Michigan Wolverines (6-1) vs Michigan State Spartans (4-2)Date : 10/20/2018
Time : 12:00 pm EST
Location : Spartan Stadium, East Lansing, Michigan
Pick, Prediction, & Preview:
Michigan Wolverines vs Michigan State Spartans
The 13th ranked Michigan Wolverines will travel to Spartan Stadium in East Lansing, Michigan, for a Big Ten battle versus their rival the Michigan State Spartans on Saturday at 12 pm EST. The Wolverines were stellar versus the Wisconsin Badgers at home last Saturday as they picked up the 38-13 win as the rushing attack took center stage in putting up 320 yards for the game. The Spartans also picked up a huge win on the road against the suddenly reeling Penn State Nittany Lions last weekend despite giving up 6.4 yards per rush to a Lions offense that put up only 210 yards. The last time these two teams met was on October 7, 2017 as the Spartans picked up the 14-10 road win as they also covered as 13-point road underdogs. The Wolverines, it would be important to note, are 0-5 ATS in their last five meetings in East Lansing while they are 1-10 ATS in their last eleven meetings, overall, versus the Spartans.
Michigan Wolverines's Latest Performance :
The Wolverines were not looking ahead as they took care of the 19th ranked Wisconsin Badgers in week seven in outscoring them 25-6 in the second half thanks to a Shea Patterson rushing TD along with a Dylan McCaffrey 44-yard scamper and a Lavert Hill 21-yard pick six off Alex Hornibrook to seal the blowout win for the Wolverines. Patterson only ended with 145 passing yards, but, would have 90 yards rushing along with a TD in the win as well. Karan Higden led the Michigan ground attack with 105 yards for the day along with a score as the rushing attack racked up 320 yards for an average of 6.7 yards per carry. The defense allowed the Badgers to hold the ball for only 22 minutes while allowing just 100 passing yards along with 183 yards on the ground, a bit much for a rush defense that entered the game ranked 14th in the nation in allowing just 109 yards per game. Nonetheless, the Wolverines are ranked in the top ten in points allowed this season with 15.4 while their pass defense (129 yards per game) along with total yards (238) are exceptional as they are ranked 1st and 2nd, respectively.
Michigan State Spartans's Latest Performance :
Michigan State went into Beaver Stadium last Saturday and came out with a victory due to allowing the home team only 397 yards total for the game while Trace McSorley threw for only 192 yards along with a touchdown toss. The rushing game for PSU, however, kept them in the game as they racked up 205 yards with Miles Sanders leading the way with 162 yards on the ground along with a score. Nonetheless, the Lions converted only three for 14 third down conversions while collecting only 14 first downs for the game. Brian Lewerke was a huge catalyst in the game in throwing for 259 yards, two TD’s, along with an interception as Felton Davis III finished with 110 yards and two touchdown catches. MSU dominated time of possession for over 34 minutes as they picked up their third win in four outings after beginning the season 1-1 in shaky contests versus Utah State along with a loss at Arizona State. Since then, they dropped only one contest at home to Northwestern while continuing to allow opponents to score an average of 21 points per game while the offense has put up 27 points per game during this time. Receiver Felton Davis III is questionable for this contest due to an undisclosed injury for the Spartans.
How Michigan Wolverines & Michigan State Spartans Matchup.
Vegas Odds, Offshore Odds, & Odds ATS:
Michigan is 4-3 ATS while the OU is 4-3
Michigan State is 2-4 ATS while the OU is 4-2
In-Depth Analysis of each team:
This game will certainly be an interesting one in that Michigan has won six straight since dropping their first game of the season while the Spartans are slowly getting their act together after winning a huge matchup on the road versus Penn State last week. In other words, neither team will be lacking in confidence entering this matchup. With that being said, look for the Spartans to really establish themselves up front, particularly on defense as they possess the top ranked rush defense in the country, in which to neutralize Michigan’s rushing attack that puts up over 200 yards per game. On the other hand, their pass secondary, which is known to give up big plays must be able to perform much the same way it did versus McSorley and the PSU passing game in somehow controlling Patterson and the Michigan passing attack that puts up 207 yards per game. Lewerke and the 34th ranked passing game for the Spartans will find it difficult this week to pass against Michigan’s stellar pass defense while its rushing attack, currently averaging 123 yards per game, will have to gain some ground on a stingy Michigan rush defense that allows only 108 yards per outing.
Against The Spread Selection: Pick: Michigan Wolverines +7
My reason for the pick :
Of course, this will be a competitive, low scoring contest between two teams that have a healthy dislike for each other as the Wolverines will travel to Spartan Stadium to battle a MSU team that continues to gain a healthy amount of confidence as the season progresses. The problem is that I feel as though there are many who have become enamored with the Spartans’ win over the Nittany Lions last week, thus explaining the spread. In other words, many have totally forgotten that Michigan is still a solid team that is very tough on the defensive end. And with the inconsistencies that Michigan State has shown on offense this season along with Michigan’s ability to hold teams to only 238 total yards per game, this will be a struggle throughout. In all, I will gladly take the road team in this instance with the points as I believe that they will not only cover, but, have a chance to win outright as well.
Totals Selection: Pick: Under 41.5
My reason for the prediction :
The under will indeed be the play in this matchup with two stingy defenses taking the field versus two average offenses that come in averaging a combined 28 points per game this year. The under has been the play in recent matchups amongst these teams and with this being a rivalry game to where conference positioning will certainly play a role after its conclusion, expect for the focus and intensity to be there for both teams as the total will not exceed 40 points.
Betting trends for Michigan Wolverines:
- Wolverines are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games.
- Wolverines are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Over is 5-0 in Wolverines last 5 games in October.
Betting trends for Michigan State Spartans:
- Over is 4-0 in Spartans last 4 home games.
- Over is 6-0 in Spartans last 6 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Spartans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS win.