Cincinnati Bearcats (6-1) vs SMU Mustangs (3-4)Date : 10/27/2018
Time : 3:30 pm EST
Location : Gerald J. Ford Stadium, University Park, Texas
Pick, Prediction, & Preview:
Cincinnati Bearcats vs SMU Mustangs
The Cincinnati Bearcats will travel to Gerald J Ford Stadium in University Park, Texas, to battle the SMU Mustangs in an AAC battle on Saturday afternoon at 3:30 pm EST. The Bearcats are coming off their first loss of the season as they suffered a 24-17 road loss to the Temple Owls last Saturday as Anthony Russo sealed the victory for Temple with a touchdown pass in overtime to Isiah Wright. The Mustangs escaped Tulane in their last outing by getting the 27-23 road win as Ben Hicks threw a game winning touchdown pass to seal the victory for the Mustangs while allowing them to win their third game in four outings. The last time these teams met was on October 21, 2017 when SMU picked up the 31-28 road win while the Bearcats covered as 5.5 home underdogs.
Cincinnati Bearcats's Latest Performance :
Cincinnati suffered heir first loss of the season to Temple last weekend as Temple’s QB Anthony Russo, despite having three picks in the game, threw for three touchdowns in the game, including the game winner in overtime to seal the victory for the Owls. Michael Warren II was the lone shining star for Cincinnati as he rushed for 132 yards and a score in the loss while the passing attack was nonexistent as Desmond Ridder throwing for only 111 yards along with an interception. Nonetheless, the Bearcats will come into this matchup with the 12th ranked rushing attack and will test the 99th ranked rush defense for the Mustangs that allow almost 200 yards per game. Also, SMU allows 37 points per game to their opponents for the year while allowing 33 points at home this year.
SMU Mustangs 's Latest Performance :
SMU has been on a roll lately. Despite their 3-4 record, they are 3-1 in the AAC West division, only behind the Houston Cougars which ranks first in the division. They have won two of their last three games at home and may be getting the Bearcats at their weakest points as they did not perform well at all versus Temple last weekend. Nonetheless, the Mustangs did not fall into the losing category last weekend as they were 27-23 winners against Tulane as Ben Hicks threw for 291 yards along with three touchdown passes, with one being the game winner to James Proche to give the Mustangs the lead with 1:15 left in the game while Proche and Reggie Robertson Jr combined for 13 catches for 192 yards and two TD’s. The defense for the Mustangs collected three turnovers yet gave up 168 yards on the day for a 3.7 yards per carry average. With success versus the Bearcats in recent matchups, look for Hicks and the passing attack to test Cincy’s 8th ranked pass defense in their matchup on Saturday.
How Cincinnati Bearcats & SMU Mustangs Matchup.
Vegas Odds, Offshore Odds, & Odds ATS:
Cincinnati is 5-2 ATS while the OU is 3-4
SMU is 3-4 ATS while the OU is 3-4
In-Depth Analysis of each team:
Both teams stand at 2-1 within the AAC East and West divisions and badly in need of a win. SMU needs to keep the pressure on Houston while the Bearcats would love to rebound from their loss last weekend. Besides, the Bearcats have remaining games versus the top teams within the East division in UCF along with USF this year, so, they need to continue to win while hoping to pull off the upset later in the year to advance in the rankings. In all, expect this to be an entertaining matchup amongst two teams that has won consistently lately.
Against The Spread Selection: Pick: SMU Mustangs +9.5
My reason for the pick :
I will certainly back the Mustangs at home in this matchup as Hicks has much to prove since being reinserted back into the starting lineup. And after throwing the game winner in his first start back, he should really feel great leading into this matchup. As stated, the Mustangs have won three of their last four games and will certainly love to snake bite a Cincy team that is coming off their first loss of the season. And while the Bearcats have the better defense, look for the Mustangs to remain in this game due to their ability to pass the ball effectively while stuffing the 12th ranked rushing attack for Cincinnati in forcing them to rely more on their 112th ranked passing attack.
Totals Selection: Pick: Under 52.5
My reason for the prediction :
The under has been the play in all four road games for the Cincinnati Bearcats this year while being the result in the last two games for the Bearcats. With that being the case, along with the under being the play in last year’s matchup, I expect this to be a low scoring affair as both teams will attempt to control the trenches, thus preventing many points from being scored. As stated, Cincy indeed has the better defense, however, they have allowed only 12 points on average to opponents this year.
Betting trends for Cincinnati Bearcats:
- Under is 4-0 in Bearcats last 4 road games.
- Over is 5-0 in Bearcats last 5 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Bearcats are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Betting trends for SMU Mustangs :
- Under is 5-0 in Mustangs last 5 games in October.
- Over is 5-0 in Mustangs last 5 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 6-1 in Mustangs last 7 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.