Baylor Bears (4-3) vs West Virginia Mountaineers (5-1)Date : 10/25/2018
Time : 7:00 pm EST
Location : Mountaineers Stadium, Morgantown, West Virginia
Pick, Prediction, & Preview:
Baylor Bears vs West Virginia Mountaineers
The Baylor Bears will travel to Mountaineer Stadium in Morgantown, West Virginia, to take on the 13th ranked West Virginia Mountaineers in a Big 12 showdown on Thursday night at 7 pm EST. The Mountaineers picked up the 38-36 victory on the road last year on October 21, 2017 yet the Bears ultimately covered the spread. In fact, the Bears are 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings versus West Virginia. On the other hand, the home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five outings amongst these two teams, overall. West Virginia lost their first game of the season as they fell on the road to the Iowa State Cyclones in their last outing by a 31-14 score as the Cyclones tough and aggressive defense shut down Will Grier and the Mountaineer offense in the second half while cruising to the victory. Baylor also suffered a road loss in a 23-17 defeat to the Texas Longhorns in week eight as they allowed 23 points to the home team in the first half and despite scoring a touchdown early in the third period, were not able to claim the lead or the victory. Needless to say, both teams will be looking to get back on the winning track after deflating losses.
Baylor Bears's Latest Performance :
Baylor allowed the Longhorns twenty points in the second quarter as Shane Buechele threw a touchdown pass while Lil’Jordan Humphrey ran for a touchdown. These proved to be the plays of the night combined with three crucial field goals by Cameron Dicker, that allowed the Longhorns to dispose of the Baylor Bears at home in their last time out. Baylor’s terrible rush defense allowed 177 yards on the ground to the Longhorns while racking up 109 yards worth of penalties for the game. Their offense only put up 88 yards on the ground along with its passing attack, ranked one of the best in the country, only mustered 240 yards against a Texas defense that has defending the pass well this year. In all, Charlie Brewer threw for 240 yards and a touchdown while leading the rushing attack (of lack thereof) with 22 yards on 13 carries. Denzel Mims had three catches for 80 yards and a TD while Jalen Hurd had five catches for 72 yards in the loss.
West Virginia Mountaineers's Latest Performance :
West Virginia was only down 20-14 at the half versus the Iowa State Cyclones, however, the home team scored ten points in the final period thanks to a Brock Purdy passing touchdown along with a safety by the Cyclones after sacking Will Grier in the endzone sealed the victory while giving the Mountaineers their first loss of the season. West Virginia’s offense, which came into the game averaging 37 points along with 464 total yards per game, had only 152 yards for the night as Grier threw for only 100 yards, a TD, along with a pick. On the other hand, the rushing attack only garnered 1.9 yards per carry. To complicate things even more, West Virginia had 109 yards in penalties while going one for ten on third down. On the other hand, their 46th ranked defense in the nation allowed 244 yards on the ground while allowing the passing game for Iowa state to collect over ten yards per catch. They now face a team in Baylor that they have had success against in the pass, however, must be able to contain their passing attack that ranks just behind them in yardage per game with 313 per.
How Baylor Bears & West Virginia Mountaineers Matchup.
Vegas Odds, Offshore Odds, & Odds ATS:
Baylor is 2-4-1 ATS while the OU is 5-2
West Virginia is 4-2 ATS while the OU is 2-4
In-Depth Analysis of each team:
West Virginia will be looking for a solid performance versus a potentially dangerous passing attack for the Bears while Baylor will be looking to get back on the winning track as well as they have allowed over 40 points to their opponents in the last three games. Baylor has indeed had success versus the Mountaineers in recent matchups, however, and will certainly have some opportunities to put some points on the board with their passing offense that is headed by Brewer and Hurd. The problem that Baylor will run into is that the Mountaineers continue to allow only 21 points per game and are stout on the defensive end, altogether. With that being said, this will be an interesting yet offensive minded matchup that will be sure to have the scoreboard lighting up often, primarily in favor of the home team.
Against The Spread Selection: Pick: West Virginia Mountaineers -13.5
My reason for the pick :
The Problem that I have with Baylor is that they are simply unable to keep teams from scoring this year. And with the Mountaineers winning each of their home games this year by ten points or more along with Baylor struggling against conference teams on the road in 2018, expect the Mountaineers to get back on track with a victory in this contest while covering the spread in what will be an offensive barrage for Grier and company. Again, Baylor will provide a challenge for the Mountaineers for much of the game, however, the home team will indeed pull away late due to their dangerous passing game along with Baylor continuously being shaky within their defensive secondary.
Totals Selection: Pick: Over
My reason for the prediction :
I will back the over in this contest as West Virginia, after scoring less than 35 points in their first game this season last weekend, will certainly be looking to ring up the score on a Baylor defense that allows too many yards per game along with points, for that matter. As stated, Baylor will keep the game interesting for a bit, thus allowing the over to be surpassed. Nonetheless, WVU will pull away late in this contest as Grier and the passing game will shine to atone for a horrible showing versus the Cyclones.
Betting trends for Baylor Bears:
- Bears are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS win.
- Over is 10-2-1 in Bears last 13 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 5-1 in Bears last 6 games on fieldturf.
Betting trends for West Virginia Mountaineers:
- Mountaineers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in October.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Mountaineers last 5 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Mountaineers are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss.