Missouri played well in the first quarter of their matchup versus the Crimson Tide, they fell back into mediocrity as the Tide shut down their offense for the remaining three quarters on their way to the victory. Missouri, on the other hand, has dropped three straight games after beginning the season at 3-0. Drew Lock would once again play shaky for the Tigers as he threw for 142 yards, a TD, along with two picks in the game while Missouri had three turnovers for the day versus a Tide defense that allowed them only a tad over 200 yards total. After winning their first three games by an average of 12 points, Missouri has dropped their last three by an average of 15 points per loss. They are also winless in the SEC west division and while Memphis is certainly not a conference opponent, they could provide Missouri some much needed confidence before the Tigers battle a tough Kentucky Wildcats squad next weekend as they resume their SEC schedule at home. The bad news for the Tiger’s offense, which is averaging just 24 points per game in their last few outings, is that they could be without the leader of their receiving corps in Emmanuel Hall (430 yards, 3 TD’s) who is suffering a groin injury and uncertain to play.
How Memphis Tigers & Missouri Tigers Matchup.
Vegas Odds, Offshore Odds, & Odds ATS:
Memphis is 4-3 ATS while the OU is 3-4
Missouri is 3-3 ATS while the OU is 4-1-1
In-Depth Analysis of each team:
Lock has been a huge disappointment this year for Missouri as his decision making under center has been awful. Of course, Missouri was not supposed to pose any type of threat to an Alabama squad, however, the Tigers were fresh off a road loss to a lowly Gamecocks team that were 1-3 in the SEC east a week prior. With that being the case, I happen to believe Missouri will have a bit of mental fatigue in returning home from a disastrous road trip with Memphis possibly being the beneficiary after their heartbreaking loss to UCF last Saturday. In all, expect the road team, that enters with much confidence after hanging around versus a very good Knights team, to jump out on Missouri early to further play on their fragile psyche in which to obtain a lead. On the other hand, Missouri must rely less on Lock in this contest while allowing the offensive line and their rushing attack to somehow find some daylight versus a Memphis team that has been stout in this area.
Against The Spread Selection: Pick: Memphis Tigers +9
My reason for the pick :
With Hall possibly being a no go in this contest in addition to Lock simply not playing well at all lately, I will back the Memphis Tigers in this contest to cover the spread. And while QB White for Memphis has not been overly outstanding, he has been solid in maintaining the 41st ranked Memphis passing attack that puts up 264 yards per game. Memphis’ rushing attack is solid as well in averaging 275 yards per game to which Missouri will certainly have problems in stopping as they may be 24th in the country in giving up 102 yards per game, but, they were hammered last weekend by the Crimson Tide on the ground. In all, there are many positives for Memphis in this matchup which allows me to think that the Tigers will have a great day on the road versus a struggling Missouri squad.
Totals Selection: Pick: Under 74
My reason for the prediction :
I will back the under in this contest as I believe that Memphis, who will certainly come in with confidence after hanging tough with a top ten team in UCF last Saturday, has the better defense as they are ranked in the top 50 in total yards allowed per game along with pass yards allowed per game with 193. On the other hand, Missouri regularly exceeded the 40-point mark in their first three games of the season, however, has only scored over 30 points once in their last three outings may indeed struggle once again in this matchup versus a tough Memphis defense. Again, with Lock struggling along with the Missouri defense looking to have a much better day than they have had recently, look for the under to be the strongest play.
Betting trends for Memphis Tigers:
- Tigers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games in October.
- Over is 9-1 in Tigers last 10 non-conference games.
- Over is 8-1 in Tigers last 9 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Betting trends for Missouri Tigers:
- Over is 4-0 in Tigers last 4 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Tigers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Tigers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game.