Troy Trojans (4-3) vs South Alabama Jaguars (3-5)Date : 10/23/2018
Time : 8:00 pm EST
Location : Ladds-Peebles Stadium, Mobile, Alabama
Pick, Prediction, & Preview:
Troy Trojans vs South Alabama Jaguars
The Tory Trojans will travel to meet the South Alabama Jaguars on Tuesday night at Ladds-Peebles Stadium in Mobile, Alabama, for a start time of 8 pm EST. The last time these two teams met was on October 11, 2017 when the Jaguars pulled off the upset by a 19-8 score on the road as they racked up 224 yards on the ground while taking advantage of three fumbles and an interception by Troy to get the win. The Trojans are fresh off a 22-16 setback on the road versus the Liberty Flames on a last second touchdown pass from a dangerous passing attack for Liberty that saw the Trojans relinquish a 16-14 lead with only 2 minutes remaining in the game. The Jaguars, on the other hand, picked up a 45-6 home win over the Alabama State Hornets as they halted a three-game skid by racking up 185 rush yards along with averaging over 12 yards per catch in the victory. Both teams are coming off bye weeks and would love to pick up a Sun Belt Conference victory in this contest.
Troy Trojans's Latest Performance :
Troy drew first blood on the Liberty Flames last Saturday on a Sawyer Smith 23-yard touchdown pass to Deondre Douglas to put them up 7-0; However, the Flames got a touchdown passes from Stephen Calvert along with a rush TD from Peyton Pickett as Liberty went up 14-10 at the half. Troy used two Tyler Sumpter field goals in the second half to put the road team up 16-14 before Calvert found B.J. Farrow for what was the winning touchdown late in the fourth quarter to seal the victory. Troy’s 35th ranked rushing attack put up 133 yards for the game led by Smith with 111 yards and a score while he threw for only 135 yards and a score as their passing attack only averaged 5.3 yards per catch. The defense allowed 341 yards total to the Flames as Calvert passed for 238 yards and two scores along with a pick in the matchup as they capitalized off three turnovers from the Trojans to win the game. The loss halted a five-game winning streak for Troy as they will now look to lick their wounds before taking on a squad that they have had issues with in the past as it relates to covering the spread.
South Alabama Jaguars's Latest Performance :
One would not have thought that the Jaguars of South Alabama were only putting up around 16 points per game in their last three outings as they put up 28 points in the first half versus the Hornets of Alabama State in their last outing on October 13th en route to a huge confidence building victory. The defense for the Jaguars held the Hornets to only 219 yards for the game while allowing only eleven first downs on the night. On the other hand, South Alabama averaged 4.2 yards per carry for 185 yards on the night led by Deonta Moore who finished with 65 yards on eleven carries while QB Evan Orth threw for 155 yards and a TD pass as the passing attack averaged 12.4 yards rushing for the contest. Both their wins this season came at home, albeit against less than stellar competition as they averaged 43 points per game versus Texas State along with Alabama State while allowing 19 points during those wins. The good thing is that the Jags have had success versus the Trojans ATS in recent matchups.
How Troy Trojans & South Alabama Jaguars Matchup.
Vegas Odds, Offshore Odds, & Odds ATS:
Troy is 4-2-1 ATS while the OU is 5-2
South Alabama is 3-3-1 ATS while the OU is 6-1
In-Depth Analysis of each team:
Again, while the Trojans will be ready to take the field after a dismal performance versus the Flames last week, the Jags picked up some momentum in their last outing by beating up on an outmatched Alabama State Hornets team. With that being the case, the Trojans will need to get back to basics in getting their running game back on track while also cutting down on the turnovers in this matchup. South Alabama will be opportunistic in this game; However, Troy must keep their focus as they should beat this team handily. Besides, they certainly do not want a repeat performance of their game versus Liberty in their last time out.
Against The Spread Selection: Pick: Troy Trojans
My reason for the pick :
Expect the Trojans to come out with a vengeance in Tuesday’s matchup after their terrible loss to Liberty. If they remain focused in this matchup, I happen to feel as though they will certainly run away with this game very early; However, if they attempt to overlook this Jaguars team, they may find themselves in yet another struggle as the Jaguars, as stated, have had success ATS versus Troy in the past. With that being said, Troy got their wake-up call last week and will certainly handle business versus a Jaguars team that has allowed 50 points in their last two Sun Belt games while averaging only 10 on offense.
Totals Selection: Pick: Under
My reason for the prediction :
Expect for the Trojans to struggle a bit after the loss of Kaleb Barker under center. However, also look for Troy to gain some momentum in this matchup as the Jaguars have been very giving on the defensive end to Sun Belt teams thus far in 2018. Also, the Jaguars will once again sink back into mediocrity on offense once Troy clamps down on their 110th ranked rushing attack while allowing their 89th ranked passing attack to beat them. In all, look for the under to be the play as it has been in four of the last six meetings amongst these two squads.
Betting trends for Troy Trojans:
- The total has gone OVER in 6 of South Alabama’s last 7 games
- South Alabama is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
- South Alabama is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Troy
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of South Alabama’s last 6 games when playing Troy
Betting trends for South Alabama Jaguars:
- Troy is 8-2-1 ATS in its last 11 games
- Troy is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
- The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Troy’s last 10 games on the road
- Troy is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing South Alabama
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Troy’s last 6 games when playing South Alabama