Vanderbilt Commodores (3-4) vs Kentucky Wildcats (5-1)Date : 10/21/2018
Time : 7:30 pm EST
Location : Kroger Field, Lexington, Kentucky
Pick, Prediction, & Preview:
Vanderbilt Commodores vs Kentucky Wildcats
The Vanderbilt Cardinals will travel to Kroger Field in Lexington, Kentucky, to take on the 20th ranked Kentucky Wildcats on Saturday night at 7:30 pm EST. The last time these two teams met was on November 11, 2017 as the Wildcats picked up the 44-21 blowout win as they also covered as 2.5 road underdogs. In their last outing, the Commodores lost by a 37-27 score at home versus the Florida Gators last Saturday as Florida outscored the home team 24-6 in the second half en route to the road win. The Wildcats suffered a loss in their last outing as well on the road to the Texas A&M Aggies by a 20-14 score as they lost out on the spread as five points underdogs. The under is 5-1 in the last six meetings while the favorite is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings in this series. Finally, the Commodores are 5-2 ATS in the last seven games versus the Wildcats.
Vanderbilt Commodores's Latest Performance :
Vandy lost their second straight game while dropping four of their last five outings, overall, in falling at home to the Florida Gators last Saturday as they relinquished a 21-13 halftime lead as the Gators outscored them 24-6 in the second half due to two touchdowns for Felipe Franks along with a Jordan Scarlett 48 yard touchdown run early in the fourth to put the road team up by a 27-21 score. Florida doubled their first down output for the game with 31 compared to only 17 for the Commodores while converting 12 of 19 third down conversions. They also racked up 576 total yards for the game while giving up 336 yards to Vanderbilt in the win. Most importantly, despite three turnovers collected by Vanderbilt along with 85 yards in penalties for Florida, the Vandy defense allowed the Gators to possess 9.8-yard average per catch while giving up 292 yards on the ground for a 4.6 average per rush. The Commodores, on the other hand held the ball for only 23 minutes in the game while the rushing attack put up only 107 yards on the day with Keyshawn Vaughn leading the way with 59 yards on seven carries while having 79 receiving yards on one catch. Kyle Shurmur was average in the contest as he threw for 229 yards, two TD’s, along with one pick in the game.
Kentucky Wildcats 's Latest Performance :
Kentucky took a major step back on the road versus the Aggies of Texas A&M on October 6th as they allowed 164 yards rushing to the home team as Trayveon Williams scorched their rush defense for 138 yards and a touchdown while sealing the victory in overtime with a ten-yard score. The defense also allowed 21 first downs on the night compared to only eight for the Wildcats while Kellen Mond threw for 226 yards, two TD’s and a pick as the passing game averaged 7.5 yards per catch. Kentucky struggled on offense as well during this game as their rushing attack ended with only 70 yards with Benny Snell finishing with 60 yards on 13 rushes while the passing game averaged 5.4 yards per catch with Terry Wilson throwing for only 108 yards and a touchdown pass to Lynn Bowden Jr, who had three receptions with 55 yards for the night. Furthermore, the Wildcats converted only two of 13 third down attempts on the day as they dropped their first game of the season. They now look to get back on track versus Vanderbilt, whose defense ranks in the lower tier as it relates to all major defensive categories, yet are allowing 26 points per game to their opponents.
How Vanderbilt Commodores & Kentucky Wildcats Matchup.
Vegas Odds, Offshore Odds, & Odds ATS:
Vanderbilt is 3-4 ATS while the OU is 2-5
Kentucky is 3-3 ATS while the OU is 2-4
In-Depth Analysis of each team:
Things will not be easier for Vanderbilt as they now go on the road to face an angry Kentucky squad that dropped its first game of 2018 and will certainly be looking to get back into the win column. The Commodores have allowed at least 30 points to their opponents in four of their last five games while the offense put up only 21 points per game during this time. Kentucky currently averages 29 points per game while their defense is ranked 4th in the nation in allowing just 13.4 points per game. In all, there will be a slight margin for error for the Commodores in this matchup as they will certainly find it difficult to move the ball versus a Kentucky team that is allowing just 306 yards per game, good for 11th in the country.
Against The Spread Selection: Pick: Kentucky Wildcats -11
My reason for the pick :
Kentucky received a huge wake up call last weekend versus the Aggies and will get back on track against a Vanderbilt is a team that flat out allows too many big plays on defense. They are ranked 98th in total yards allowed with 424 yards per game while the Wildcats put up an average of 324 yards per game. It will be interesting, particularly after a lackluster performance versus the Aggies, to see if the Wildcats can control the trenches versus a rush defense for the Commodores that allows 180 yards per game on the ground to their opponents. In all, the Wildcats will cover the spread in this contest as they will go back to basics versus a struggling Commodores squad: Running the ball effectively while controlling the trenches for four quarters.
Totals Selection: Pick: Under 48
My reason for the prediction :
The under has been the play in the last two games for the Wildcats while also being the play in the last two road games for the Commodores as they averaged only 15 points in their matchups versus Florida and Notre Dame. Furthermore, with the Wildcats still possessing one of the more dominant defenses in the country, look for Vandy to struggle on the offensive end in this contest while their defense will allow the Wildcats to pound them on the ground throughout the game as the under will certainly be the strong play.
Betting trends for Vanderbilt Commodores:
- Commodores are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Over is 5-0 in Commodores last 5 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Commodores are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
Betting trends for Kentucky Wildcats :
- Wildcats are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in October.
- Wildcats are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0 in Wildcats last 4 conference games.