Iowa Hawkeyes (6-1) vs Penn State Nittany Lions (5-2)Date : 10/27/2018
Time : 3:30 pm EST
Location : Beaver stadium, University Park, Pennsylvania
Pick, Prediction, & Preview:
Iowa Hawkeyes vs Penn State Nittany Lions
The 18th ranked Iowa Hawkeyes will travel to Beaver Stadium in University Park, Pennsylvania, for a Big Ten matchup versus the 16th ranked Penn State Nittany Lions on Saturday at 3:30 pm EST. The last time these two teams met was on September 23, 2017 as the Nittany Lions and Hawkeyes played a thriller with Penn State picking up the 21-19 road win while Iowa covered as 13-point home underdogs. The Hawkeyes won their third straight game by beating up on the Maryland Terrapins in their last outing by a 23-0 score at home as the Hawkeyes racked up 224 rushing yards while holding Maryland to only 68 yards on the ground. The Nittany Lions picked up the 33-28 road win over the Indiana Hoosiers last Saturday as Trace McSorley scored two rushing touchdowns while throwing for 220 yards in the win, thus halting a two-game losing streak. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five games while the under is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings at Beaver Stadium.
Iowa Hawkeyes's Latest Performance :
Iowa has won three straight games while covering the spread in each contest. Their offense is putting up 38 points per game, however, the defense is where the strength of this team lies as they have allowed only 15 points per game in their last three overall. In fact, the Hawkeyes picked up a huge 23-0 shutout win over the Maryland Terrapins last week as their rushing attack was the headliner in racking up 224 yards for the game while its defense only allowed 115 yards total for a Terrapins team that came into the game with a 4-2 record along with being 2-1 in the conference. QB Nathan Stanley ended the game with only 86 yards, a TD, along with an interception, however, Ivory Kelly Martin had 98 yards on the ground on 24 rushes.
Finally, the defense also put a touchdown on the board with Anthony Nelson recovering a fumble in the endzone to end the scoring for Iowa on the day. In all, the Hawkeyes are equipped to win this contest and will carry their confidence along with their highly ranked defense that is ranked in the top 10 in each category except pass defense (19th) into Beaver stadium looking for the upset.
Penn State Nittany Lions's Latest Performance :
It had been a rough couple weeks for Penn State as they fell in two Big Ten games amongst two highly ranked and touted squads in Ohio State and Michigan State. Nonetheless, they were able to shake off their losses, temporarily, with a win over the Indiana Hoosiers at home last weekend. They would, however, lose out on the spread as 14-point home favorites as they fell to 0-2 versus the spread in as many games. They are now ranked third in the Big Ten east division with Michigan and Ohio State manning the first and second place slots. With a battle with Michigan in two weeks, the Nittany Lions can only hope that they will have a shot to, at most, be a spoiler for the Wolverines should they continue to hold on to the top spot when their matchup rolls around.
Nonetheless, they took care of business versus the Hoosiers as the road team actually went up 21-20 late in the third quarter until Trace McSorley took over to score two rushing touchdowns for the day in providing a cushion for the home team while ultimately getting the much-needed win in the meantime. They will certainly be met with a challenge in the Hawkeyes, who are currently in second place within the Big Ten West division with a 3-1 conference record, while attempting to stay on the heels of the Wildcats of Northwestern in the top spot. Penn State continues to have a top ranked rushing attack while averaging 43 points per game and will look to exploit Iowa in this area. However, the visitors are 3rd in the nation in rush defense while giving up only 79 yards per game.
How Iowa Hawkeyes & Penn State Nittany Lions Matchup.
Vegas Odds, Offshore Odds, & Odds ATS:
Iowa’s is 6-1 ATS while the OU is 4-3
Penn State is 4-3 ATS while the OU is 5-2
In-Depth Analysis of each team:
Again, Penn State should really get ready for a physical and tough matchup with an Iowa team that can score points, but, relies on controlling the trenches on defense in which to win games. Penn State halted their two-game losing streak their last time out and will hope to pick up yet another win in which to build confidence; However, the Hawkeyes are eyeing the top spot in the West division of the Big Ten and will certainly come into the contest motivated to get an all-important win on the road.
Against The Spread Selection: Pick: Iowa Hawkeyes +6.5
My reason for the pick :
I will back the road team in this instance as you can never go wrong in picking a team that has proven to be a defensive minded squad with a punishing running game. Combine this with the fact that they have experience at quarterback as well as at the skilled position, Iowa will not only cover the spread, but, will also have a chance to pull off a big upset against a Penn State team that has been thoroughly beaten up the past few weeks. In fact, they would almost fall to Indiana last weekend if not for McSorley pulling magic from within his hat. With that being said, look for the Hawkeyes to perform better than what the sportsbooks seemingly thinks.
Totals Selection: Pick: Under 52.5
My reason for the prediction :
I will back the under as you have a struggling offense in McSorley and the Nittany Lions going to battle with an Iowa team that thrives on defense on a weekly basis. On the other hand, Penn State’s defense only allows 22 points per game and will be matched up versus an Iowa offense that is a potentially dangerous unit that will be looking to give notice that they are for real. In all, defense will rule the day in this matchup as the total will remain way below its set limit.
Betting trends for Iowa Hawkeyes:
- Hawkeyes are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games in October.
- Over is 5-0 in Hawkeyes last 5 road games.
- Hawkeyes are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games.
Betting trends for Penn State Nittany Lions:
- Nittany Lions are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Over is 4-0 in Nittany Lions last 4 games following an ATS loss.
- Over is 8-1 in Nittany Lions last 9 games following a straight up win.